April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system

[Iceresistance]

This needs a topic of itself, Big Joe B & Mike Ventrice are very concerned for severe storms across Oklahoma & Texas starting April 11th (Members that could get Supercell storms:  @Iceresistance(Me ). @Andie, & @OKwx2k4.)

Joe Bastardi's Tweet

 

Mike Ventrice on April 13th (Nothing yet from the SPC due to high model divergence at time of forecasting)

 

[jaster220]

This looking like another version of December's TOR craziness!

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This looking like another version of December's TOR craziness!

Except this time, it's in the Central & Southern Plains . . . 

 

Forgot to mention that Mike Ventrice's Forecast needs to be treated with a Grain of Salt

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro all want to move the Low over Nebraska and have the heavy precipitation north.  Really not shocking as that has been the theme since the Fall.  Have to hope models come back south, though this year that has meant south of Nebraska.

[Andie]

Oh well, it sounds like another very active spring where we duck and dodge the hail and high winds. 

That's not out of the ordinary for us, but when the hail climbs above marble and winds exceed 50mh, I'm ready to duck and cover. 

Just out of curiosity what's creating the uptick in strength?  Also, I have noticed that as our winters have become prone to deeper arctic cold, how is this affecting our springtime weather?

[Iceresistance]

38 minutes ago, Andie said:

Just out of curiosity what's creating the uptick in strength?  Also, I have noticed that as our winters have become prone to deeper arctic cold, how is this affecting our springtime weather?

Spring storms are usually more crazy, but it's still anyone's guess for the Spring season after winter because 2021 was crazier with winter, but less crazy with the Spring Storms. 2022 (Now) also had a crazy winter, & it's posed with a equally crazy spring as well, already a record high number of Tornado Warnings issued from NWS-DFW.

[Andie]

We’re very much in a period of turbulence.  The DFW area is under a high wind warning till 7am.  

Nighttime wind is curious. Usually it’s the daytime wind blowing us off the map.  
Newbies to Texas hate our crazy weather .   “Wilcommen!!!”

edit:  We’re also under high fire warnings.  Warm, dry, windy. 
Oh yeah. 

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Andie said:

We’re very much in a period of turbulence.  The DFW area is under a high wind warning till 7am.  

Nighttime wind is curious. Usually it’s the daytime wind blowing us off the map.  
Newbies to Texas hate our crazy weather .   “Wilcommen!!!”

In Oklahoma, it's known as "Sweeping down the Plains!"

 

Nebraska has managed to record Hurricane-force wind gusts.

[Andie]

I don’t know if Texas has a phrase for it. Most of us say it’s windy as hell!  
Or simply, “Breezy”.

[Iceresistance]

@Andie

My Local TV met will let us know if it's going to be windy soon if they say something like: "Cranking up the Wind Machine"

[Iceresistance]

Got this forecast from KWTV-News 9, you can clearly see the high moisture/Dewpoint levels Next Week

[OKwx2k4]

Definitely of concern about the upcoming weather. Areas west of Tulsa and metros look to be safer than I do at this juncture. Will be watching it develop.

Possible late freeze Saturday also. Lots of folks out enjoying wild edibles this time of year (morels and wild onions) are going to be miffed off.

[Clinton]

3 day severe weather event next week.  If the gulf moisture can surge northward things could get real dicey!

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS has highs next Tuesday in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dews dropping into the 20s/RH dropping into the single digits in south central Nebraska into north central Kansas.

One thing I notice about severe potential/storm chances on Tuesday and probably why the GFS doesn't break out any storms on Tuesday afternoon is the lack of convergence along the dry line. Notice how you have almost no change in wind direction from the dry air to the moist air.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS and ICON dry slot most of Nebraska as it heads north.  Just as I said yesterday.  Will need it to really shift south if we want any meaningful precipitation.  Not looking good as of now.

[OmahaSnowFan]

DOT camera from out at Kearney, NE in central Nebraska showing the blowing dust

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

GFS and ICON dry slot most of Nebraska as it heads north.  Just as I said yesterday.  Will need it to really shift south if we want any meaningful precipitation.  Not looking good as of now.

Yeah, they've trended toward an almost total nothingburger for Nebraska and Iowa for the entire week.  The early week cold front shoots through the region with no precip, then that front holds all the convection way south.  Meanwhile, the big low then tracks nw of the area so all the good lift/forcing is across the Dakotas and Minnesota.  In between the low and the southern convection there is nothing.  Ugh.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS was definitely a bit of a shift back southward compared to 00z and 06z runs for next week's storm. Still plenty of time for this thing to work out for SE SD/NE/IA.

[CentralNebWeather]

45 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, they've trended toward an almost total nothingburger for Nebraska and Iowa for the entire week.  The early week cold front shoots through the region with no precip, then that front holds all the convection way south.  Meanwhile, the big low then tracks nw of the area so all the good lift/forcing is across the Dakotas and Minnesota.  In between the low and the southern convection there is nothing.  Ugh.

We've been missed in every direction this season.  You would think our luck would turn with at least one of these.  Not looking promising in any model.  

[snowstorm83]

Yikes blowing dust advisory put out all the way to Lancaster county. Says visibility between a quarter mile to a mile. Will probably be a greater concern outside of the city but D**n. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yikes blowing dust advisory put out all the way to Lancaster county. Says visibility between a quarter mile to a mile. Will probably be a greater concern outside of the city but D**n. 

Couldn't see outside of town around noon today.  This is like the 1930's.  Not good for anyone.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is much different than the other models.  First, the other models blow the early-week front way south of the region, pushing all convection far away.  The Euro, however, continues to stall the front up in this area.  Because of this, the Euro has multiple rounds of storms across Iowa and into the lakes.  Then, midweek, the Euro is much farther south with the main low.  This leads to major precip across Nebraska.  I really hope the Euro is right.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is much different than the other models.  First, the other models blow the early-week front way south of the region, pushing all convection far away.  The Euro, however, continues to stall the front up in this area.  Because of this, the Euro has multiple rounds of storms across Iowa and into the lakes.  Then, midweek, the Euro is much farther south with the main low.  This leads to major precip across Nebraska.  I really hope the Euro is right.

You beat me to it.  Was just going to post the 12Z Euro, great minds think a like.   This would be a dream scenario, either rain or snow would be fine at this point.  As I watched out my 2nd floor classroom at lunch, I could see the dust rolling across the north edge of town.  Any moisture would be a god send.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice change on the 12z Euro! Good jump south from the 00z run. Now just need to get a little consistency on the track. 

Edit: Ya'll beat me to the punch. All hoping for the same outcome!

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, this is the GFS.   The Euro and GFS are on different planets.

[hawkstwelve]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, this is the GFS.   The Euro and GFS are on different planets.

I'd always place my bet on the Euro in this range. Just need it to stick to this solution for more than a single run to gain some confidence. 

[Clinton]

Hope I'm wrong but I lean towards the GFS on this upcoming storm, I'm much more optimistic about rain for Nebraska with the following storm on the 16th.

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, this is the GFS.   The Euro and GFS are on different planets.

Seems like there is always a meanwhile in the models this year. 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS was definitely a bit of a shift back southward compared to 00z and 06z runs for next week's storm. Still plenty of time for this thing to work out for SE SD/NE/IA.

@MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?!

[Iceresistance]

41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

@MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?!

Sounds like that the storm systems hate @MSP_Weather , they always snow when he's not there!

[IMoveALot_Weather]

43 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

@MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?!

Lowkey yeah...

[hawkstwelve]

Nice improvement on the 12z EPS for KFSD compared to previous runs. The number of extreme members (7+ inches) nearly doubled from 00z and puts our chances at around 40%.

[Iceresistance]

Also, it appears that the storm systems starting April 10th are slowing down (West shift), they do have a really bad tendency to do that over me for some reason.

[Andie]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

3 day severe weather event next week.  If the gulf moisture can surge northward things could get real dicey!

It’s been blowing hard all day. Gusting to 45-50 mph. Really uncomfortable. Certainly acting like it’s setting things up for a change.  It’s the right timing for a warm up  

If this is any preview midweek should be a lulu!

[Iceresistance]

April 12th is now needed to be watched very closely, 18z GFS went absolutely full-outbreak mode for Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, & Missouri. I'll put out the parameters on a different post because it's going to be huge.

[Tom]

0z Euro...still advertising a major blizzard but its cutting this storm NW....what a temp gradient pattern across NE next week...

 

 

Crazy winds yet again for the High Plains...

 

[Clinton]

It always opens up a hornets nest anytime I bring up the LRC but here I go anyways.  This storm fits the part of the pattern related to Dec 10th which produced a severe and deadly tornado outbreak for the Ohio Valley and is a big reason I favour the further south solutions with this storm.

The following storm showing up after Easter will also be a big severe weather producer further NW.

Current day 6 outlook.

[Iceresistance]

10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

April 12th is now needed to be watched very closely, 18z GFS went absolutely full-outbreak mode for Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, & Missouri. I'll put out the parameters on a different post because it's going to be huge.

Whoops, guess I forgot it was bedtime.

[Iceresistance]

The High Parameters are also increasing further south for April 12th, this is the 6z GFS sounding over OKC

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It always opens up a hornets nest anytime I bring up the LRC but here I go anyways.  This storm fits the part of the pattern related to Dec 10th which produced a severe and deadly tornado outbreak for the Ohio Valley and is a big reason I favour the further south solutions with this storm.

The following storm showing up around Easter will also be a big severe weather producer further NW.

Current day 6 outlook.

Back 2 Back cutters?  I don’t see why not…it certainly fits the pattern.  Usually we hear about a Palm Sunday severe wx event but this year it may just end up being an Easter Day storm threat.

[Andie]

DFW had a strong storm system in 2000 Easter.  Interesting.  

[Clinton]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Back 2 Back cutters?  I don’t see why not…it certainly fits the pattern.  Usually we hear about a Palm Sunday severe wx event but this year it may just end up being an Easter Day storm threat.

Good call on the back to back cutters, I hope the drought areas can get some relief but models are already indicating moisture may stay east.

[james1976]

Local met has his eye on Wed for potential severe wx for eastern IA

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, it appears the cooler and drier GFS scenario is winning and the warm, wet Euro lost.  The Euro is now blowing the early-week front well through the area, so now instead of rounds of storms around here there is nothing.  Ugh.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS splits the storm next week as it comes across then dry slots Nebraska as more wind comes through.  This is just unbelievable at this point.  If things aren't bad enough now, it may only get worse next week as rains don't come.  

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS has a Mean Supercell Composite of a 10 in Southern & Central Kansas 

[Hawkeye]

The latest GFS, GDPS, and UK all show little precip out of this entire system through much of Nebraska and Iowa.

[Iceresistance]

Sunday has a Marginal risk, this does need to be watched because if one of the storms manages to break the cap, we could have some isolated supercellular action from Texas to Oklahoma & to Missouri

[Iceresistance]

Found this sounding over town (Tecumseh) for Next Tuesday on the 18z GFS & I'm going to get the storm shelter ready in a few days.

[Iceresistance]

Goodness gracious, this sounding on the 18z GFS over OKC on Next Tuesday is looking very dangerous for Powerful Supercells, parts of Kansas has slightly more favorable Shear, the offset is the LCL is much weaker, but this sounding over OKC does not have that issue. O_O