April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system

[hawkstwelve]

Definite NW shift to the storm on most of the latest runs and ensembles. Much less snow for SF/NE/IA. But hopefully we can score some good thunderstorms and some solid precip out of it at least.

[Tom]

Geeze, the 0z Euro is about as bad as it could get for @CentralNebWeather and OMA/LNK peeps...literally, a miss for those areas through THU...

 

On the flip side of things, as a wx enthusiast, this system is going to be a Beast of a Blizzard tracking across the Upper MW/GL's for days on end as a blocked up pattern takes hold through Easter Weekend...parts of the N Rockies into the Black Hills was my original target area, but the shift NW is taking place as this system just bombs out somewhere over N MN.

 

The 2nd cutter is showing up on the 0z EPS and it has a wintry component to it....#EasterSnowBunny

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Enhanced risk for Tuesday

[Iceresistance]

@AndieSlight risk with HATCHED area is over DFW & Texarkana for Next Monday

[Clinton]

SPC D4 still a question if storms will be able to fire in the KC area.

[Clinton]

Day 5

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on
   Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS.
   Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should
   occur.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest...
   Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement
   regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the
   western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is
   forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the
   day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
   Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the
   surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the
   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep
   mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the
   warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to
   strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon.

   As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper
   trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will
   likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX.
   Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through
   the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust
   severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with
   initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern
   as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential
   may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS
   Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a
   strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included
   where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday
   afternoon/evening.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest and Southeast...
   Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday
   morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a
   strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper
   trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture
   should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley
   into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model
   guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day
   5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous
   severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and
   to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong
   deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support
   updraft organization

[hawkstwelve]

Starting to look like I will be too far SE for snow and too far NW for thunderstorms. Drats!

There seems to be a consistent theme for the past few storms in this area - close but no cigar. 

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Starting to look like I will be too far SE for snow and too far NW for thunderstorms. Drats!

There seems to be a consistent theme for the past few storms in this area - close but no cigar. 

You're literally getting dry slotted, it gets really old really quickly after repeated Dry Slotting.

[Andie]

47 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@AndieSlight risk with HATCHED area is over DFW & Texarkana for Next Monday

Well, I’m glad we’re dodging the main event.  We’ll take the rain to avoid fire threats and drought however.  

[mlgamer]

Sitting on the western edge of the D4 (Tue) severe enhanced area. Precip probabilities are 20% Tuesday and 40% Tuesday night in MBY so nothing certain here. Just keeping an eye on things for now.

[Iceresistance]

the 12z NAM has isolated development in Central Oklahoma Tomorrow afternoon, could be a sneaky event.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks like the Euro caved to the GFS (again)….

[CentralNebWeather]

25 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Looks like the Euro caved to the GFS (again)….

As has been the case all season. The models are an utter disaster for us. I would think more devastating fires are in our future. NWS Hastings disco was pretty pessimistic this morning about lack of rain and more wind. 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS still refuses to slow down the midweek front.  It has the front moving through first thing Wednesday morning, while other models are more toward evening.  That will greatly impact the high temp.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

You're literally getting dry slotted, it gets really old really quickly after repeated Dry Slotting.

Might become our new nickname, the dry slot state. I’ve watched it for going on 6 months now. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS show 2 storms next week. Both take about the same path with the Nebraska dry slot, but lots of wind. Frustrating and sad. 

[hawkstwelve]

Although there has been a slight move SSE with the system over the past couple of runs, don't know if it will be enough down the home stretch to make a difference.

So close yet so far...

[Iceresistance]

12z RGEM has CAPE over 4000 in Oklahoma, & storms do indeed blow up in Western Oklahoma, mostly along US-81

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk now in place for Missouri tomorrow, appears that the cap is weaker there.

[hawkstwelve]

Majority of NE gets nailed by the Easter storm on the 12z Euro. That's nice to see.

SE SD/NE Nebraska/IA get screwed by being in between the two storm tracks.

[gabel23]

Boy this is going to be quite the storm for North Dakota, as been the case all winter. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

NDZ002>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-100345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.WS.A.0003.220412T1200Z-220414T1200Z/
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Golden
Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Fessenden, Wilton,
Marmarth, Glenburn, Dunseith, Sherwood, Killdeer, Tappen,
Dickinson, Minot, Mcclusky, Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town,
Watford City, Columbus, Solen, Shell Valley, Hazen, New England,
Underwood, St. John, Bismarck, Portal, Lignite, Harvey, Beulah,
Rugby, Center, Bowman, Rolette, Selfridge, Drake, Towner, Velva,
Linton, Mohall, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Goodrich, Steele, Rolla, Mott,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, Turtle Lake, and
Bottineau
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 /131 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 20 inches possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Most of western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Slight risk now in place for Missouri tomorrow, appears that the cap is weaker there.

Just not alot of moisture available for mby with this storm. I think the Ohio Valley will be where the action is early next week.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Boy this is going to be quite the storm for North Dakota, as been the case all winter. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

NDZ002>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-100345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.WS.A.0003.220412T1200Z-220414T1200Z/
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Golden
Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Fessenden, Wilton,
Marmarth, Glenburn, Dunseith, Sherwood, Killdeer, Tappen,
Dickinson, Minot, Mcclusky, Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town,
Watford City, Columbus, Solen, Shell Valley, Hazen, New England,
Underwood, St. John, Bismarck, Portal, Lignite, Harvey, Beulah,
Rugby, Center, Bowman, Rolette, Selfridge, Drake, Towner, Velva,
Linton, Mohall, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Goodrich, Steele, Rolla, Mott,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, Turtle Lake, and
Bottineau
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 /131 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 20 inches possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Most of western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

 

What are the chances that The Weather Channel sends Reynolds Wolf or even Cantore to Dickinson, ND?  Like 1 in a million.

[OmahaSnowFan]

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

[Mr Marine Layer]

49 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

Sounds like fun. Don't get blown away.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

I don't know him very well, what does this usually mean? A potentially dangerous outbreak that even a strong cap would fail from keeping the storms from going?

 

EDIT: Apparently, he's not very trustworthy.

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I don't know him very well, what does this usually mean? A potentially dangerous outbreak that even a strong cap would fail from keeping the storms from going?

 

EDIT: Apparently, he's not very trustworthy.

There’s actually a fairly decent sized area with minimal cap. And a cap under 50 can still be broken with the right atmospheric conditions which is what he’s saying above. Plus a little cap keeps storms more isolated and discrete.

I have no idea what you’re referring to in your edit nor do I know him personally. I’m only referring to the storm chasing forum I’m been on with him and other chasers for 10+ years so I’ve seen how he forecasts setups and that is normally not one with the bias of everything is huge and going to be the biggest outbreak ever like a lot of other chasers do.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Grid’s been raised to 81 for a high on Tuesday

[Tom]

0z Euro flashing a Taste of Summer for the heartland on Tuesday...

 

All a while, a Blizzard will more than likely be taking aim for the Upper MW just hours later...a bit of a shift Etowards N MN with the heaviest snows... @Beltrami Island Go Big or Go Home say the 0z Euro??

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS/Canadien say ND is the epicenter...

 

 

 

Ya, looking deeper into the data, the 0z EPS certainly is shifting E with the heaviest snows in the last 24 hours...could be the Big Dog of the season for the Northwoods of MN...

 

 

[Iceresistance]

This is one of the largest Enhanced risks I've seen in a long time

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to trend toward the GFS for us, which means lessening chance of storms Tuesday and an earlier frontal passage Wednesday.

[Iceresistance]

And my Storm Shelter is ready

[CentralNebWeather]

Local forecast for Tuesday, highs of 83-90 degrees with a south wind gusting over 40 MPH as the dry slot once again rears its ugly head.  More fires?  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Top severe weather analog for this Tuesday 

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Top severe weather analog for this Tuesday 

[Iceresistance]

Local met from KFOR for Next Tuesday

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS continues to own the Euro wrt this system.  For days the GFS has not budged an inch with its prediction of a sunrise frontal passage Wednesday, so no warm day or storms.  Every run of the Euro, including the latest, gets closer to the GFS.  The latest run has the frontal passage around noon, so the 70º day is now gone.  Also, the latest Euro has the storms barely catching Cedar Rapids before they move east of the area.  This morning's UK is even closer to the GFS and has no storms in eastern Iowa.

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS continues to own the Euro wrt this system.  For days the GFS has not budged an inch with its prediction of a sunrise frontal passage Wednesday, so no warm day or storms.  Every run of the Euro, including the latest, gets closer to the GFS.  The latest run has the frontal passage around noon, so the 70º day is now gone.  Also, the latest Euro has the storms barely catching Cedar Rapids before they move east of the area.  This morning's UK is even closer to the GFS and has no storms in eastern Iowa.

Did you somehow forget that there's an Enhanced risk just outside of Des Moines for Tuesday's system?

[hawkstwelve]

Unless we can score some thunderstorms Tuesday night, this system has quickly turned into another whimper for Sioux Falls. What was once looking like a system with severe storm potential followed by a blizzard has turned into a little rain and some wind. Lame.

12z Euro does show the Easter system delivering 7+ inches of snow for KFSD but with how the storms have gone over the past month I've been here, going to assume it will find a way to miss us again. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I have tickets for Dodgers @ Twins on Wednesday, so if the dry slot verifies I'd be superrrr happy.

[Madtown]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro flashing a Taste of Summer for the heartland on Tuesday...

 

All a while, a Blizzard will more than likely be taking aim for the Upper MW just hours later...a bit of a shift Etowards N MN with the heaviest snows... @Beltrami Island Go Big or Go Home say the 0z Euro??

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS/Canadien say ND is the epicenter...

 

 

 

Ya, looking deeper into the data, the 0z EPS certainly is shifting E with the heaviest snows in the last 24 hours...could be the Big Dog of the season for the Northwoods of MN...

 

 

So close yet so far over here

[Iceresistance]

@Hawkeye Enhanced risk for Tornadoes & BIG Hail in place for most of Iowa for Tuesday

[Clinton]

Iowa could be in for a bumpy day tomorrow.  The cap will be an issue further south, it will be interesting to see if any storms can break through the cap in Kansas tomorrow afternoon.

[james1976]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Hawkeye Enhanced risk for Tornadoes & BIG Hail in place for most of Iowa for Tuesday

I'll be heading back down to Iowa tomorrow morning. Could be interesting for sure

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I have a decent shot at my first rumbles of thunder tomorrow night it appears. Maybe some small hail but I really don't see the point of including MSP in any risk zone.

[mlgamer]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Iowa could be in for a bumpy day tomorrow.  The cap will be an issue further south, it will be interesting to see if any storms can break through the cap in Kansas tomorrow afternoon.

For MBY it seems a pre-midnight squall line is the most likely scenario, hopefully without any embedded tornadoes and perhaps beginning to weaken as it gets to my area. Any discrete storms that form earlier and sustain their strength could be a real problem.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Given the lack of almost any afternoon convection showing up on any of the models, I'm definitely more pessimistic on tomorrow. 

At this point, only the HRRR-v3 is showing anything in Kansas in the afternoon and that is a single supercell that blows up and moves northeast across eastern Kansas.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up chasing the warm front or triple point and hope something goes up with at least a couple of hours of daylight left, otherwise the front lights up but not until near/after sunset.

[Iceresistance]

Y'all need to keep in mind that the models have a bad tendency of overestimating the Cap.

[WinterSquall23]

20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unless we can score some thunderstorms Tuesday night, this system has quickly turned into another whimper for Sioux Falls. What was once looking like a system with severe storm potential followed by a blizzard has turned into a little rain and some wind. Lame.

12z Euro does show the Easter system delivering 7+ inches of snow for KFSD but with how the storms have gone over the past month I've been here, going to assume it will find a way to miss us again. 

Meanwhile.. In Portland its snowing. April 11.   Several inches reported in the hills above.  Last time that happened was 80 years ago. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

SPC focused the 10% hatched down to western Iowa and talks about lack of convection further south. Much shorter drive for me at least!

Here’s the updated graphic from Omaha