January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Neither matter, kiddo.

 

Boring.

 

I'm taking notes.

[Deweydog]

I'm taking notes.

Should have started a long time ago.

[Jesse]

Should have started a long time ago.

 

How much weight does the fact that it might REALLY bother Jim hold?

[epiceast]

Might be an impressive snowfall here tonight. Up to 4" modeled but NWS says little accumulation. Temps dropped as much as 5 degrees in last hour around here, now around 34-35 in most of the valley locations.

[Deweydog]

How much weight does the fact that it might REALLY bother Jim hold?

Is this a physics question?

[Jesse]

Good agreement for a cool start to February on the 00Z ensembles.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hard to hate the 00z ECMWF 500mb pattern setting up after day 9. BC slider moving down the backside of the ridge causing it to retrograde near 145 W. The flow would then bend around to the north, and possibly northeast drawing in progressively colder air from BC/AB. It's unclear how progressive this would be or if the ridge would simply slide east before deeper north-northeast flow aloft can become established, but usually we get quite chilly in this pattern. We should score at least a strong cold pool I would assume. We haven't seen this on the models in over a month, or longer?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

 

500mb Height anomaly not too bad either. These are steps in the right direction IF we can build a trend for this with future runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012000/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to hate the 00z ECMWF 500mb pattern setting up after day 9. BC slider moving down the backside of the ridge causing it to retrograde near 145 W. The flow would then bend around to the north, and possibly northeast drawing in progressively colder air from BC/AB. It's unclear how progressive this would be or if the ridge would simply slide east before deeper north-northeast flow aloft can become established, but usually we get quite chilly in this pattern. We should score at least a strong cold pool I would assume. We haven't seen this on the models in over a month, or longer?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

 

500mb Height anomaly not too bad either. These are steps in the right direction IF we can build a trend for this with future runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012000/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

Nice post DJ!

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice post DJ!

Thanks. I'm good for about 2-3 of these a year, so maybe sometime in June I'll provide something productive, noteworthy, and worthwhile.  Oh, 00z EC ENS in pretty decent agreement much to my surprise. Sometimes those BC sliders can really dig that arctic trough nicely southward. Too bad this was only one run. You do have to start somewhere, and every arctic blast starts with one model agreeing on a solution exactly like this, then other model camps move towards that and a trend emerges. Maybe this will be another one of those times, maybe not.

[Gradient Keeper]

With some renewed hopes of one last shot at Winter(maybe and probably) It's time to dust off the Model Countdown. Let's hope 12z runs are fairly kind to us.

 

[Model Countdown] 1/20/16
Next up.................
12z GFS in 8 minutes
12z GEM in 1 hour 22 minutes
12z ECMWF in 2 hours 30 minutes

[Tyler Mode]

One year ago it was a virtually snowless hike up to the top of Silver Star.

This year, the summit is no doubt under several feet of snow!

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Silver-Star-12115/i-3hSLJ6p

[Gradient Keeper]

One year ago it was a virtually snowless hike up to the top of Silver Star.

 

This year, the summit is no doubt under several feet of snow!

 

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Silver-Star-12115/i-3hSLJ6p

Outstanding collection of pictures. I would love to see a side/by/side comparison from then to now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning! 

 

[stuffradio]

Beautiful morning! 

 

There's a flag in the way!

[Jesse]

Aside from the spike of warmth tomorrow and early next week the models are looking fairly cool. 

[Timmy]

There's a flag in the way!

Yeah and thank god it doesn't have a leaf on it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That flag got me thinking about making America great again...

 

 

The long range GFS is coolish, but nothing more than 2000' snow levels. I see Timberline is up to a 115" base and Hoodoo even has 70" now!

[Timmy]

That flag got me thinking about making America great again...

 

 

The long range GFS is coolish, but nothing more than 2000' snow levels. I see Timberline is up to a 115" base and Hoodoo even has 70" now!

Let's get those snow levels down just a hair!

[Deweydog]

That flag got me thinking about making America great again...

 

 

The long range GFS is coolish, but nothing more than 2000' snow levels. I see Timberline is up to a 115" base and Hoodoo even has 70" now!

Make America and, subsequently and more importantly, make the GFS great again!

[Jesse]

Make America and, subsequently and more importantly, make the GFS great again!

Let's just scrap the bleeding heart GFS and let the private sector take over.

[Deweydog]

Let's just scrap the bleeding heart GFS and let the private sector take over.

Nah, increase the already bloated GFS to 24 days!

[stuffradio]

Yeah and thank god it doesn't have a leaf on it.

If it did, it might have reminded you how the British and natives repelled those pesky 'muricans away from trying to annex us. That battle is where your national anthem came from, how the flag was still standing even after the British were attacking. You don't make any mention in the anthem how the Americans were the aggressors though.

[Deweydog]

If it did, it might have reminded you how the British and natives repelled those pesky 'muricans away from trying to annex us. That battle is where your national anthem came from, how the flag was still standing even after the British were attacking. You don't make any mention in the anthem how the Americans were the aggressors though.

Doesn't have the same ring to it.

[stuffradio]

Doesn't have the same ring to it.

Sad but true.

[Deweydog]

Sad but true.

I suppose a verse about a 22 year Stanley Cup drought north of the border in Oh Canada wouldn't be very catchy either.

[Jesse]

Nah, increase the already bloated GFS to 24 days!

Shortening it to 10 or even 12 days and putting the money saved into improving it would be the best option.

[stuffradio]

I suppose a verse about a 22 year Stanley Cup drought north of the border in Oh Canada wouldn't be very catchy either.

"O Canada, No cup in 22 years" Nope, that's catchy.

[Deweydog]

Shortening it to 10 or even 12 days and putting the money saved into improving it would be the best option.

Good luck getting that through congress, Polly Anna. Constitiuents love their wishcasting...

[TT-SEA]

Canada won 20 out of 30 Stanley Cups from 1964-1993.

 

And not a single one since 1993.   

 

Although most of the American teams are made up of Canadian players.  

[Jesse]

Good luck getting that through congress, Polly Anna. Constitiuents love their wishcasting...

Since when is offering ideas about a pragmatic solution to something Polly Anna? Didn't say it was definitely going to happen.

[Jesse]

If it did, it might have reminded you how the British and natives repelled those pesky 'muricans away from trying to annex us. That battle is where your national anthem came from, how the flag was still standing even after the British were attacking. You don't make any mention in the anthem how the Americans were the aggressors though.

The war of 1812 was partially about an attempt to annex what became Canada? I wasn't aware of that aspect.

[stuffradio]

The war of 1812 was partially about an attempt to annex what became Canada? I wasn't aware of that aspect.

Yes. The Americans thought we would gladly become a part of the US, but we resisted. Soon after, we also burnt down what now is known as the White House.

[Deweydog]

Since when is offering ideas about a pragmatic solution to something Polly Anna? Didn't say it was definitely going to happen.

In our weenie culture you can only give, you can't take away and assume personal responsibility will kick in. That much is etched in stone.

 

24 days with resolution change pushed to 17!

[Jesse]

Yes. The Americans thought we would gladly become a part of the US, but we resisted. Soon after, we also burnt down what now is known as the White House.

I knew about the White House burning, but I always thought that was more the British. Although I suppose Britain and Canada were essentially the same entity back then.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS shows mid 50s the next couple days at SEA... and then highs in the low 50s with lows in the 40s for the remainder of the next week. January will end up solidly above normal. No surprise there.

[MossMan]

GFS MOS shows mid 50s the next couple days at SEA... and then highs in the low 50s with lows in the 40s for the remainder of the next week. January will end up solidly above normal. No surprise there.

My grass is going to start growing.

[seattleweatherguy]

GFS MOS shows mid 50s the next couple days at SEA... and then highs in the low 50s with lows in the 40s for the remainder of the next week. January will end up solidly above normal. No surprise there.

Wow its going to be warm, but muggy too? That other model was painting near 60s last night if i recall right.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... feels like and starting to look like spring to me.

[antipex]

Nice day... feels like and starting to look like spring to me.

 

In our climate it's actually closer to spring than winter now. There will be cherry blossoms in a few weeks!

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS MOS shows mid 50s the next couple days at SEA... and then highs in the low 50s with lows in the 40s for the remainder of the next week. January will end up solidly above normal. No surprise there.

Sounds epically normal for us. I am loving the yearly consistency this time of year. At least we can count on that in recent years.