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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Here we go...Summer is just around the corner!  Who's ready for a cooler and more comfortable start to met Summer?  The models are holding steadfast that we will open up June tracking our 1st (of many) summer time CF's through the central CONUS.  In my opinion, this will become a common theme based on the pattern I see developing as we get farther down the road into Summer.  MCS's/Derecho's/Squall lines??  It does look likely that the C/S Plains will be in the heart of the action of severe wx.  Those of us that live farther N & E don't look warm at all throughout this month.

Check out the model bust wrt to the EPO...It's just not the EPS, but basically the GEFS/GEPS all missed the -EPO to open up JUNE.

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We will be tracking a strong Summer time CF on Memorial Day over the Upper MW and tracking through our western Sub....look at those cooler anomalies....

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0z EPS suggesting another round of heavy rain to develop smack dab in the heartland...KS bullseye...right on June 1st...is this a sign from Nature???  I believe so...the signals I'm seeing this month don't scream Heat like many of us were afraid of, but instead, a very active/wet pattern is poised to develop next month.

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What about Tropical Trouble???  Our 1st system is on the calendar during the June 3rd-6th timeframe out of the GOM.  Attn for those near FL and the NE GOM is becoming heightened.  Let's discuss...

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I always find it pretty neat to see when nature aligns with the calendar.  We welcome met Summer on June 1st with a 500mb pattern like this....I'll see ya in December???  

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The aforementioned pattern leads to this temp anomaly....tracking CF's will be common this month and likely to produce some heavy precip events.  Training storms?  That's what I'm seeing.

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During the opening 10 days of the month, I'm anticipating 2 of these type of events.  The 1st is looking to develop across the C Plains of KS/OK and into parts of N TX as a stalled out CF makes its way through the region during the opening days of June.

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0z EPS suggesting widespread cool temps for the opening 5 days of June....sign me up...

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As the saying goes, "What a Difference a Year Makes".......none more-so, as when you compare the drought monitor maps to last year at this time...by the time this month is over, I fully anticipate the drought regions of C Plains to erode away (exception is for parts of W/C TX.

 

Last year...

20210525_conus_none.png

 

This year...

20220524_conus_none.png

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The worry of sustained Heat for our main growing regions of the U.S. is slowly but surely eroding in the modeling for June....yesterday's JMA run and now the CFSv2 is beginning to "see" it....Bingo!

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202206.gif

 

The Euro Weeklies wanna Torch Texas next month...I'm not really buying it....maybe W TX but not @Andie....I just feel these fronts will settle farther south than what the models are seeing in the 2-4 week range.  They are underplaying the blocking in this pattern IMHO.

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I hope you’re right @Tom.  

Okla/Tx need to maximize their crop and beef production with the cost of food so high.  We don’t need a bad yield to make food prices worse.  
I feel like we are living through the 1930’s drought/depression era in miniature.  
It was far worse then.  I had relatives that worried about whether they’d eat day to day then.  
So we’re fortunate but are facing a similar, milder, pattern.  Opening the pipeline would help.  You can’t force a nation to flip on a dime transportation-wise.  

Our temps will bounce back up to 90, dry, and sunny today. Sliding into summer. 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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June looks to welcome S MI on a chilly note. First few days highs are expected to be in the low 70s, if not a few upper 60s and lows in the 40s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20% chance Hurricane Agatha could survive and reform in the Gulf. 
Could be interesting. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I’m not nearly as optimistic about cool summer weather as some. Large scale subsidence over the West-Central Pacific, if indeed that is the low pass signal, does not bode well for deep troughing as we get deeper into the the warm season. Upper level divergence has had a tendency to fill the W-Hem/IO-IPWP sector this spring, which can be a cool/changeable pattern for the CONUS early on, but becomes hotter/drier with time as seasonal teleconnections evolve. 

Of course there are many variables involved. Not a slam dunk by any means. But I know where I’m placing my bets.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’m not nearly as optimistic about cool summer weather as some. Large scale subsidence over the West-Central Pacific, if indeed that is the low pass signal, does not bode well for deep troughing as we get deeper into the the warm season. Upper level divergence has had a tendency to fill the W-Hem/IO-IPWP sector this spring, which can be a cool/changeable pattern for the CONUS early on, but becomes hotter/drier with time as seasonal teleconnections evolve. 

Of course there are many variables involved. Not a slam dunk by any means. But I know where I’m placing my bets.

Also must factor in things are running about a month late it would seem the last few years or so.

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Another 2011 heat record broken in TX.

 

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Things are Flipping Fast per the latest CFSv2 run for this month...central/eastern CONUS heat pretty much being washed away...TX Heat is also disappearing

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202206.gif

Big IF, but this forecast below showing low heights in the GOM, ridging in the SW and blocking over the Top would suggest to me stalled frontal boundaries over the C/S Plains.

CFSv2.z700.20220528.202206.gif

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Things are Flipping Fast per the latest CFSv2 run for this month...central/eastern CONUS heat pretty much being washed away...TX Heat is also disappearing

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202206.gif

Big IF, but this forecast below showing low heights in the GOM, ridging in the SW and blocking over the Top would suggest to me stalled frontal boundaries over the C/S Plains.

CFSv2.z700.20220528.202206.gif

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This has a wet look for Kansas and Missouri, the heat may not be the only thing that gets washed away lol.

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Anyone noticing Hurricane Agatha.  
wont impact us but it’s crossing Mexico and will likely reform over the Yucatán.  The tropics are very ripe for business.  May be interesting this year.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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What a way to welcome in the month of June with a large pool of cool centered over the central CONUS.  Sign...Me...Up!  Nothing but 70's and sunshine in the grid after Tuesday's boomers.

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CFSv2 500mb trends....our Friendly trends for the Heartland ag belt...nice looking "Horseshoe Hook" over the top of U.S....

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On 5/29/2022 at 10:23 AM, Andie said:

Anyone noticing Hurricane Agatha.  
wont impact us but it’s crossing Mexico and will likely reform over the Yucatán.  The tropics are very ripe for business.  May be interesting this year.  

I`m watching Agatha closely, just made landfall as 105mph category 2 hurricane in southern Mexico.

 

I hope that the heat would not be bad in early June because in the first weekend of June, I'm going to be in Grapevine, Texas.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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South/East continues to roast on the latest EPS (and EPS weeklies). Especially Texas.

Bad news when the hot air *source* is hotter than average.

D0A457C8-E740-42A4-AD70-44B741BC27E3.gif5BAD65F1-9C43-47C0-9E4A-970A8488130F.gif

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Extended GEFS looks similar, though I suspect this is overdone.

CD6F8CF2-7BF6-45B6-83D6-706C2C52BA08.gif

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4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I`m watching Agatha closely, just made landfall as 105mph category 2 hurricane in southern Mexico.

 

I hope that the heat would not be bad in early June because in the first weekend of June, I'm going to be in Grapevine, Texas.

We have been known to have surprising weather in early June.  
Flooding rain all the was to shake and bake.  Anything’s possible. Grapevines a nice place and you should have plenty of choices for food and fun.  
How long will you have to play?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Last night's 0z Euro is telling when the model starts to "see" the blocking....I suspect these CF's to settle south....how far?  Looks like our OK boys may be included in the "cool' pattern...hope @Andie can get a taste....abundant moisture and wet soils certainly will do the trick down in the S Plains to beat down the Heat.  Let's see.  I gotta say, I really feel the bread basket regions are looking very promising for a banner year.  Good for America!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's 0z Euro is telling when the model starts to "see" the blocking....I suspect these CF's to settle south....how far?  Looks like our OK boys may be included in the "cool' pattern...hope @Andie can get a taste....abundant moisture and wet soils certainly will do the trick down in the S Plains to beat down the Heat.  Let's see.  I gotta say, I really feel the bread basket regions are looking very promising for a banner year.  Good for America!

The temps look nice, but this pattern will force much of the rain/storms south of Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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No Tx will see 97 highs for most of next week.  That’s a hot start for us.  
This doesn’t bode well for a mild summer.  We still have late July and August ahead.  🫤

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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14 hours ago, Andie said:

We have been known to have surprising weather in early June.  
Flooding rain all the was to shake and bake.  Anything’s possible. Grapevines a nice place and you should have plenty of choices for food and fun.  
How long will you have to play?

I'll be in Grapevine, TX from Friday to Monday/Tuesday.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I hope its at least an average summer. I only just had my 3rd 90+ yesterday in Ashland for the entire year, I think many places will be finishing off Spring cooler than normal. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Currently 95 here, but dews are only in the mid/upper 60s, so in the end it feels like an average July afternoon in terms of heat indices.

One more day of this, then convective chances increase on Thursday. Hoping for something legit. 🤞 

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3500 SBCAPE this afternoon and fully capped. 😒

A few cells have fired up near Hagerstown but unless they establish a cold pool I doubt they make it here.

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9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I'll be in Grapevine, TX from Friday to Monday/Tuesday.

It’ll be pretty warm and it’s been windy but what’s new around here?  It’s May.
Gave fun. Enjoy the change and grab some real Mexican food. Not that fake stuff. Ask around if folks you’re with don’t know.  🌮🌮🌮 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

That wind is refusing to die down, had gusts closer to 50 last night.

Any comments on how this Spring stands with wind speed?  It seems we’ve had a very windy spring but not sure if it’s a stand out.  
The wind has howled for over a month down here.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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44 minutes ago, Andie said:

Any comments on how this Spring stands with wind speed?  It seems we’ve had a very windy spring but not sure if it’s a stand out.  
The wind has howled for over a month down here.  

Windiest ever, average is 12.2 mph for April. (Oklahoma Mesonet confirmed it)

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I can believe it.  
It’s so unpleasant you don’t want to do any yard work.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Welcome to met Summer!  It sure does feel like time is flying on by.  What a wonderful day to welcome in the month of June as the frontal boundary settles south and ushers in some cooler Canadian air.  I'm all for taking a break from the A/C and opening up the windows for a few days.  The severe threat was a bust around here as the atmosphere never broke the cap.  Oh well, maybe next week there will be some more opportunities.

 

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On this 1st day of Summer, it won't be feeling like it just west of Hudson Bay in the Manitoba provinces.  A major summer time snow storm is about to hit the region.  

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This trough will be impacting our wx pattern down in the mid lats as a battle zone develops and waves of energy come off the PAC into the N Rockies starting this weekend into next week.  I would say that this pattern resembles somewhat of a "Ring of Fire" and poses a threat farther south due to the Vortex sitting just north of the U.S./Canadian border and the blocked up pattern.  It's going to get pretty chilly up north for June standards and even around here later next week.  BN temps appear to be the theme through the extended.  Those of you farther south, it's going to get wet and might be too much of a good thing.

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This is a Summer forecast that a lot of us on here would certainly co-sign.  The media hype of a HOT summer is not sizzling in the CFSv2 department.  Trends are our friends...very wet signal over the MW/GL's and S Plains...keep it going...

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Welcome to meteorological summer 2022.

My wife and I took a road trip up to Ludington yesterday. And it was a great example of the term “cooler by the lake” on the east side of town the temperature on my car thermometer was 80 but on the beach it was just 68 and while there were people on the beach(most got there sweat shirts or jackets) There was no one in the water. But there were people who did walk out on the pier.

 The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 87/70 that low of 70 was the 2nd warmest minimum. At Muskegon the H/L was 85/69 the high was the 4th warmest there and that low of 69 was 2nd warmest. At Lansing the H/L was 90/73 the 90 was the 4th warmest and that 73 was a new record warmest minimum.  The overnight low here at my house and the current temperature was/is 67. I had 0.15” of rain fall overnight. The average H/L for today is 75/54 the record high is 102 set in 1932 and the record low is 36 set in 1993. Last year the H/L was 76/46.

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May 2022 summery. The mean at Grand Rapids was 61.5 that is a departure of +2.3° The high for the month was 87 on 3 days (the 11,12 and 31) the low for the month was 36 on the 8th there were 9 days of 80 or better there were 5 days with highs in the 50’s while the month did end up warmer than average there were more days with means that were below average (17) then days with means above average (14) there was a total of 4.07” of rain fall with the average for May being 4.00”  

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