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Just 10 days away!

Euro is now picking up the behemoth of a storm that GFS has been showing in clown range. It's easy to shrug that off, but the seasons have to change at SOME point. This might just be the thing to do it. Looks good on ensembles, too.

That's legit

You mean fluffer, right?

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

Been longing for these days. 60, off/on light rain.

Last year was top tier over here. Snow accumulating in Spokane during the day on October 23rd qualifies as top tier in my book.

Well... that settles it once and for all.

Any type of negative anomaly is exciting for jim. That’s just his thing nothing wrong with that. There are some fairly chilly by October standards fronts shown on the euro and gfs through day 10.

Rainfall this weekend wasn't a total bust. I picked up .90 over the last 2 days. Not as much as was needed but better than nothing. Temps this week look to be in the mid 70 possibly hitting the low 80s by next weekend.

Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!

Never too cold. Most people bring their own personal fluffer to address those issues.

Every single day on the 18z runs below average. All 16 of them. Some by -7 to -10 departures. Niña!

October perfection! Lows around 40 with highs in the mid 60s. 10 degrees cooler would be even more perfect-er. Hah

So true... happens to all of us. Confirmation bias is a b*tch.

This looks pretty nice. More rain in Northern California.

FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers. He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

94-95 actually had a couple nice lowland snow events in the Portland area. 2017-18 was okay, January really sucked. I’d be good with 2006-07 but something like 2016-17 would be awesome.

Extended GFS showing storm after storm in the Plains. Even has some flakes around. Long ways out, will be interesting to watch the trends.

The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

Maybe this will assuage those fears. 2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region. On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal). Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter). What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)? If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.

LOL, I guess I should have specified, he is in the drumline. He is about 6' to 6'1" or so and about 130# soaking wet, he would get crushed if he tried to play football. That said, lugging tenor drums and cymbals around for 4 years will have covered $8,000 of his college expenses, so can't knock that.

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel.

We were thinking of hitting up wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

That is a long time. Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter. If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.

Never too cold for that!!

Is that New California?

Only a January 1950 redux would satisfy all on this forum. Lol

1950-51 though. Not quite as flabbergastingly awesome but still a dated and unlikely parallel to today.

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

Gulf Low’s are always fun to track, esp with a massive banana HP to the N. Liking the start of this new pattern and the wave train of cutters setting up later next week into mid month.

This place never ceases to entertain me. Especially going into fall-winter. The real show begins at the end of February, particularly when winter didn't deliver the goods. Thank God March holds the wildcard

Mariners get 90 wins for the first time since 2003 analogs anyone?

Yeah GFS consistently forecasted 110+ for Lincoln and I think I saw as high as 117-118. Summer max was 103.

TWL has some special kind of bad luck it seems. Hell, even here in this subtropical swamp box I can’t remember a single winter without at least a couple subfreezing highs. Even super warm winters like 2016/17 had several.

Not a bad frame to be stuck on! lol

We’re just figuring out that La Niña is good with extra steps lol

Only 56/53 spread today here still…haven’t had any sun yet.

We will see what October brings going forward, but it’s very nice sitting on the back deck right now enjoying this breezy cool day.

Drizzling and 52 currently.

Wow. Those are some great years.

In other news, across the "pond" in France this is one heckova water spout!

I just put together a short list of years that fit the following criteria. 1. One of the 25 coldest Octobers on record back to 1895 for the Puget Sound Lowlands. 2. Cold ENSO Quite an amazing list and all of these winters delivered. 1908 - Wicked cold January and all around cold winter. 1916 - Persistently cold winter with snow 1949 - Well...you know... 1950 - Respectably cold January and amazing cold / snowy March 1956 - Persistently cold winter with a cold / snowy January 1970 - Chilly winter with a good amount of lowland snow. Very major winter in north WA interior. 1971 - Recurrent cold / snowy weather with a major snowstorm and Arctic blast in late January in much of Western WA. 1984 - Persistent cold with snow in December and February. The key is these were all solidly cold Octobers with cold ENSO. It remains to be seen how cold this month will be, but it certainly has a shot at being top 10%.

18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again.

The first half to 2/3 of October is often pretty dry. This year it at least will be cool with a few fronts and no summer like weather on the horizon. And this is after we just had a very wet pattern with a top 10 wet September for the airport era.

I'm tired of turning the AC on in October. Hopefully last week or so. By the time the afternoon hits, it's too warm in the house so I flick it back on for an hour. 78 is too warm for me inside.

NOAA has my area in the above avg precip area for October, but models are bone dry through mid month.