January 2016 in the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

+7 departure at SEA today and GFS MOS shows the same for tomorrow. It allso shows highs in the 50s for the next week.

 

If that works out... SEA will end up with maybe 22 days above normal and 9 days below normal for January. And the monthly average well above normal.

 

I think this is the expected result with a Nino.

Noone ever said January would definitely end up below normal.

 

We all know what you are doing here, and its not to post a statistic based observation that you want us to think.

[High Desert Mat]

+7 departure at SEA today and GFS MOS shows the same for tomorrow. It allso shows highs in the 50s for the next week.

S#$t is gettin real.

 

If that works out... SEA will end up with maybe 22 days above normal and 9 days below normal for January. And the monthly average well above normal.

 

I think this is the expected result with a Nino.

[High Desert Mat]

S#$t is gettin real.

[TT-SEA]

Noone ever said January would definitely end up below normal.

 

We all know what you are doing here, and its not to post a statistic based observation that you want us to think.

 

 

Addressing the notion that this Nino is so different.   At least for January its pretty much on par with expectations.    History says cold periods happen with strong Ninos (Dec 72, Dec 82, Jan 98). 

 

The record December rain and snow was the most unusual aspect.   Although that 3-week period was perfectly timed to occur entirely in December.

[Jesse]

Good lord...

[TT-SEA]

Back up to 52 at SEA at 7 p.m.   

 

It was 60 at BLI last hour.   

[hotncold]

66 in Medford today

[Snowman5678]

Hit 43 degrees today in Salt Lake, felt downright warm. I had to take my coat off for a little while outside. A good amount of meltage going on too. Looks like a pretty stereotypical PNW day up there. Sounds like fun . 

[TT-SEA]

+11 at BLI today.   

[Deweydog]

+7 departure at SEA today and GFS MOS shows the same for tomorrow. It allso shows highs in the 50s for the next week.

 

If that works out... SEA will end up with maybe 22 days above normal and 9 days below normal for January. And the monthly average well above normal.

 

I think this is the expected result with a Nino.

Dead horses deserve it.

[stuffradio]

I'm just going to go throw some bulbs around so I can watch them sprout in live action!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z alert

[TT-SEA]

00z alert

 

1,500ft snow level possible in 10 days!  

[Deweydog]

Better would be a 10 foot snow level in 1,500 days!

[TT-SEA]

Better would be a 10 foot snow level in 1,500 days!

 

 

That would be March 1, 2020.

[Deweydog]

That would be March 1, 2020.

Something to keep a very close eye on.

[Brennan]

So how about that Nor'Easter... Mediocre upper level pattern. Massive snowstorm. Too bad we can't do that.

[TT-SEA]

So how about that Nor'Easter... Mediocre upper level pattern. Massive snowstorm. Too bad we can't do that.

 

 

Quite the north/south precip gradient.   I hope Fred still gets in on the heaviest snow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_072_precip_p48.gif

[Deweydog]

So how about that Nor'Easter... Mediocre upper level pattern. Massive snowstorm. Too bad we can't do that.

1-3-16!

[TT-SEA]

Phil is going to score huge with this storm.  

[HighlandExperience]

Quite the north/south precip gradient. I hope Fred still gets in on the heaviest snow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_072_precip_p48.gif

Yup whoever is on the north side of that is really screwed. I would feel bad for the weenies just a few miles north of where the heavy precip sets up because they are likely to get nothing while areas just a few miles south get blasted.

 

Just north of New York City there will be nothing. This is feast of famine.

 

Philly and DC should do fine. I'd be worried if I lived on the northern edges of NYC.

[BLI snowman]

Yup whoever is on the north side of that is really screwed. I would feel bad for the weenies just a few miles north of where the heavy precip sets up because they are likely to get nothing while areas just a few miles south get blasted.

 

Just north of New York City there will be nothing. This is feast of famine.

 

They had a record snowy winter last year in southern New England. Just nature's way of balancing things out. 

[HighlandExperience]

They had a record snowy winter last year in southern New England. Just nature's way of balancing things out.

That's true. Can't feel to bad for the weenies who get screwed by this.

[ShawniganLake]

Not a big surprise, but there is definitely growing model consensus on a building La Nina by the Fall.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/figure3.gif

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/figure4.gif

[stuffradio]

Can someone tell the frog outside my house that it's January? It's clearly not received the memo...

[Weather101]

Can someone tell the frog outside my house that it's January? It's clearly not received the memo...

The frog knows winter is over

[MossMan]

The gradient looks to be 50 miles north. Still expecting 12-18 without banding. Under my first ever blizzard warning I can remember.

One time I was under a blizzard warning, it was during the early morning hours of December 29th 1996.

[TT-SEA]

A low of 50 at SEA this morning.

 

And it was 59 at BLI at 5 a.m.

 

 

SEA is also above normal for rainfall for January now.    This will be the 4th consecutive month of well above normal rainfall... and 6 of the last 7 months have been wetter than normal. 

 

Another interesting stat... SEA is closing in on 30 inches of rain since the start of the 'water year' on 10/1.       Normal for the entire year is 38.29 inches.

 

Its been juuuust a little bit wet in this region of the country.  

[Deweydog]

Down to 51 at PDX.

[Weather101]

Down to 51 at PDX.

Amazing.

[Jesse]

Down to 51 at PDX.

We're missing out on so much potentially Jim upsetting warmth!

[stuffradio]

I guess no one likes carrots since no one is mentioning them.

[Deweydog]

We're missing out on so much potentially Jim upsetting warmth!

I think Jim's fine.

 

He's busy back east trying to physically thwart that blizzard anyway.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I guess no one likes carrots since no one is mentioning them.

The only carrots are a little maritime cold and 1,500 snow levels. Carrot juice!  But some will say how much they like that sort of thing and how our winter is over performing for an el Nino, so it is all good...

 

Personally, I am so transfixed on the epicness happing on the east coast it is really revealing how sucky our winters really are around here. Even getting a few inches of snow the last few years is a miracle.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is better for Fred.   Enjoy!

 

Its quite cool in the mid and long range.   And also drier than this past week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First week of February is looking below normal at this point.

[Jesse]

I think Jim's fine.

 

He's busy back east trying to physically thwart that blizzard anyway.

 

That in and of itself is VERY upsetting.

[Deweydog]

That in and of itself is VERY upsetting.

He's a very lovable mascot.

 

No one likes an angry mascot, except of course the Fighting Irish.

[Jesse]

Not PNW related, except for myself being from there, but Im giddy and borderline manic, so who cares.

 

I dont think I have ever been this excited for any weather event in my life.

 

I bet my Grandpa in Hellertown isn't too happy right now.

 

I talked to him on my birthday a couple weeks ago and he was telling me how blissfully snow free the winter has been there so far.

[HighlandExperience]

Not PNW related, except for myself being from there, but Im giddy and borderline manic, so who cares.

 

I dont think I have ever been this excited for any weather event in my life.

Imagine if Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver BC were on the verge of a storm this big. This forum would be hoppin.

 

One can dream!