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April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system


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17 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro flashing a Taste of Summer for the heartland on Tuesday...

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All a while, a Blizzard will more than likely be taking aim for the Upper MW just hours later...a bit of a shift Etowards N MN with the heaviest snows... @Beltrami Island Go Big or Go Home say the 0z Euro??

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Meantime, the 0z GFS/Canadien say ND is the epicenter...

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Ya, looking deeper into the data, the 0z EPS certainly is shifting E with the heaviest snows in the last 24 hours...could be the Big Dog of the season for the Northwoods of MN...

 

 

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So close yet so far over here

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - (?) Storm systems with Severe Storms. Triple Trouble Enhanced Risks
2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Iowa could be in for a bumpy day tomorrow.  The cap will be an issue further south, it will be interesting to see if any storms can break through the cap in Kansas tomorrow afternoon.

0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook

For MBY it seems a pre-midnight squall line is the most likely scenario, hopefully without any embedded tornadoes and perhaps beginning to weaken as it gets to my area. Any discrete storms that form earlier and sustain their strength could be a real problem.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.3" (as of 2/17/24)

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Given the lack of almost any afternoon convection showing up on any of the models, I'm definitely more pessimistic on tomorrow. 

At this point, only the HRRR-v3 is showing anything in Kansas in the afternoon and that is a single supercell that blows up and moves northeast across eastern Kansas.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up chasing the warm front or triple point and hope something goes up with at least a couple of hours of daylight left, otherwise the front lights up but not until near/after sunset.

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20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unless we can score some thunderstorms Tuesday night, this system has quickly turned into another whimper for Sioux Falls. What was once looking like a system with severe storm potential followed by a blizzard has turned into a little rain and some wind. Lame.

12z Euro does show the Easter system delivering 7+ inches of snow for KFSD but with how the storms have gone over the past month I've been here, going to assume it will find a way to miss us again. 

Meanwhile.. In Portland its snowing. April 11.   Several inches reported in the hills above.  Last time that happened was 80 years ago. 

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The NWS-Springfield Radar is dead, Lightning struck it & blew up some parts, they're trying to get replacement parts back in as fast as possible, but the restoration time is unknown

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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All models have moved up the Wednesday frontal passage to first thing in the morning for my area.  Most models also show the Tuesday night storms crapping out before reaching here.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I'm a little concerned about tomorrow's severe weather. SPC seems to think it'll be rocking and rolling in Iowa, but reading AFD casts some doubt. 

Yep. Here it is from DMX-

Following with and behind the theta-e surge will be a band of low
stratus that will lift north and then northeastward per the 00z/12z
HREF. It looks like there will be clearing in the warm sector over
at least southwest Iowa as the warm front lifts into Iowa with
greater uncertainty in clearing farther northeast. From here, there
appear to be at least two possible outcomes in the afternoon. The
first are the models with the faster surface low progression. The
HRRR is the farthest east by 00z with the surface low with the RAP
and GFS lagging just a bit farther west closer to Sioux City. With
these models being farther east with the low compared to the NAM and
ECMWF, they pull the warm front 30 to 60 miles farther northeastward
up towards Highway 20. HRRR and RAP forecast soundings at FOD show
the elevated warm layer eroding with any inhibition breakable as the
warm front reaches a location. Surface based CAPE will be around or
in excess of 3000 J/kg and with the surface low`s closer proximity
to north central Iowa, backed surface winds are helping to increase
the storm relative helicity. Deep layer shear over 60 knots and 0-
1km SRH values are in excess of 300 m2/s2 and hodograph curvature in
the low levels are showing a model environment favorable for
supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and hail
would also be hazards. This is not certain and will depend on the
low and warm front position and enough forcing to break the
lingering cap with the more likely time for stronger forcing toward
and after dark. The other solution of the NAMNest, NAM, and ECMWF
shows the low pressure moving slower with it over eastern Nebraska
at 00z. Thus, the warm front is farther south in Iowa and with the
low farther west there is a lack of forcing to overcome the
inhibition. Thus, with forcing lacking, inhibition would not be
overcome leading to less if no convection. So, the afternoon is far
from set on the possible outcome and will need to watch the low and
warm front positions tomorrow as well as incoming guidance over the
next 18 to 24 hours.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I find the high rez FV3 does really well inside 48 hours and it's showing a nasty line coming through here on Wed around dinner time.  We'll need the sun to come out to get all the dynamics to come together.  Confidence is growing that N IL could be under a real good threat for the 1st time this season.

 

 

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The 0z RGEM showing a bowing line....

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It's looking like my area won't get much out of this system.  The most bullish models show a decaying line moving through around midnight.  Wednesday is out now because the front has sped up so much.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The cap is going to kill any real chance of thunderstorms for mby tonight.  I fear there will be a huge tornado outbreak tomorrow over the lower Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley, the same areas that had a deadly tornado outbreak already.

day2otlk_0600.gif

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How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening? I notice both Fort Smith and northern part of Little Rock (AFB?) had tornadoes within an hour or two.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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30 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening?

FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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12 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night.

After opening that up to any state, Fort Smith might not be considered major with a pop under 100k, but it is the 2nd most populous in AR. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - (?) Storm systems with Severe Storms. Double Moderate Risks for D1 & D2

I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska:

869364975_Tab2FileL(1).thumb.png.af3312675131da41ac2098575f64199a.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Just now, MSP_Weather said:

Hearing my first rumbles of thunder since last September. 56°F.

There's a Severe storm near Red Wing, MN with Ping Pong ball sized hail.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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54 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska:

869364975_Tab2FileL(1).thumb.png.af3312675131da41ac2098575f64199a.png

You just hope that some winter we could have something close to this.  Been so long, you start to lose hope.

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep.  Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29.  Hello Vegas and Phoenix.

Actually might be blowing dust after all being picked up. 

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
NWS HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087-130000-
/O.EXA.KGID.DU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220413T0000Z/
328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022
Smith KS-Jewell KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-Valley NE-Greeley NE-Nance
NE-Sherman NE-Howard NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-Buffalo NE-Hall
NE-Hamilton NE-York NE-Kearney NE-Adams NE-Clay NE-Fillmore
NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE-Nuckolls NE-Thayer NE-

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in
blowing dust.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced
visibility.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A plume of blowing dust has been moving
from southwest to northeast across the eastern part of the
Hastings forecast area this afternoon with several reports of
lowered visibility. Southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front
will shift to the northwest over the next few hours. This will
push the dust from northwest to southeast. Be prepared for
rapidly changing visibility due to blowing dust.
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