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April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system


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Down here in Aplington. Out on the deck with a cold one. Just got the charcoals lit. It's up to 70 now and almost feels muggy. Getting cloudy now too. Love watching this whole thing unfold even though the main severe threat is west of me. Incredible system. 90 in Omaha, a raging blizzard in North Dakota and tornadoes in between. Impressive 

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Tornado Warnings flying in north central IA. I'm getting the cloud cover blowing out from those storms. Pretty amazing as they are well to my west. I can see the southern and eastern edge of those clouds off to MY south and east. That's how far the cloud deck has expanded off those storms.

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The Mets tried their best to talk this up as severe but in Ft Worth it was just a good rain. About 1/2”.  Could have used more.  
Dallas I’d getting some heavy rain as well.  Humidity dropped to 58% and 63*.  
Not bad.  Could use some more.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Hard to tell from the picture but some very cool, very high topped clouds moving in with that cell from the west. 

20220412_192943.jpg

All the ones I've seen up to this point are smaller than that! 

Hope you get a good rumbler.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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25 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

5.5 inch hail has been confirmed in Salado, TX

Between DFW and Austin.  They got ‘clocked’ for sure.  So glad we missed that as we got a new roof last year. 
Dang!  That’s big! 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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40 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Man those cells in IA & NE look intense 

There's something quite explosive about that line. Very few do this that fast. ;)

KOAX_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie How much rain did you get?

Bit of a disappointment. About a 1/2”.  
Yourself??

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 minutes ago, Andie said:

Between DFW and Austin.  They got ‘clocked’ for sure.  So glad we missed that as we got a new roof last year. 
Dang!  That’s big! 

But . . . . . it's not the biggest . . . 

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Just now, Andie said:

Bit of a disappointment. About a 1/2”.  
Yourself??

Nada! Not even a single storm even developed in Oklahoma, I hope that the line that is developing further south in Kansas will reach me overnight & give me some rainfall.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Any chance that becomes an all night long into early AM event going into Ohio valley? Anxious for my first derecho in my new area. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Unfortunately the interesting clouds didn't really amount to much here besides some rain as the bulk of it moved off to the NW.

Most of the action seemed to dance around me today. I had about 10 mins of some low rumbling thunder from a distance, some rain, and a little tiny hail. Not much to write home about. Actually had more excitement from the storms on 3/29. Guess we'll get em next time!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

Any chance that becomes an all night long into early AM event going into Ohio valley? Anxious for my first derecho in my new area. 

Slim chance of that. I'd be more excited about your prospects for you tomorrow, as this line fizzles out. 

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2 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Slim chance of that. I'd be more excited about your prospects for you tomorrow, as this line fizzles out. 

I like the days that come in multiple rounds. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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44 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

There's something quite explosive about that line. Very few do this that fast. ;)

KOAX_loop.gif

Can’t wait until it’s us getting nailed by one of those.

Won’t be long. Climo for severe is exponentiating now.

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23 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Any chance that becomes an all night long into early AM event going into Ohio valley? Anxious for my first derecho in my new area. 

Progressive derechos are more of a midsummer thing around these parts. Serial derechos can happen in spring/fall but aren’t as common.

Spring severe is more of the classical warm sectoring with high shear favoring quasi-linear segments and supercells. We’re getting into that phase of the season right about now.

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Well that was fun… had a nice thunderstorm roll through this evening with some small hail, lots of cloud to ground lighting, and most importantly around .40” of rain. 

Sirens sounded here twice for rotation in the metro area along the line, one area on the north side of the metro and the other on the southeast side.

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Touched 80°F here today. Downsloping def added a few degrees.

Thursday could be an active thunderstorm day if the front waits until 3-4pm, maximizing daytime heating. Otherwise, convective initiation probably happens to the east of here.

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As expected, supercells are weakening as they head north out of Iowa and towards me. 48*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Posted by NWS Brownsville TX on facebook. 🍹⛈️

278478335_352806990219483_3130523485855863946_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The dry line pushed through my area earlier than storms where able to develop. Made it up to 90 today. What happened after the dry line blew through was something I have never seen. Winds switched to the west/northwest and blowing dust blew through. I went out 2 miles to our east and visibility was a half mile or so. There was also a major accident 5 miles to the north on highway 81. I stayed on the country roads but it was clear that highway was not a place you wanted to be on. Welcome to the dust bowl 2022. 

 

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39 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The dry line pushed through my area earlier than storms where able to develop. Made it up to 90 today. What happened after the dry line blew through was something I have never seen. Winds switched to the west/northwest and blowing dust blew through. I went out 2 miles to our east and visibility was a half mile or so. There was also a major accident 5 miles to the north on highway 81. I stayed on the country roads but it was clear that highway was not a place you wanted to be on. Welcome to the dust bowl 2022. 

 

Looks no different than Mars.

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5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

The dry line pushed through my area earlier than storms where able to develop. Made it up to 90 today. What happened after the dry line blew through was something I have never seen. Winds switched to the west/northwest and blowing dust blew through. I went out 2 miles to our east and visibility was a half mile or so. There was also a major accident 5 miles to the north on highway 81. I stayed on the country roads but it was clear that highway was not a place you wanted to be on. Welcome to the dust bowl 2022. 

 

IMG_1721.MOV

My goodness, that does look like a modern day dust bowl out in NE....you guys are living through history for sure...

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9 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unfortunately the interesting clouds didn't really amount to much here besides some rain as the bulk of it moved off to the NW.

Most of the action seemed to dance around me today. I had about 10 mins of some low rumbling thunder from a distance, some rain, and a little tiny hail. Not much to write home about. Actually had more excitement from the storms on 3/29. Guess we'll get em next time!

One thing about the Midwest Thunderstorms.  They are impressive.  !   I wonder if this is the same storm that caused it to snow at sea level in Portland.  That is an intense cold pool running into the heat here .  

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Scattered  thunderstorms.  More chances today but I won’t hold my breath   Hoping our Spring sees more rain before the tap is shut off  

73*.  82% Humidity.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Moderate includes western Kentucky. This is at least the 2nd (I'm thinking 3rd) in the Paducah forecasting area since Mayfield. 

day1otlk_1300.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Picked up .48" of rain overnight. My current temp  is 41.5. Highs the next week are forecast to be in the mid 50s to around 60 so back to cool weather again...

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Models have trended toward more widespread precip here this afternoon and evening as the next upper wave lifts northeastward.  They are also showing a band of snow on the backside of the precip shield.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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45 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Moderate includes western Kentucky. This is at least the 2nd (I'm thinking 3rd) in the Paducah forecasting area since Mayfield. 

day1otlk_1300.png

Lezak made this prediction 120 days ago.  Looks very similar.

Severe Risk Verification

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KSRX_loop1.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - 15th(?) Storm systems with Severe Storms. Moderate Risk for D1

As expected, the line significantly weakened by the time it reached eastern Iowa.  We only had a brief downpour and a bit of light rain that added up to 0.08".  I never understood why the enhanced severe outlook extended all the way to Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like it's about to get going in the favored area.

MD 476 graphic

   DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower
   Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV.
   However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly
   over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf
   moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is
   expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama.
   Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and
   northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it
   appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the
   convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly
   west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel
   around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around
   22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
   ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not
   only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall
   line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection
   to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are
   expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough
   advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the
   low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather
   hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential
   for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A
   tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours.
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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system
  • hawkstwelve unpinned this topic

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