March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

If we're going to go by analogs, what is the best analog for this summer? You brought up 1997 in the summer prediction thread, which had average temperatures (save a cool June) and no smoke. Are you still sticking by 1997?

I think that’s one of the best ones, yeah. The closest match we have right now. Nearly perfect with QBO/solar and OKW cycles, both developing El Niños, etc.

 

Also 2002 is potentially decent. 1990 would be okay if it wasn’t for solar. And 1993 is messed up by volcanic effects in the stratosphere but otherwise would be solid. And there’s 1988 which is debatable..but it will not work from July onwards unless the niño collapses.

[Phil]

There’s that EVIL year again.

 

FYI: “Bombcyclone” refers to the one over the Plains last week (since every other storm is being called that now).

 

[Omegaraptor]

I think that’s one of the best ones, yeah. The closest match we have right now. Nearly perfect with QBO/solar and OKW cycles, both developing El Niños, etc.

 

Also 2002 is potentially decent. 1990 would be okay if it wasn’t for solar. And 1993 is messed up by volcanic effects in the stratosphere but otherwise would be solid. And there’s 1987 which is debatable..but it will not work from July onwards unless the niño collapses.

 

1997 was a fairly average summer outside of June but one thing interesting about it was its almost complete lack of any heat whatsoever. It was just moderate the entire summer. Is this because the Pacific High prevailed and the Four Corners high almost never reached in?

 

Also I actually didn't know about the volcanic eruption in 1991. Would Portland have had a normal summer in 1993 instead of the springfall it had if that volcano hadn't gone off? Interestingly May was warmer than average and September was actually fairly decent that year.

 

But then again, simply going by analogs doesn't guarantee anything, because weather can change in unpredictable ways. Best to just wait for later in spring to make better predictions. For all we know this could just be another hot, dry, and smoky summer, and the five-week cold snap was just a blip in what would otherwise be a warm and dry year, although I hope that isn't the case.

[TT-SEA]

Have you heard about the historic flooding in the Plains and Midwest?

 

I forget, what was that other year that featured similarly cataclysmic flooding out there? I think Clinton was President at the time..

 

That was endless heavy rain in June and July... not snow melt.   But you knew that.    

[Phil]

1997 was a fairly average summer outside of June but one thing interesting about it was its almost complete lack of any heat whatsoever. It was just moderate the entire summer. Is this because the Pacific High prevailed and the Four Corners high almost never reached in?

It wasn’t the NPAC high. It was the eastward extension of the NPAC low/jet into the PNW. Which is a possibility at times this year, but probably not until the final warming is well underway. I think this year could follow the +QBO/+ENSO script quite well..amplified waves and some warm periods across the West during the Spring as the system transitions from polar vortex/Siberian High to polar anticyclone/monsoonal trough, then a more zonal pattern during the warm season, trending warmer than average in A/S/O.

 

The moisture source looks great in the long run, as far as I’m able to decipher, so I’m definitely leaning towards a wetter summer, or at least one with more moisture in the airmasses. It should also end up warmer than average overall, but perhaps not by much.

 

Also I actually didn't know about the volcanic eruption in 1991. Would Portland have had a normal summer in 1993 instead of the springfall it had if that volcano hadn't gone off? Interestingly May was warmer than average and September was actually fairly decent that year.

It might have been similar to 1997. The z-cells/tropical convection were all weird that that year, but it wouldn’t have been warm.

 

But then again, simply going by analogs doesn't guarantee anything, because weather can change in unpredictable ways. Best to just wait for later in spring to make better predictions. For all we know this could just be another hot, dry, and smoky summer, and the five-week cold snap was just a blip in what would otherwise be a warm and dry year, although I hope that isn't the case.

This is definitely true. You can only aggregate the largest analogous series of years’ possible, hope your hypothesized physical linkages are legitimate, and hope to extract a viable low pass signal from the noise.

[Phil]

To be clear, just because I have 1997 as my top analog doesn’t mean I’m predicting a super niño this year.

 

But it’s actually a possibility. Perhaps not “likely” from a statistical perspective, but the present boundary conditions could easily allow for such an event.

[GHweatherChris]

Phil is triggered!

[Omegaraptor]

It wasn’t the NPAC high. It was the eastward extension of the NPAC low/jet into the PNW. Which is a possibility at times this year, but probably not until the final warming is well underway. I think this year could follow the +QBO/+ENSO script quite well..amplified waves and some warm periods across the West during the Spring as the system transitions from polar vortex/Siberian High to polar anticyclone/monsoonal trough, then a more zonal pattern during the warm season, trending warmer than average in A/S/O.

 

The moisture source looks great in the long run, as far as I’m able to decipher, so I’m definitely leaning towards a wetter summer, or at least one with more moisture in the airmasses. It should also end up warmer than average overall, but perhaps not by much.

 

 

It might have been similar to 1997. The z-cells/tropical convection were all weird that that year, but it wouldn’t have been warm.

 

 

This is definitely true. You can only aggregate the largest analogous series of years’ possible, hope your hypothesized physical linkages are legitimate, and hope to extract a viable low pass signal from the noise.

 

 

To be clear, just because I have 1997 as my top analog doesn’t mean I’m predicting a super niño this year.

 

But it’s actually a possibility. Perhaps not “likely” from a statistical perspective, but the present boundary conditions could easily allow for such an event.

 

Excellent analysis Phil! Thank you so much.

 

A wet and slightly warmer than normal summer is exactly what I want. 

[Phil]

Excellent analysis Phil! Thank you so much.

 

A wet and slightly warmer than normal summer is exactly what I want.

Thanks, and no problem.

 

And I could always be wrong. We’ll see.

[Jesse]

I want a pony. Thoughts, Phil?

[Omegaraptor]

Accuweather 90 day, the best weather/climate source, is showing a very dry May.

 

[Jesse]

What a nasty pattern we look to be stuck in the next several days. Although maybe it’s a good thing we are getting the payback from the cold out of the way now rather than later. Clean slate...

[Timmy]

What a nasty pattern we look to be stuck in the next several days. Although maybe it’s a good thing we are getting the payback from the cold out of the way now rather than later. Clean slate...

it’s a lot less nasty when you go out and enjoy sunny and 70!

[Timmy Supercell]

What a nasty pattern we look to be stuck in the next several days. Although maybe it’s a good thing we are getting the payback from the cold out of the way now rather than later. Clean slate...

 

I'm sure it goes back to 50-55 and rain in April. Your kind of weather. 

[Jesse]

it’s a lot less nasty when you go out and enjoy sunny and 70!

 

You must have missed my hiking pics! Although fortunately it was cooler out that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60/40 here today. 

[TT-SEA]

Crazy warm evening... 64 at SEA and 63 in North Bend.   That is a pretty normal late evening in the summer.

 

62 here and breezy here so I did a little experiment.   I broke off a chunk of the remaining snowbank at the end of the driveway about the size of a football and set in the middle of the driveway about 2 hours ago.   Just checked and its unchanged.    The road was wet around the edges of the snowbank.   

 

But it appears that even 62 degrees and breezy does not melt snow sitting exposed in the middle of the driveway at night.   Its actually still hard and icy.   So strange.   

 

I set another chunk in the middle of the driveway this afternoon in the sun and it disappeared almost immediately.

[ewnichols25]

66* on the coast in Taholah with a dp of 27. Double downsloping!

[ShawniganLake]

The Environment Canada weather summary is showing 26 record highs in western Canada today.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Crazy warm evening... 64 at SEA and 63 in North Bend.   That is a pretty normal late evening in the summer.

 

62 here and breezy here so I did a little experiment.   I broke off a chunk of the remaining snowbank at the end of the driveway about the size of a football and set in the middle of the driveway about 2 hours ago.   Just checked and its unchanged.    The road was wet around the edges of the snowbank.   

 

But it appears that even 62 degrees and breezy does not melt snow sitting exposed in the middle of the driveway at night.   Its actually still hard and icy.   So strange.   

 

I set another chunk in the middle of the driveway this afternoon in the sun and it disappeared almost immediately.

 

I see it all the time in the summer outside ice rinks.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 00Z GFS switched back to troughier for early next week.

[Jesse]

The Environment Canada weather summary is showing 26 record highs in western Canada today.

 

Were any record lows set in the recent spell of cold weather.

[ShawniganLake]

Were any record lows set in the recent spell of cold weather.

I don’t remember seeing any but I wasn’t checking for them that frequently either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After this week things get back to normal pretty much.

[Omegaraptor]

After this week things get back to normal pretty much.

 

I'm fine with that. No long dry spells, no inane arctic temperatures. Bring on some normal spring weather. Couple days of showers, couple days of sun, repeat.

[Jesse]

I don’t remember seeing any but I wasn’t checking for them that frequently either.

 

Seems we had quite a few south of the border but I never took a count.

[Jesse]

Uh oh, Sounder's on the weather side now. Tell me I should be put in a concentration camp and gassed for wanting the rain to come back!

[Guest Sounder]

Uh oh, Sounder's on the weather side now. Tell me I should be put in a concentration camp and gassed for wanting the rain to come back!

At least it sounds like you understand your crimes.

[TT-SEA]

Uh oh, Sounder's on the weather side now. Tell me I should be put in a concentration camp and gassed for wanting the rain to come back!

I want rain too!

[TT-SEA]

After this week things get back to normal pretty much.

 

But the 00Z FV3 just shows a trough passing to the south from the Tuesday into Thursday and then builds a big ridge again... much like we have now.

 

What if that happens?     Then your statement is wrong.   

[Jesse]

Looking better again. Hoping the Euro is kind to us.

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is definitely more troughy next week... rain looks pretty sparse though.

 

There is a little mountain snow as well... and more to the south.

 

Total snow over the next 10 days...

 

[Cloud]

So it’s showing 61F for me at midnight. A good 8-10 degrees warmer than a lot of places. That East wind is insane.

[Cloud]

ECMWF is definitely more troughy next week... rain looks pretty sparse though.

 

There is a little mountain snow as well... and more to the south.

 

Total snow over the next 10 days...

 

I think it’s time to retire the snow maps!

[Cloud]

SEA is one of the warmer spot at midnight is still 63F with16-17mph E wind gusting 28-30mph.

 

For comparison, OLM is 42F and calm.

 

Lol.

[Phil]

[Phil]

SEA is one of the warmer spots at midnight is still 63F with16-17mph E wind gusting 28-30mph.

 

For comparison, OLM is 42F and calm.

 

Lol.

Shocker.

[ShawniganLake]

Shocker.

Not really UHI related, though. There’s an east wind and SEA sits up on a hill.

 

It’s in the 30s here but a few hundred feet up the hill it’s 56.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The wind kept up well past midnight. It was still 52 up here at midnight with offshore flow, very rare here. It has dropped off now and it is down to 42. 

[TT-SEA]

59 at SEA this morning... and 30 at OLM.    

 

And it has nothing to do with UHI.  

 

Its 62 in Enumclaw... nowhere near the city.    And 59 in Maple Valley.     Its all about east wind exposure.