May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have only had one August - 1968 and one July - 1983, that have had more than the average May rainfall. Only 7 July's s in the 1893-present period according to PRISM have had over 2" of rain, and only 13 August's. A wet July or August, is essentially never going to happen, even one that is as wet as the average May is a once in about 150 year event. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have only had one August - 1968 and one July - 1983, that have had more than the average May rainfall. Only 7 July's s in the 1893-present period according to PRISM have had over 2" of rain, and only 13 August's. A wet July or August, is essentially never going to happen, even one that is as wet as the average May is a once in about 150 year event. 

July and August are more variable up here.  

[Kayla]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May of 1983 and 1993 are also good examples.   There were long stretches of warm and dry weather in both those months out here.   I imagine it seemed like summer had really started.     May 1983 peaked at 98 degrees and May 1993 peaked at 87 degrees twice.   We can't even manage mid-70s this month.   The rainy pattern started up in late May in 1993 but not until the second week of June in 1983.  

Summer (Jun-Aug) never really came here in 1993 here with an average temp of 58.9F and over 12" of rainfall. Our last real cool and wet summer.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Summer (Jun-Aug) never really came here in 1993 here with an average temp of 58.9F and over 12" of rainfall. Our last real cool and wet summer.

You’re due!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting the mid-late 70s had several moist August's. 

Looking at Tim's area, the wettest August in the 1893-present period was actually 2004. 1968 is #2. Overall Tim's area is just much wetter in August. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is pretty nice... that western trough later next week is so broad that its not really that wet.   Looks like a mountain convection type pattern with fairly nice days overall.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not so much.

There was 19 days without measurable rain here in May of 1964.   That month had way more dry days than this year.   Normal is 16 days with rain and May 1964 only had 12.    In fact... that month ended up significantly drier than normal out here.   

Spring 1964 was troughy in the West. So was summer. Many examples of this.

I suspect summer 2022 (or at least the first half of it) will lean troughy in the West, as well. Analogs suggest that could change as we head into August/September, but volcanic summers often buck climatology, so it’s hard to say.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting the mid-late 70s had several moist August's. 

Looking at Tim's area, the wettest August in the 1893-present period was actually 2004. 1968 is #2. Overall Tim's area is just much wetter in August. 

Is July also significantly wetter compared to your area?

As I mentioned... July and August seem to be more variable up here.  Obviously those are the driest months of the year here as well, but it can be boom or bust in terms of rainy days.    And years with long dry periods in April and May tend to have more rainy days in JJA.    And the opposite is true as well.  

[Phil]

Possible tornado missed me by 5 miles. Second near miss of the spring.

Still some nice boom booms and bendy trees.

[Skagit Weather]

31 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Summer (Jun-Aug) never really came here in 1993 here with an average temp of 58.9F and over 12" of rainfall. Our last real cool and wet summer.

I just looked the stats up for that summer at Gallatin Field, and Summer 1993 may have been the most anomalous season ever in Bozeman with respect to high temperatures. The average high that summer was 71.8F which is about 9 degrees below the 30 year average, but also is 4.2 degrees colder than the average high for any other summer recorded.

I did a quick scan through the other seasons and that looks like it's the biggest difference between the record coldest season and the second coldest season.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Spring 1964 was troughy in the West. So was summer. Many examples of this.

I suspect summer 2022 (or at least the first half of it) will lean troughy in the West, as well. Analogs suggest that could change as we head into August/September, but volcanic summers often buck climatology, so it’s hard to say.

Troughy across the entire West can be pretty nice up here in the summer.   The worst is when there is strong high pressure parked to the south which focuses all the rain up here.    Its very nuanced though... sometimes high pressure to the south is just broad enough so we have generally dry weather but no heat.   While other times we can end up being quite wet in that pattern even in the summer.      

[TT-SEA]

And is this really a volcanic summer?   That is usually the result of SO2 being pumped into the stratosphere.   This time we have a large amount of water vapor pumped into the stratosphere which might have shaken up the pattern but does not lead to cooling of the Earth.   In fact... its just the opposite.  

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And is this really a volcanic summer?   That is usually the result of SO2 being pumped into the stratosphere.   This time we have a large amount of water vapor pumped into the stratosphere which might have shaken up the pattern but does not lead to cooling of the Earth.   In fact... its just the opposite.  

Doesn’t have to be SO2. And it’s not simply the cooling (or potential warming, in this case) that alters atmospheric weather patterns. It’s the manner in which the volcanic gases/aerosols alter radiative budgets/differential heating, and thus atmospheric circulation.

The sheer amount of material/gases ejected into the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga eruption is unprecedented in the modern era. Blows Pinatubo out of the water..literally.

It will have long lasting effects on global circulation. What those effects are? Still TBD. Each eruption is unique. Time of year, latitude, type of material ejected, and the in-situ ENSO/QBO/climate regime present at the time of the eruption, all matter.

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Doesn’t have to be SO2. And it’s not simply the cooling (or potential warming, in this case) that alters atmospheric weather patterns. It’s the manner in which the volcanic gases/aerosols alter radiative budgets/differential heating, and thus atmospheric circulation.

The sheer amount of material/gases ejected into the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga eruption is unprecedented in the modern era. Blows Pinatubo out of the water..literally.

It will have long lasting effects on global circulation. What those effects are? Still TBD. 

After Krakatoa SF had snow in 3 of 5 years. https://ggweather.com/sf/snow.html

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Doesn’t have to be SO2. And it’s not simply the cooling (or potential warming, in this case) that alters atmospheric weather patterns. It’s the manner in which the volcanic gases/aerosols alter radiative budgets/differential heating, and thus atmospheric circulation.

The sheer amount of material/gases ejected into the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga eruption is unprecedented in the modern era. Blows Pinatubo out of the water..literally.

It will have long lasting effects on global circulation. What those effects are? Still TBD. 

Given that stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas"... its quite likely it is going to have a warming effect over the next few years.

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Given that stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas"... its quite likely it is going to have a warming effect over the next few years.

I am hoping that it will temporarily reverse the Southwest drought. More moisture for AR's further south would be nice. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

I am hoping that it will temporarily reverse the Southwest drought. More moisture for AR's further south would be nice. 

Worth a shot... can't get any worse.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is July also significantly wetter compared to your area?

As I mentioned... July and August seem to be more variable up here.  Obviously those are the driest months of the year here as well, but it can be boom or bust in terms of rainy days.    And years with long dry periods in April and May tend to have more rainy days in JJA.    And the opposite is true as well.  

That is a good question! July is quite a bit wetter in your area too. I went on PRISM and compared our locations. Your area looks like it averaged 85.92" in the 1991-2020 period, my location 76.13", so your location averages about 10" more rain a year. This is with 800m resolution, so likely pretty accurate.

Here are how the averages broke down over time, this is nice data since Silver Falls precip data has gotten a bit spotty over the past decade or so. 

                         TIM                         ME

Jan                  11.48"                     10.57"

Feb                  8.04"                      8.14"

Mar                  9.23"                      9.21"

April                 7.89"                      7.94"

May                 5.44"                      5.10"

June                4.64"                      3.28"

July                 1.81"                        0.64"

Aug                 1.92"                       0.61" 

Sept                4.01"                       2.48"

Oct                  8.49"                      5.92"

Nov                 12.41"                     10.12"

Dec                 10.56"                     12.12"

 

Looks like our area is slightly wetter than your area Feb-April (About the same), and wetter in December.

                         

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Might get close to 80 on Wednesday…but we definitely will make it through May without a +80 day. We also didn’t hit 80 last May either…our first +80 was on 4/18. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was surprised at our 30 year average for April. Quite a bit more than the long term average at Silver Falls. 

[Kayla]

35 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I just looked the stats up for that summer at Gallatin Field, and Summer 1993 may have been the most anomalous season ever in Bozeman with respect to high temperatures. The average high that summer was 71.8F which is about 9 degrees below the 30 year average, but also is 4.2 degrees colder than the average high for any other summer recorded.

I did a quick scan through the other seasons and that looks like it's the biggest difference between the record coldest season and the second coldest season.

Yeah 1993 was a very chilly summer. Records only go back to 1943 at Gallatin Field so there were some cooler ones in the early 1900's in the actual city of Bozeman (MSU) but it was still 4th coolest on record.

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Yeah 1993 was a very chilly summer. Records only go back to 1943 at Gallatin Field so there were some cooler ones in the early 1900's in the actual town of Bozeman (MSU) but it was still 4th coolest on record.

Interesting that summer also had the great flood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1993

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny and 57 out here now and the wind is picking up.   Day started with heavy rain as the back edge of the frontal boundary stalled against the mountains... but it has been dry since about 7:30.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Given that stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas"... its quite likely it is going to have a warming effect over the next few years.

Possibly. We don’t know how it will affect the mass circulation/QBO, ENSO, or the annular mode(s). A variety of aerosols/gases were ejected up there, it wasn’t just H2O and SO2.

It may have a net warming effect, but some areas may cool due to changes in atmospheric circulation.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have only had one August - 1968 and one July - 1983, that have had more than the average May rainfall. Only 7 July's s in the 1893-present period according to PRISM have had over 2" of rain, and only 13 August's. A wet July or August, is essentially never going to happen, even one that is as wet as the average May is a once in about 150 year event. 

I think I mentioned before but August 1899 was incredible, Andrew. Essentially was a full on fall month that year. We of course paid for it with one of the torchiest November-Decembers ever.

 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Interesting that summer also had the great flood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1993

Wow yeah. Over 22" of rain from May-July in Sioux Falls, SD is....a lot!

Interestingly that it also says that it was thought to be caused by the Pintatubo eruption.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think I mentioned before but August 1899 was incredible, Andrew. Essentially was a full on fall month that year. We of course paid for it with one of the torchiest November-Decembers ever.

 

Can't even imagine that in today's climate. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Wow yeah. Over 22" of rain from May-July in Sioux Falls, SD is....a lot!

Interestingly that it also says that it was thought to be caused by the Pintatubo eruption.

Also worth noting that was a full 2 years after the eruption.     One year after the eruption... the summer of 1992 was quite lovely out here.     Although I remember the summer of 1992 being fairly cool in Minnesota and the sky had a slight white haze most of the summer even when it was totally clear.   Of course Pinatubo pumped lots of SO2 into the stratosphere while Tonga was just a tiny fraction of Pinatubo in terms of SO2.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was able to compare 1991-2020 Mean Temps for mine and Tim's locations... Pretty similar. We are 1 to 1.3F cooler March-June, but pretty similar the rest of the year. Annually we are 0.4F cooler with an average Mean of 48.9 compared to 49.3 at his location. This is pretty interesting, though it does seem like over the years our location is a bit cooler in the spring. I thought it would be much warmer here in the summer, but it is not. 

                        Tim                 Me

Jan                   38.2              38.5

Feb                   39.7              39.4

Mar                   42.7              41.7

April                  46.6             45.5

May                   53.1              51.8

June                  57.3              56.6

July                   62.7              63.0

Aug                   63.4              63.2

Sept                  58.4              58.4

Oct                    49.8              49.6

Nov                   42.2              41.8

Dec                   37.2               37.6

 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also worth noting that was a full 2 years after the eruption.     One year after the eruption... the summer of 1992 was quite lovely out here.     Although I remember the summer of 1992 being fairly cool in Minnesota and the sky had a slight white haze most of the summer even when it was totally clear.   Of course Pinatubo pumped lots of SO2 into the stratosphere while Tonga was just a tiny fraction of Pinatubo in terms of SO2.

1992 also had a healthy El Niño background state through the summer, which influenced the location of the cold anomalies.

Summer 1992 was one of the coolest in the modern era here. The summer of 1993 was an absolute steam bath. The cooling is never uniform.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was able to compare 1991-2020 Mean Temps for mine and Tim's locations... Pretty similar. We are 1 to 1.3F cooler March-June, but pretty similar the rest of the year. Annually we are 0.4F cooler with an average Mean of 48.9 compared to 49.3 at his location. This is pretty interesting, though it does seem like over the years our location is a bit cooler in the spring. I thought it would be much warmer here in the summer, but it is not. 

                        Tim                 Me

Jan                   38.2              38.5

Feb                   39.7              39.4

Mar                   42.7              41.7

April                  46.6             45.5

May                   53.1              51.8

June                  57.3              56.6

July                   62.7              63.0

Aug                   63.4              63.2

Sept                  58.4              58.4

Oct                    49.8              49.6

Nov                   42.2              41.8

Dec                   37.2               37.6

 

Remember my location is 600 feet lower.    That probably offsets the difference in latitude.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

1992 also had a healthy El Niño background state through the summer, which influenced the location of the cold anomalies.

Summer 1992 was one of the coolest in the modern era here. The summer of 1993 was an absolute steam bath. The cooling is never uniform.

There were some pretty big heatwaves in June and August 1992 here. Until last year, the 105 at SLE in June 1992 was the monthly record. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember my location is 600 feet lower.    That probably offsets the difference in latitude.

Yes, most likely. Probably some other factors too, it still surprised me. Generally I view the Puget Sound region as much more temperate than down here, but that is probably skewed pretty heavily by the last 8-9 years. 

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

1992 also had a healthy El Niño background state through the summer, which influenced the location of the cold anomalies.

Summer 1992 was one of the coolest in the modern era here. The summer of 1993 was an absolute steam bath. The cooling is never uniform.

It snowed 2" in Bozeman on August 24th 1992. Eruption driven again I would think. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It snowed 2" in Bozeman on August 24th 1992. Eruption driven again I would think. 

57/46 here on the 23rd. Brrrrrr

[Kayla]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

57/46 here on the 23rd. Brrrrrr

Yeah 46/32 here on the 23rd. Chilly!

[MossMan]

Wind!!! 

[TT-SEA]

Not a bad ECMWF run... a decent number of summery days in there.     I will take what we can get this year.  

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

1992 also had a healthy El Niño background state through the summer, which influenced the location of the cold anomalies.

Summer 1992 was one of the coolest in the modern era here. The summer of 1993 was an absolute steam bath. The cooling is never uniform.

There are some heat records in Oregon that stand from June 1992, I don't think that was a really cool summer on the west coast. Or maybe it was just a warm June, following an average July/August, I'm not sure. 

Spring and Summer 1993 were cool in the PNW. 

But now that I'm in the eastern US I should probably ask what Kentucky was like thru JJA period in 93. Hoping no 100's, and frequent bouts of storms at least.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There were some pretty big heatwaves in June and August 1992 here. Until last year, the 105 at SLE in June 1992 was the monthly record. 

Yup, thankfully I kept all my notes from last summer. KLMT still has several days in June and August that are 1992 records. Those must have been regional heatwaves.

06/18/2021 - 92/44 (99 in 1985)
06/19/2021 - 94/49 (96 in 2017)
06/20/2021 - 97/47 (93 in 1945)***
06/21/2021 - 96/52 (97 in 1992)
06/22/2021 - 87/56 (100 in 1992)
06/23/2021 - 88/41 (100 in 1992)
06/24/2021 - 91/49 (97 in 1940)
06/25/2021 - 91/44 (98 in 1922)
06/26/2021 - 94/50 (98 in 2015)
06/27/2021 - 101/57 (96 in 2015)***
06/28/2021 - 103/60 (96 in 1937)***
06/29/2021 - 100/54 (97 in 1924)***
06/30/2021 - 94/51 (100 in 1918)
07/01/2021 - 93/55 (98 in 2015)

08/10/2021 - 95/49 (99 in 1996)
08/11/2021 - 98/52 (103 in 1992)
08/12/2021 - 98/53 (101 in 1992)
08/13/2021 - 95/60 (100 in 1920)

100 in August there is harder than it sounds. The entire time I lived there August maxed at 99 or 98.