January 2016 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Yea, it would be nice if there was a more in depth breakdown of things somewhere. 

 

At one time I had a link to a site that showed the actual daily MJO position and intensity, but I can't find it now.  It would probably be worth finding the site and dissecting the data someday. 

[MikeInEverett]

Big rain shadow right now...

http://i.imgur.com/1vBzuxs.png

[MossMan]

Big rain shadow right now...

http://i.imgur.com/1vBzuxs.png

Yep, dry here as well. Just breezy, love the rain shadow when it's just rain!

[TT-SEA]

Your posts get so tiresome.  You are putting way too much stock in just the last few years.  These things are cyclical.

 

This is an ironic comment from you. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yep, dry here as well. Just breezy, love the rain shadow when it's just rain!

It's been pouring here. Over 1 inch just since midnight.

[HighlandExperience]

It's been pouring here. Over 1 inch just since midnight.

Downright nasty outside. Passes got hammered overnight with well over a foot of snow. Snoqualmie closed this morning.

 

As a side note I am jealous of this storm hitting the mid Atlantic. Looks pretty good for Fred. Would be nice if we saw some real snowin the lowlands

[luvssnow_spokane]

Your posts get so tiresome. You are putting way too much stock in just the last few years. These things are cyclical.

Ironic... Your right ... we should only examine and compare the past that showed snow and cold in January. Noted.

[MossMan]

Most definitely not in the rain shadow anymore up here...rain and breezy. Glad I traversed the pass on Tuesday this week, would have been tough to make it over to Eastern WA today as the passes are shut down with no known opening time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is some definite potential on the 12z GFS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is some definite potential on the 12z GFS.

Yep lots of dangling carrots... Gets pretty cold by hour 312 with some epic cold up north. Carrots starting to sprout around hour 204.

 

Hour 312 (Carrot Cake w/ purple frosting -- but can we keep it and eat it too?)

 

 

[Timmy]

There is some definite potential on the 12z GFS.

definitely has an odd split look to it on the upper levels, which is to be expected.  doesn't mean we can't score though. maybe just you, tim and I?

[Timmy Supercell]

Don't you mean this spring?

 

Not sure what you mean by that. I was talking about 2014 and 2015. Last year I had a record average high temperature for January 2015, and 2nd warmest February the next month. March I believe was also a record as well for average high.

 

These last couple months look like they are a around normal overall. This month actually could end up below avg a bit because of the hard freeze this area had below 0 in the 1st week.

[ShawniganLake]

definitely has an odd split look to it on the upper levels, which is to be expected. doesn't mean we can't score though. maybe just you, tim and I?

Looks plenty cold enough for people up in the northern parts. Moisture? I won't hold my breath for hour 288 of the gfs. Models are trending a little more interesting then I would have expected given the circumstances though.

[Deweydog]

I wish we knew when the next model runs come out.

[Timmy]

guess what time it is? canadian hr 240!!!http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012112/gem_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

I wish we knew when the next model runs come out.

ditto

[MossMan]

I wish we knew when the next model runs come out.

We won't know until DJ posts his model countdown. Standby.

[stuffradio]

Urge to talk about 12Z rising...

[MossMan]

Yep lots of dangling carrots... Gets pretty cold by hour 312 with some epic cold up north. Carrots starting to sprout around hour 204.

 

Hour 312 (Carrot Cake w/ purple frosting -- but can we keep it and eat it too?)

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 9.21.33 AM.png

Where is DJ...Doesn't he know their are dark blues and various shades of purple on these maps?? Even Jim was getting feisty last night...things are looking up!

[Jesse]

Not sure what you mean by that. I was talking about 2014 and 2015. Last year I had a record average high temperature for January 2015, and 2nd warmest February the next month. March I believe was also a record as well for average high.

 

These last couple months look like they are a around normal overall. This month actually could end up below avg a bit because of the hard freeze this area had below 0 in the 1st week.

It was just a poke at the spring fever the forum is currently experiencing. Nothing more.

[BLI snowman]

Major snowstorm on Groundhog's Day. Calling it.

[TT-SEA]

Pleasant day out here... and south through Portland it appears.

 

Rain has lifted to the north and west.    Dry and mild here.

[MossMan]

Pleasant day out here... and south through Portland it appears.

 

Rain has lifted to the north and west.   Totally dry and mild here.

First mow of the year going to happen at your place?

[TT-SEA]

First mow of the year going to happen at your place?

 

 

No sir.   

[MossMan]

No sir.   

It was pleasant up here at 4:30am when I woke up. Dry, breezy, felt mild even though it was only 44 degrees. Ugly up here now however.

[Deweydog]

****it's still winter****

[luvssnow_spokane]

Major snowstorm on Groundhog's Day. Calling it.

You just jinxed it!!!! You bastard!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

****it's still winter****

I am getting really tired of these irrational statements

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a better pattern in 10 days.   Although I am pretty sure it will not be anything too memorable for the lowlands.   And remember... sun angle is starting to become a problem in February.  

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016012112!!chart.gif

[antipex]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a better pattern in 10 days.   Although I am pretty sure it will not be anything too memorable for the lowlands.   And remember... sun angle is starting to become a problem in February.  

 

Even right now it's getting increasingly easy for PDX to hit 50 degrees with longer daylight and slightly higher sun angle.

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a better pattern in 10 days.   Although I am pretty sure it will not be anything too memorable for the lowlands.   And remember... sun angle is starting to become a problem in February.  

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016012112!!chart.gif

Good thing this map is still for January.

[Timmy Supercell]

It was just a poke at the spring fever the forum is currently experiencing. Nothing more.

 

Silly me. I was too much into my facts and figures at the moment

[Jesse]

I don't know what everyone is expecting right now, or what everyone was expecting out of this winter. We are currently in a strong Nino. The fact that the mountains have done so well, the lowlands have been able to score a ton of rain, and the Portland area had a subfreezing high and snow event in early January already has this winter exceeding my expectations hugely.

 

Also, if sufficiently cold air is around, February can be a great month for us. That had been proven time and time again historically. 1956 says sun angle can be damned. Most major east coast cities have a higher wintertime sun angle than here, and February is colder than December on average. It's all about cold air availability.

[High Desert Mat]

definitely has an odd split look to it on the upper levels, which is to be expected. doesn't mean we can't score though. maybe just you, tim and I?

And Mat!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for a better pattern in 10 days.   Although I am pretty sure it will not be anything too memorable for the lowlands.   And remember... sun angle is starting to become a problem in February.  

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016012112!!chart.gif

Honestly, this is a good sign.. I am not really to worried about sun angle in early February. Kind of a mute point. We need the setup to deliver the goods and sun will really not be a factor. If this was showing a month from now, then you would be correct.

[MossMan]

I don't know what everyone is expecting right now, or what everyone was expecting out of this winter. We are currently in a strong Nino. The fact that the mountains have done so well, the lowlands have been able to score a ton of rain, and the Portland area had a subfreezing high and snow event in early January already has this winter exceeding my expectations hugely.

 

Also, if sufficiently cold air is around, February can be a great month for us. That had been proven time and time again historically. 1956 says sun angle can be damned. Most major east coast cities have a higher wintertime sun angle than here, and February is colder than December on average. It's all about cold air availability.

Very true. And almost technically I had a white Christmas Eve with not quite an inch of snowfall that morning. Lots of sub freezing lows, a few mornings in the teens, and way too many 34 degree rain/slop mix days. But yes not bad for a raging Nino. The mountains have done great as well. And Nino/Nina/Neutral...doesn't seem to matter anymore, seems like we are always in for a boring January these days. Have had many more lovely Februarys than Januarys over the last 25 or so years in terms of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Didn't PDX have a 23/19 on 2/7/14

[luminen]

46 degrees and pouring rain here. Well, at least it isn't 35 degrees... 

[TT-SEA]

Honestly, this is a good sign.. I am not really to worried about sun angle in early February. Kind of a mute point. We need the setup to deliver the goods and sun will really not be a factor. If this was showing a month from now, then you would be correct.

It was mostly a joke.

[stuffradio]

I don't know what everyone is expecting right now, or what everyone was expecting out of this winter. We are currently in a strong Nino. The fact that the mountains have done so well, the lowlands have been able to score a ton of rain, and the Portland area had a subfreezing high and snow event in early January already has this winter exceeding my expectations hugely.

 

Also, if sufficiently cold air is around, February can be a great month for us. That had been proven time and time again historically. 1956 says sun angle can be damned. Most major east coast cities have a higher wintertime sun angle than here, and February is colder than December on average. It's all about cold air availability.

That was a guarantee... it shouldn't surprise you.