April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system

[CentralNebWeather]

As the severe weather and blizzard are going on, we will have temps from 85-90 tomorrow, humidity around 10%, and winds gusting over 50 MPH.  Please make it stop.

[Iceresistance]

The NWS-Springfield Radar is dead, Lightning struck it & blew up some parts, they're trying to get replacement parts back in as fast as possible, but the restoration time is unknown

[Hawkeye]

All models have moved up the Wednesday frontal passage to first thing in the morning for my area.  Most models also show the Tuesday night storms crapping out before reaching here.

[Thunder98]

Dickinson, ND is looking like the place to be for this big winter storm. After this storm, lows in the single digits in April. 

 

 

[Bellona]

I'm a little concerned about tomorrow's severe weather. SPC seems to think it'll be rocking and rolling in Iowa, but reading AFD casts some doubt. 

[Grizzcoat]

3 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I'm a little concerned about tomorrow's severe weather. SPC seems to think it'll be rocking and rolling in Iowa, but reading AFD casts some doubt. 

Yep. Here it is from DMX-

Following with and behind the theta-e surge will be a band of low
stratus that will lift north and then northeastward per the 00z/12z
HREF. It looks like there will be clearing in the warm sector over
at least southwest Iowa as the warm front lifts into Iowa with
greater uncertainty in clearing farther northeast. From here, there
appear to be at least two possible outcomes in the afternoon. The
first are the models with the faster surface low progression. The
HRRR is the farthest east by 00z with the surface low with the RAP
and GFS lagging just a bit farther west closer to Sioux City. With
these models being farther east with the low compared to the NAM and
ECMWF, they pull the warm front 30 to 60 miles farther northeastward
up towards Highway 20. HRRR and RAP forecast soundings at FOD show
the elevated warm layer eroding with any inhibition breakable as the
warm front reaches a location. Surface based CAPE will be around or
in excess of 3000 J/kg and with the surface low`s closer proximity
to north central Iowa, backed surface winds are helping to increase
the storm relative helicity. Deep layer shear over 60 knots and 0-
1km SRH values are in excess of 300 m2/s2 and hodograph curvature in
the low levels are showing a model environment favorable for
supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and hail
would also be hazards. This is not certain and will depend on the
low and warm front position and enough forcing to break the
lingering cap with the more likely time for stronger forcing toward
and after dark. The other solution of the NAMNest, NAM, and ECMWF
shows the low pressure moving slower with it over eastern Nebraska
at 00z. Thus, the warm front is farther south in Iowa and with the
low farther west there is a lack of forcing to overcome the
inhibition. Thus, with forcing lacking, inhibition would not be
overcome leading to less if no convection. So, the afternoon is far
from set on the possible outcome and will need to watch the low and
warm front positions tomorrow as well as incoming guidance over the
next 18 to 24 hours.

[Iceresistance]

What if the Triple Point is a Cap bust & Kansas southward gets all the storms?

[OmahaSnowFan]

26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What if the Triple Point is a Cap bust & Kansas southward gets all the storms?

Triple points are almost never a cap bust. You have the max amount of forcing there, plus the upper level cooling with main energy.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Various helicity tracks for tomorrow off of the 18Z CAM's. I'm thinking Sioux City if the warm front/triple point makes it that far north. 

[Tom]

I find the high rez FV3 does really well inside 48 hours and it's showing a nasty line coming through here on Wed around dinner time.  We'll need the sun to come out to get all the dynamics to come together.  Confidence is growing that N IL could be under a real good threat for the 1st time this season.

 

 

 

 

 

The 0z RGEM showing a bowing line....

 

 

[Hawkeye]

It's looking like my area won't get much out of this system.  The most bullish models show a decaying line moving through around midnight.  Wednesday is out now because the front has sped up so much.

[hawkstwelve]

Moderate risk has been added for parts of Iowa and my county (Lincoln) is now under enhanced risk near Sioux Falls.

Looks like the window for any potential thunderstorms for SE SD should be fairly small as the system is quick to progress ENE but should still hopefully be fun to watch!

[Clinton]

The cap is going to kill any real chance of thunderstorms for mby tonight.  I fear there will be a huge tornado outbreak tomorrow over the lower Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley, the same areas that had a deadly tornado outbreak already.

[Timmy Supercell]

How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening? I notice both Fort Smith and northern part of Little Rock (AFB?) had tornadoes within an hour or two.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Up to slight risk here. Hail looks to be my biggest threat. Given last year's absolute dud of a severe season, I'll take anything. Thankfully I have a garage.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

30 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening?

FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night.

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night.

After opening that up to any state, Fort Smith might not be considered major with a pop under 100k, but it is the 2nd most populous in AR. 

[Iceresistance]

The CINH is weakening rapidly over Oklahoma, fell from -200 to -75 (Generally) in some spots in the last 2 hours.

 

That wind though, it's CRAZY!

[OmahaSnowFan]

No biggie. Just possible long track strong tornadoes and baseball sized hail

[snowstorm83]

I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska:

[Iceresistance]

Supercell in Western Texas right now

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Hearing my first rumbles of thunder since last September. 56°F.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, MSP_Weather said:

Hearing my first rumbles of thunder since last September. 56°F.

There's a Severe storm near Red Wing, MN with Ping Pong ball sized hail.

[CentralNebWeather]

54 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska:

You just hope that some winter we could have something close to this.  Been so long, you start to lose hope.

[Clinton]

Tornado watch about to go out.  Seems a little further west than predicted this morning.

[gabel23]

I'm assuming this is the dry line showing up on the radar??

[Clinton]

@Andie a tornado watch coming your way also.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I'm assuming this is the dry line showing up on the radar??

Yep.  Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29.  Hello Vegas and Phoenix.

[gabel23]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep.  Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29.  Hello Vegas and Phoenix.

Figured it was that or a darn Haboob forming!!! We made it up to 88 so far, will see if storms fire before the dryline pushes through my area. 

[gabel23]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep.  Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29.  Hello Vegas and Phoenix.

Actually might be blowing dust after all being picked up. 

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
NWS HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087-130000-
/O.EXA.KGID.DU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220413T0000Z/
328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022
Smith KS-Jewell KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-Valley NE-Greeley NE-Nance
NE-Sherman NE-Howard NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-Buffalo NE-Hall
NE-Hamilton NE-York NE-Kearney NE-Adams NE-Clay NE-Fillmore
NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE-Nuckolls NE-Thayer NE-

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in
blowing dust.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced
visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A plume of blowing dust has been moving
from southwest to northeast across the eastern part of the
Hastings forecast area this afternoon with several reports of
lowered visibility. Southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front
will shift to the northwest over the next few hours. This will
push the dust from northwest to southeast. Be prepared for
rapidly changing visibility due to blowing dust.

[OmahaSnowFan]

90 in Lincoln, 88 at my house in Omaha and 66 outside my car in NW Iowa

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Andie a tornado watch coming your way also.

Curses! I've been split in the middle!

[hawkstwelve]

Just got put under my first Tornado Watch. Not sure if I should be excited or not though...

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

90.3 IMBY!

Meanwhile I’m on the northern edge of the darker orange area highlighted. Initiation has begun to my southwest.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Andie a tornado watch coming your way also.

We hit 86 today so plenty of heating.

They're forecasting possible hail and high winds with possible tornadoes till 7-7:30.

It's really gusty out there and overcast.  Currently some showers off to the NE but it's just getting warmed up.

We're in the Northern section of the tornado forecast so it is likely to go south of us. It's really gusty out there and overcast.  Currently some showers off to the NE but it's just getting warmed up.

[hawkstwelve]

Shot up to almost 70 degrees with a DP of 59. Feels warm and a bit muggy out there with some sunbreaks.

Looks like a cell or two have developed NW of Yankton and are heading this direction. Almost showtime!

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Shot up to almost 70 degrees with a DP of 59. Feels warm and a bit muggy out there with some sunbreaks.

Looks like a cell or two have developed NW of Yankton and are heading this direction. Almost showtime!

You’re pretty close to the warm front up there. I always prefer to be on the east side vs the west side of the warm sector, in case of delayed initiation/etc.

[Bellona]

We have significantly over our high temp. Supposed to be 62, it is now 70. Do went from 40 to 55 in about an hour. Might serve our severe chances. I'm not overly excited about the tornado threat where I am, but hail and wind could be significant.

[CentralNebWeather]

At a track meet on the north side of town. Northwest wind really picking up. Blowing dust. Just a dreadful day. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Curses! I've been split in the middle!

Me too.  I will be lucky to get rain.

[Hawkeye]

The radar loop well south of Dallas is interesting.  There was a strong tornado signature moving eastward toward I-35, then it suddenly turned left and shot due north.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Is OmahaSnowFan storm chasing?

[CentralNebWeather]

Still at the track meet. When it started at 4 pm it was 88 degrees. Now at 6:10 pm it has dropped to 59. Feels cold as the northwest wind is gusting over 50 mph. 

[james1976]

Tornado Watch has been expanded and just 1 county to my west now.

[hawkstwelve]

Well most of those cells passed by to my NW and it looks like the other cell forming near Canton will pass by to my SE. Guess I'm stuck in the middle with some of the other folks!

The cell around Milltown, SD and heading towards Emery, SD looks pretty legit. Tennis ball sized hail per NWS Sioux Falls.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado on the ground in Iowa!
 

 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well most of those cells passed by to my NW and it looks like the other cell forming near Canton will pass by to my SE. Guess I'm stuck in the middle with some of the other folks!

The cell around Milltown, SD and heading towards Emery, SD looks pretty legit. Tennis ball sized hail per NWS Sioux Falls.

That cell to your West is interesting. I think that one could reach you if it holds together. It’s right on the frontal boundary there so there’s strong forcing sustaining it, at least (I’m assuming you’re south of Sioux Falls).

[hawkstwelve]

 

[hawkstwelve]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That cell to your West is interesting. I think that one could reach you if it holds together. It’s right on the frontal boundary there so there’s strong forcing sustaining it, at least (I’m assuming you’re south of Sioux Falls).

Looks like that cell now includes a tornado.

 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie How much rain did you get?