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May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

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#1
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 April 2020 - 11:30 AM

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A little early but I'm trying to stay positive. Let's get some nice spring variety this May!!!


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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#2
GeorgeWx

Posted 30 April 2020 - 08:04 PM

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A little early but I'm trying to stay positive. Let's get some nice spring variety this May!!!


Cool name dude, what’s the story behind it?
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#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 April 2020 - 09:21 PM

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Cool name dude, what’s the story behind it?

 

Always been a fan of Tiger. His personal issues in the late 2000s still make me laugh and yet I genuinely feel bad for the guy for going through it. Him winning the Masters last year was one of my favorite sports moments ever.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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#4
Tyler Mode

Posted 01 May 2020 - 04:24 AM

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Starting off May with a frosty 36 degrees!


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#5
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 May 2020 - 05:34 AM

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Chilly 35 degree morning to start May. Was a gorgeous evening last night. Chilliest start t o May I have had up here was May 2013, with a low of 25 on the 1st.

 

94883342_702213377964_273141647946232627


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 06:59 AM

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Low of 37 here this morning. Nice chilly start to what should be a merciless blowtorch of a month.



#7
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 May 2020 - 06:59 AM

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Low of 44 here this morning. Cloudy and a bit breezy overnight

#8
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:00 AM

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39 here this morning...quite a bit of mid 30s this morning with a freeze in Olympia. Chilliest May morning here since 2013 as well.
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Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.23”(80+)days-3 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 July Rainfall-0.34”

#9
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:10 AM

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Lilacs in bloom on this first morning of May...

20200501-081315.jpg
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#10
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:47 AM

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Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#11
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:00 AM

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Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.


You live at the Troutdale airport?

#12
Jginmartini

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:03 AM

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Low of 38*

Car windows frozen up on this beautiful first day of May! 
May Day protest today? I’ve been ignoring the news :) 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#13
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:08 AM

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You live at the Troutdale airport?


I live nearby, closest location to my house.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#14
Jginmartini

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:09 AM

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Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning :)

 

Currently 49* 

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#15
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:19 AM

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Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning :)

Currently 49*


Fishing going to be really good once they open it back up for you guys.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#16
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:20 AM

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Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning :)
 
Currently 49*


Beautiful. Did you take this?

#17
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:27 AM

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Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

#18
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:36 AM

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I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.



#19
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:38 AM

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I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

 

 

And north of Portland too.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#20
El_Nina

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:38 AM

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Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.
Attached File  Screenshot_20200501-094046_Chrome.jpg   330.25KB   0 downloads
https://www.nwrfc.no...mmary.php?tab=1
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#21
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:39 AM

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This run also really beefs up the ridging. Gets Portland up toward 90 before day 10, with several days in a row above 80.



#22
Jginmartini

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:41 AM

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Fishing going to be really good once they open it back up for you guys.

I’m  ready now! Lol


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#23
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:43 AM

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Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.
attachicon.gifScreenshot_20200501-094046_Chrome.jpg
https://www.nwrfc.no...mmary.php?tab=1

 

 

Does not look good for Oregon... definitely wetter than normal up here though.     

 

As usual.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#24
Jginmartini

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:49 AM

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Beautiful. Did you take this?

Capture from a video I took.  The group was heading south like a pod of whales.  They would surface for a moment then go under for a moment.  Haven’t seen them gather like this before down here.  Anyhow enjoyable to watch this morning.  


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#25
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:51 AM

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Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.  

 

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

 

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#26
Jginmartini

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:51 AM

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I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

Sad! 


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#27
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2020 - 09:25 AM

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I’m ready now! Lol


I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#28
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:12 AM

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Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.


Next weekend is looking spectacular.
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Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#29
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:18 AM

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I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!


Not sure how to break this to you, but fish need water. These drought years have really been hurting the runs.

#30
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:24 AM

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12z Euro is wetter than the GFS through day 7. Good to see.

#31
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:52 AM

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Wow, the 12Z EURO is worlds apart from the GFS. Has a nice ULL spinning over us by next weekend with showers and highs in the upper 50s by Sunday.

 

I'm sure we're gonna still end up getting deep fried, but I will enjoy this run for now.

 

An inch and a half of rain for Portland by day 8-9. About three times more than what the GFS shows in that same period



#32
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:08 AM

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12Z ECMWF is about the same with the large scale features. That little ULL is a tenous feature of course and could easily disappear.
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#33
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:20 AM

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Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

Attached Files


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Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.23”(80+)days-3 (85+)days-0 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-81 July Rainfall-0.34”

#34
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:23 AM

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Clouding up here now, 59 after a low of 37.

Looks like some light showers are moving in, per the radar. Probably won’t amount to much though.

#35
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:26 AM

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Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see



#36
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:37 AM

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Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see


My money is on warm and dry.

#37
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:39 AM

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Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see


Cold and wet is likely.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#38
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:41 AM

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Somehow I missed this earlier, but it looks like April ended up being the 5th warmest on record for PDX, with an average temp of 54.5

1990 had been the previous 5th place, with the same average temp.

Not too bad for a cold spring.

#39
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:41 AM

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65 and sunny here now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#40
Phil

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:51 AM

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That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.
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#41
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:54 AM

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That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

 

Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here.   ;)

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#42
Phil

Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:57 AM

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Cold and wet is likely.


I’d say 95% chance of a warm/dry stretch before the eventual flip to cool/wet, and then flip back, rinse, repeat. Pattern instability persists for awhile with the late season breakdown of the vortex and descending -QBO both enhancing MJO activity. Which is important as it can offer increased subseasonal scale predictability so long as it holds.

Question is the duration. In case you’re wondering, I’m not trolling or pulling your leg here. This is an actual projection on my part. 🤓
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#43
Phil

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:05 PM

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Eventually I suspect a modest dry/coolish-continental background state takes over around/after the solstice..but not an overwhelming one. Moisture advection with respect to climo declines with time, and is much reduced over the West when compared to 2019. Hot/dry theme in the SW and South-Central US (and perhaps the Intermountain West as well) with a tight thermal gradient over West-Central Canada and the PNW region, possibly a -NAO/Aleutian Ridge tandem as well. But in a bizarre way, this might be a low pass signal that is only “weak” because it’s merely conveying the general MJO-driven instability, if it continues beyond the Asian monsoonal inception. I suppose the results could be interpreted a few different ways.
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#44
Jesse

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:14 PM

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Warm ups and cool downs. 😱

#45
Phil

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:19 PM

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Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here. ;)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-


It can be cool everywhere, in theory. See the summers of the 1960s. Wavelengths work differently during the warm season, and they’ll be shortening significantly over the next month (though at the moment they’re very winter like, possibly owing to the powerful vortex that is only now breaking down).

In the summer, a west-coast ridge often correlates to a plains/midwest trough and an east-coast ridge and/or SW flow/high humidity here. Our cool/dry summer patterns have historically featured a broad/flat ridge centered over NM/TX with a low over Newfoundland/Ontario. A trough over the Plains/Midwest just pumps in Gulf Moisture like a firehose.

A jackpot would be something like the summer of 1964, which was chilly everywhere and had low humidity in most places. I’d love to experience the weather from that decade again..-NAO/-PNA almost every winter, retracting Hadley Cells, a circulo-convective regime that likely produced a systemic radiative deficit/cooling, irrespective of current analyses, etc.
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#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:23 PM

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Phil is bored today.
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#47
Phil

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:26 PM

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Phil is bored today.


You have no idea.

Finished a major assignment and have had some time on my hands to mess around with wx/climate datasets in ways I haven’t in a few years. And now I have code written to filter/process it in ways that my brain could never do on its own. 🤯

I’m gonna be unbearable until covid-19 subsides.
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#48
Deweydog

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:29 PM

Deweydog

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Warm ups and cool downs. 😱


That’s some shitbox ATF thinking right there. Drop and give me 50.
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#49
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:32 PM

Timmy_Supercell

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Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

 

05/04/2017 was a nice little outbreak, well not little at all actually :P 

 

NWS Medford issued their 2nd ever Tornado Warning that day for a storm near Crater Lake. The first one they put out was wayy back in Aug 2005.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

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Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 4
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#50
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:39 PM

Timmy_Supercell

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Some mixed thoughts on tomorrow's action. Surface temp for the time of year can definitely be on the warmer side. Probably not gonna have the kinds of storms we had in May 2013 in this area. Still I should get my cameras charged up if there happens to be a little surprise.


  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 4
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)