January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

My 2 cents and since there's not much else to discuss:

 

Tend to agree with Jesse on this one - when called out for this, luvssnow points the couple posts he makes every now and again that could be considered 'positive' but chooses to ignore the other 95% of his posts that are 'negative' or along the lines of 'models might show potential but it won't happen.... our climate can't deliver.... carrots... dangling carrots... carrots... keep chasing carrots... carrots...'

 

Although with that being said, similiar to Tim, no matter how many times you may point it out, it's a lost cause because they choose not to see what everyone else sees. Plus, he usually finishes his 'negative' posts with "But we will see!" or "Not saying it WONT happen" to try and negate the fact he just said a couple sentences ago that it's not going to happen. Always found that odd.

 

Very well said.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My 2 cents and since there's not much else to discuss:

 

Tend to agree with Jesse on this one - when called out for this, luvssnow points the couple posts he makes every now and again that could be considered 'positive' but chooses to ignore the other 95% of his posts that are 'negative' or along the lines of 'models might show potential but it won't happen.... our climate can't deliver.... carrots... dangling carrots... carrots... keep chasing carrots... carrots...'

 

Although with that being said, similiar to Tim, no matter how many times you may point it out, it's a lost cause because they choose not to see what everyone else sees. Plus, he usually finishes his 'negative' posts with "But we will see!" or "Not saying it WONT happen" to try and negate the fact he just said a couple sentences ago that it's not going to happen. Always found that odd.

Thanks hawks twelve ... Noted and I will call it how I see it. And yes there are models showing signs of potential. Leave it at that.

 

EDIT: the use of carrots is just having fun and being silly no matter how you want to see that. For example here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1136-january-2016-in-the-pnw/?p=111721

 

That was not a negative post but a hopeful one BTW. thanks..

[catnip]

what plant does a poutin grow on?

 

You can only grow them in Quebec.

[Jesse]

Thanks hawks twelve ... Noted and I will call it how I see it. And yes there is models showing signs of potential. Leave it at that.

 

EDIT: the use of carrots is just having fun and being silly no matter how you want to see that. For example here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1136-january-2016-in-the-pnw/?p=111721

 

That was not a negative post but a hopeful one BTW. thanks..

 

FWIW, the carrot thing stopped being funny maybe 50 posts ago.

[luvssnow_spokane]

FWIW, the carrot thing stopped being funny maybe 50 posts ago.

I'm slow and easily amused. Oh, look a rabbit!!.....  ........

[HighlandExperience]

Yes... colder rain! Back to the 60s for Fred though.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016012212!!chart.gif

That makes me happy. After all that snow it's only right

[BLI snowman]

Clearly there will be a longwave trough and another crack at winter in the next two weeks. It's far out but most operational GFS runs this week have consistently shown Fraser River outflow in the 2/1 to 2/3 timeframe. Groundhog's Day snowstorm threat lives on.

[Jesse]

Pretty good agreement among the 12z Euro ensembles on a sharp offshore ridge developing around the end of the month.

[Jesse]

Could be a surprise 60 in the works for PDX today.

 

Was hoping we could make it at least one winter month without hitting 60.

[TT-SEA]

Point forecast for Phil is almost comical...

 

1-2 inches this afternoon.

 

10-16 inches tonight.

 

9-13 inches tomorrow.

 

1-3 inches tomorrow night.

 

 

34 inches on the high side!   Its like a forecast for Mt Rainier in a big storm.  

[Deweydog]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

Dumping snow in DC... where is Phil?    

[Timmy]

Clearly there will be a longwave trough and another crack at winter in the next two weeks. It's far out but most operational GFS runs this week have consistently shown Fraser River outflow in the 2/1 to 2/3 timeframe. Groundhog's Day snowstorm threat lives on.

Feb 2014 redux???

[ShawniganLake]

Feb 2014 redux???

Looks a bit similar to the 22-24th period of 2014, at this point. 

[Phil]

Dumping snow in DC... where is Phil?

I'm keeping my observations in the eastern forum.

 

I think the wording in our blizzard warning is more awe-inspiring than the forecasted snow totals. I love El Niño winters.

[TT-SEA]

I'm keeping my observations in the eastern forum.

 

I think the wording in our blizzard warning is more awe-inspiring than the forecasted snow totals. I love El Niño winters.

 

 

Well... you have had nothing so far and probably nothing more after this storm.   So it might be a 2-day winter for you.   An awesome 2 days for sure... but most of the winter has been mild and boring there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Clearly there will be a longwave trough and another crack at winter in the next two weeks. It's far out but most operational GFS runs this week have consistently shown Fraser River outflow in the 2/1 to 2/3 timeframe. Groundhog's Day snowstorm threat lives on.

Yep

 

Pretty good agreement among the 12z Euro ensembles on a sharp offshore ridge developing around the end of the month.

Yeah, and nice improvement today. Call me crazy, but it's somewhat starting to mirror 2014 in terms of potential, not what is shown YET. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep

 

Yeah, and nice improvement today. Call me crazy, but it's somewhat starting to mirror 2014 in terms of potential, not what is shown YET.

No. Maybe similar to Dec 23/24

[BLI snowman]

Yep

 

Yeah, and nice improvement today. Call me crazy, but it's somewhat starting to mirror 2014 in terms of potential, not what is shown YET. 

 

18z was pretty terrible. I'm jumping ship. 

[BLI snowman]

No. Maybe similar to Dec 23/24

 

Yeah, we're not going to see blocking like we saw in early February 2014. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, we're not going to see blocking like we saw in early February 2014.

That was a brutally cold airmass as well. Wasn't there -20 850s into NE Washington?

 

How about the late February 2014 Fraser river trickle, I am trying to remember how that one unfolded?

[BLI snowman]

That was a brutally cold airmass as well. Wasn't there -20 850s into NE Washington?

 

How about the late February 2014 Fraser river trickle, I am trying to remember how that one unfolded?

 

That was another big arctic airmass that largely went east of the Rockies. We were on the far southwestern peripheries of it and were able to get some cold offshore flow. 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0223.php

[Phil]

Well... you have had nothing so far and probably nothing more after this storm. So it might be a 2-day winter for you. An awesome 2 days for sure... but most of the winter has been mild and boring there.

That's like every winter here, lol.

 

We'll probably score again in February. Another round of heavy blocking upcoming next month.

[GobBluth]

18z was pretty terrible. I'm jumping ship. 

blowtorch ridge would be worse. I'll take a strong undercutting jet slamming the storms focused on southern oregon.

[Deweydog]

The week after next will be cooler than next week.

[Jesse]

The week after next will be cooler than next week.

 

Next week is looking pretty toasty.

 

Could see PDX getting close to 60 again a few days there. Although probably not when it's as sunny as it was today.

[Gradient Keeper]

Warm / Cold(Snow?) / Warmer

[Deweydog]

Next week is looking pretty toasty.

 

Could see PDX getting close to 60 again a few days there. Although probably not when it's as sunny as it was today.

Today was a perfect storm of pleasantness.

[TT-SEA]

Today was a perfect storm of pleasantness.

 

 

Tragic.   Because this is a rare cold January during a Nino.    SEA might only end up +2 or +3.  

[Deweydog]

Tragic. Because this is a rare cold January during a Nino. SEA might only end up +2 or +3.

I heard sketchy reports and rumblings on some OCD Yuppie forums they may indeed finish this month warmer than average.

[BLI snowman]

Tragic.   Because this is a rare cold January during a Nino.    SEA might only end up +2 or +3.  

 

No one other than you has posted about finishing with a "cold" month for weeks now. Give it a rest.

[TT-SEA]

The models simply did a horrible job of handling the disturbance currently effecting the NW.  No way did I see two clear nights with temps dropping below freezing on both in the cards.

 

Also...with the pattern becoming Ninaish again.  I didn't say it was happening yet, but with an Indain Ocean MJO eventually making its way to the Maritime Continent, it is not going to yield a typical Nino pattern later in the month.  The ECMWF ensemble and parallel ECMWF have been advertising rising heights over the NE Pacific in the near furture.  Not Ninoish.

 

At any rate this will be nowhere near the type of January you normally see with a major El Nino.  More lowland freezing low temps and more snow in the mountains than typical.  The numbers for many major cities so far this month are running well below normal.  I know it drives Tim nuts so he has to point out that SEA may average above normal for the month.  One of the warmest stations in relation to normal.

 

 

Justin... this was just a week ago.  

[GHweatherChris]

Justin... this was just a week ago.

Jim never said this month would end up below normal anywhere.

 

He was just talking about that current time frame.

 

Nice try.

[TT-SEA]

Jim never said this month would end up below normal anywhere.

 

He was just talking about that current time frame.

 

Nice try.

 

 

OK.   

[TT-SEA]

Need some updates here from Fred.    Should be getting pretty interesting at his house by now.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Feb 2014 redux???

You never know. We just need the offshore block to hold a bit longer than models currently show and the deeper northeast flow/arctic air would drop right over us. Models though fairly consistent in undercutting the ridge too soon, but still might be cold enough for snow if there is any moisture with 850s -5c or colder and offshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

You never know. We just need the offshore block to hold a bit longer than models currently show and the deeper northeast flow/arctic air would drop right over us. Models though fairly consistent in undercutting the ridge too soon, but still might be cold enough for snow if there is any moisture with 850s -5c or colder and offshore flow.

 

 

Are you tracking the NE storm?   

[BLI snowman]

Justin... this was just a week ago.  

 

I bet there have been a lot of tense, sleepless nights at the TT household since this was posted.

[TT-SEA]

 

I bet there have been a lot of tense, sleepless nights at the TT household since this was posted.

 

 

No doubt.  

[MossMan]

Need some updates here from Fred. Should be getting pretty interesting at his house by now.

I'm sure he is busy frolicking in it.