Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/03/21 in all areas

  1. Euro is now picking up the behemoth of a storm that GFS has been showing in clown range. It's easy to shrug that off, but the seasons have to change at SOME point. This might just be the thing to do it. Looks good on ensembles, too.
    6 points
  2. 4 points
  3. @SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...
    4 points
  4. Been longing for these days. 60, off/on light rain.
    4 points
  5. Last year was top tier over here. Snow accumulating in Spokane during the day on October 23rd qualifies as top tier in my book.
    4 points
  6. Well... that settles it once and for all.
    4 points
  7. Any type of negative anomaly is exciting for jim. That’s just his thing nothing wrong with that. There are some fairly chilly by October standards fronts shown on the euro and gfs through day 10.
    4 points
  8. Rainfall this weekend wasn't a total bust. I picked up .90 over the last 2 days. Not as much as was needed but better than nothing. Temps this week look to be in the mid 70 possibly hitting the low 80s by next weekend.
    4 points
  9. Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!
    3 points
  10. Never too cold. Most people bring their own personal fluffer to address those issues.
    3 points
  11. Every single day on the 18z runs below average. All 16 of them. Some by -7 to -10 departures. Niña!
    3 points
  12. October perfection! Lows around 40 with highs in the mid 60s. 10 degrees cooler would be even more perfect-er. Hah
    3 points
  13. So true... happens to all of us. Confirmation bias is a b*tch.
    3 points
  14. This looks pretty nice. More rain in Northern California.
    3 points
  15. FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers. He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.
    3 points
  16. 94-95 actually had a couple nice lowland snow events in the Portland area. 2017-18 was okay, January really sucked. I’d be good with 2006-07 but something like 2016-17 would be awesome.
    3 points
  17. Extended GFS showing storm after storm in the Plains. Even has some flakes around. Long ways out, will be interesting to watch the trends.
    3 points
  18. The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.
    3 points
  19. Maybe this will assuage those fears. 2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region. On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).
    3 points
  20. This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal). Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter). What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)? If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.
    3 points
  21. My son was there with his GF and her dad. Just got home and his ears are still ringing.
    3 points
  22. Mariners get 90 wins for the first time since 2003 analogs anyone?
    3 points
  23. LOL, I guess I should have specified, he is in the drumline. He is about 6' to 6'1" or so and about 130# soaking wet, he would get crushed if he tried to play football. That said, lugging tenor drums and cymbals around for 4 years will have covered $8,000 of his college expenses, so can't knock that.
    2 points
  24. Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel.
    2 points
  25. We were thinking of hitting up wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!
    2 points
  26. That is a long time. Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter. If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.
    2 points
  27. 2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. My reaction every time I scroll through GFS slides so far this fall (saucy language):
    2 points
  30. Only a January 1950 redux would satisfy all on this forum. Lol
    2 points
  31. Lots of weiner flashing going on today, do some of you have something to admit?
    2 points
  32. 1950-51 though. Not quite as flabbergastingly awesome but still a dated and unlikely parallel to today.
    2 points
  33. And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.
    2 points
  34. Gulf Low’s are always fun to track, esp with a massive banana HP to the N. Liking the start of this new pattern and the wave train of cutters setting up later next week into mid month.
    2 points
  35. This place never ceases to entertain me. Especially going into fall-winter. The real show begins at the end of February, particularly when winter didn't deliver the goods. Thank God March holds the wildcard
    2 points
  36. REFUSE TO LOSE. I believe!! GAME 162 LETS GOOOOOOO
    2 points
  37. Yeah GFS consistently forecasted 110+ for Lincoln and I think I saw as high as 117-118. Summer max was 103.
    2 points
  38. The GFS ensemble looks remarkably similar to the operational at day 8. It shows the trough hanging in well beyond that. Also hints at the onshore flow being cut off with very low 850s.
    1 point
  39. I think this run is going to show freezing low temps for some places.
    1 point
  40. Ugly wall to wall sunshine day here. I’m very ready for consistently gloomy and wet weather. No sign that’s coming anytime soon.
    1 point
  41. Literally picked up exactly where they left off. Lots of soul searching this week by the Seahawks. They really made improvements.
    1 point
  42. Currently on pace to lose 18-0. Real science. Real math.
    1 point
  43. I just put together a short list of years that fit the following criteria. 1. One of the 25 coldest Octobers on record back to 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands. 2. Cold ENSO Quite an amazing list and all of these winters delivered. 1908 - Wicked cold January and all around cold winter. 1916 - Persistently cold winter with snow 1949 - Well...you know... 1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March 1956 - Persistently cold winter with a cold / snowy January 1970 - Chilly winter with a good amount of lowland snow. Very major winter in north WA interior. 1971 - Recurrent cold / snowy weather with a major snowstorm and Arctic blast in late January in much of Western WA. 1984 - Persistent cold with snow in December and February. The key is these were all solidly cold Octobers with cold ENSO. It remains to be seen how cold this month will be, but it certainly has a shot at being top 10%.
    1 point
  44. The first half to 2/3 of October is often pretty dry. This year it at least will be cool with a few fronts and no summer like weather on the horizon. And this is after we just had a very wet pattern with a top 10 wet September for the airport era.
    1 point
  45. Clown range so I doubt it happens, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. See 2018 and 2019 for further information.
    1 point
This leaderboard is set to Vancouver/GMT-08:00
×
×
  • Create New...