June 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

Louisville radar has been down for the last couple days. And I think they got rid of radar outage notifications (or made them impossible to find). No say on when its back online.

[CentralNebWeather]

I was right. 4 nights in a row of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I don’t remember that ever occurring around here. 

 

[Phil]

Looks like most of the CONUS will transition from spring to summer next week. My condolences to Texas and the Southern Plains, which will be in the heart of the death ridge.

[Phil]

Also fits in with the inception of the ISM (which is what I consider the actual start of NH summer) and the MJO cycling into phase-1 (filtering for ENSO).

Hard to bet against warmth during the second half of June.

[Iceresistance]

Back home to 1.25 inches of rain, the really nasty Hail and wind missed my house (as always) to the south

 

Nasty Heatwave is coming to the Southern Plains, the Cockroach Death Ridge is wanting to take over most of the CONUS already!   

[Meatyorologist]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also fits in with the inception of the ISM (which is what I consider the actual start of NH summer) and the MJO cycling into phase-1 (filtering for ENSO).

Hard to bet against warmth during the second half of June.

ISM?

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ISM?

Indian Summer Monsoon. Changes the nature of tropical forcing from the eastern hemisphere.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Indian Summer Monsoon. Changes the nature of tropical forcing from the eastern hemisphere.

Ah, I thought it was "intra seasonal" something.

I'm assuming it causes an expansion of the hadley cell and ridging in the subtropics north of the monsoon due to sinking and drying from the convection?

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ah, I thought it was "intra seasonal" something.

I'm assuming it causes an expansion of the hadley cell and ridging in the subtropics north of the monsoon due to sinking and drying from the convection?

Yeah the transition from Siberian High to Monsoonal trough reflects a substantial northward shift in the E-Hem ITCZ/z-cell(s) and is driven by differential heating/topography. This changes the dynamic relationship between the tropics and extratropics emanating from that part of the world. 

[Phil]

The GEFS control run is the epitome of death.

I’m not gonna post it..too graphic.

[snowstorm83]

Looks like one storm going north of Lincoln and another to the south. At least the farms are getting wet. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks like an exciting night for Nebraska. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Getting rocked again. Over 1” already and still raining. We’ll take it. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like an exciting night for Nebraska. 

Another active night. We go from a 6 month drought to storms in the area almost daily. Sounds like another coming Thursday. Some places with baseball sized hail around Hastings. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jaster220]

Unless you're invested in beachfront, boating, or swimming pool how can you not like this slightly cool-ish pattern? Rode 16 miles Sunday pm on the Lakeland Trail around Pinckney (that's just north of Hell for those unaware) and I swear the fresh easterlies made it feel like summertime in NMI. The Kid Rocks..

[Clinton]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued, I will likely sleep through these, maybe they'll be noisy enough to wake me up.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Manhattan should be getting hit hard according to the radar.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

 

Getting rocked again. Over 1” already and still raining. We’ll take it. 

When it rains it pours!  Man, your cashing in Bigly in this pattern.  Thank goodness the Heavens have opened up for your region.  I’d like to experience a storm like that around here.  We just haven’t had the set up yet.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

When it rains it pours!  Man, your cashing in Bigly in this pattern.  Thank goodness the Heavens have opened up for your region.  I’d like to experience a storm like that around here.  We just haven’t had the set up yet.

Still waiting here in Seattle...

[Tom]

Big Battle shaping up between the GEFS vs EPS for Week 2...knowing what I see happening up in the Strat, along with the key blocking patterns S of Greenland and up in Canada, this translates into a cooler pattern out E & N.

0z GEFS...trends...let's see if this holds....

 

 

Iirc, @Clinton I think the pattern setting up the following weekend (17th-19th) resembles quite nicely what has happened frequently in and around Greenland.  It def illustrates what has been a common theme up there.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

More storms Thursday. 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I got a nice .56 overnite, slow and steady.  .85 so far in june and in past 14 days Ive recorded 2.67. Nothing excessive  at all, not much runoff. But crops, lawns and garden all look great!

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/55. For the day 57% of sunshine was reported 0.09” of rain fall was reported. For today the average H/L is 78/56 The record high was 97 in 1933 and the record low of 38 was recorded in 1998 and 1949. Last year the H/L was 87/65. The overnight low here at my house was 50 and at the current time it is 54.

 

[westMJim]

We now have 7 days of June 2022 in the record books. The mean at Grand Rapids for the 1^st 7 days is 63.9 that is a departure of -1.8. At Holland the mean is 61.7 that is a departure of -3.1 at Muskegon the mean is 61.8 for a departure on 2.5. At Lansing the mean there is 66.0 and they have a departure of +1.1. So far Lansing is the only major reporting station in southern lower Michigan that is above average for the month of June. As Detroit, Flint and Saginaw are all below average so far.

 

[Jayhawker85]

confirmed tornado last night in kc metro area. Landed about 5 minutes north of my job in Overland Park. I’m going to drive by it in a few to see how bad it is 

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

confirmed tornado last night in kc metro area. Landed about 5 minutes north of my job in Overland Park. I’m going to drive by it in a few to see how bad it is 

In Gary's blog this morning he showed how it all came together with the cell developing ahead of the line of storms and then merging with the line.  Sounds like it bounced up and down and uprooted some trees and alot of roof damage.  I only got .40 and have gotten .7 inches for the week.  Tomorrow night could produce a similar setup!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More storms Thursday. 

 

A severe weather watch in 5 days out of 6 has to be a record for your area.

[jcwxguy]

Another swing and a miss for mby yesterday

[hawkstwelve]

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that after the trough kicks through the central CONUS next Tues/Wed a ridge sets up for some more summer-like weather with highs in the 80s. 

After the past week or so of cooler than normal temperatures and fairly cloudy skies, I'm ready for some sun and warmth!

[Hawkeye]

A decent red cell was moving into the Cedar Rapids area just now, but it quickly stratiformed out to a gentle high-end moderate rain when it arrived.  All we are allowed to get this year is gentle rain with little or no thunder.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

In Gary's blog this morning he showed how it all came together with the cell developing ahead of the line of storms and then merging with the line.  Sounds like it bounced up and down and uprooted some trees and alot of roof damage.  I only got .40 and have gotten .7 inches for the week.  Tomorrow night could produce a similar setup!

I drove by a couple minutes ago and there is a lot of tree damage, power lines down, and some structural damages to buildings. 
 

i just spoke to a guy who runs a emergency response team and he said they have been getting calls nonstop since 130 this morning about damage to homes and businesses 

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

Another swing and a miss for mby yesterday

Steerike 1

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

A severe weather watch in 5 days out of 6 has to be a record for your area.

I’m sure of it.

[Hawkeye]

I received 0.24" this morning.

[Iceresistance]

Getting Drenched right now.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Big Battle shaping up between the GEFS vs EPS for Week 2...knowing what I see happening up in the Strat, along with the key blocking patterns S of Greenland and up in Canada, this translates into a cooler pattern out E & N.

0z GEFS...trends...let's see if this holds....

 

 

Iirc, @Clinton I think the pattern setting up the following weekend (17th-19th) resembles quite nicely what has happened frequently in and around Greenland.  It def illustrates what has been a common theme up there.

 

Suspect much of the country will be very warm through the second half of June. The GFS/GEFS often has convective feedback problems over Central America during P1 MJO, producing spurious hurricanes and mishandling the longwave middle latitude pattern across the W-Hem (especially the NPAC).

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 64 and some light mist early this morning (not full on fog though). Going back and forth between sun and overcast and sun breaking out again. Low 80's now.

[Clinton]

Preliminary report on the tornado that hit last night in the KC area.

Preliminary results** Johnson County KS and Jackson County MO EF1 Tornado 100mph max winds Track was 14 miles long 125 yard maximum width These results are preliminary, we will have more information by this afternoon

[Timmy Supercell]

This was almost my 3rd tornado watch of the year... Just off by a county. A short 15 minutes drive out of Ashland (into Greenup) will take you into Tornado Watch #333. lol

[Niko]

Alotta hvy rain moving in soon for my area. Still running bn forthe year though, but not by much.

 

Btw: Temps dipped into the 40s once again last nite. This month has had some chilly evenings thus far.

[Clinton]

A second confirmed tornado on the NE side of KC.

Preliminary damage report from NE Jackson County near Buckner, MO. 

EF2 tornado
115 mph max wind
9 mile path length
200 yard max wind

[Phil]

Thunderstorm has popped up just to my west this afternoon. Looks like it’ll miss me, but it’s pretty dark out now with decent thunder.

[Iceresistance]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Getting Drenched right now.

Ended with .75 inches of rain, over 9 inches in the past 2 months!

[snowstorm83]

Already seeing 98 in the forecast for Monday 

[Andie]

I’ll be coping with 98-101 the next week. 
 

if you want me I’ll be camping in the ice chest at 76 gas station!
They’re having cable installed.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks to really make a run at 100 here on Monday. We normally only average maybe 1-2 days per summer reaching 100.

NBM probabilistic guidance gives
Lincoln and Omaha a greater than 60 percent chance to reach 100
degrees Monday afternoon.

[Timmy Supercell]

Interesting evening... A tree fell on a sidestreet that crosses into Hilton Ave. It wasn't wind or lightning, probably just gave out after a quick thundershower came thru (7:30pm?). A minute after the rain stops, I hear a loud THUD and one of our power poles bent back knocking out power to several homes including ours. lol

We do have some very unkept treelined streets here and I shudder to think what other trees come down when Ashland gets their first 60+ wind event of 2022. We'll get one this summer sometime. 

Power is back on now. Service vehicles have been here for hours, and now a chainsaw cutting up the downed tree.

[Timmy Supercell]

There continued to be storms after that power loss. Not anything frequent or real strong but looked like a minor shelf cloud was going through town right after sunset. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Interesting evening... A tree fell on a sidestreet that crosses into Hilton Ave. It wasn't wind or lightning, probably just gave out after a quick thundershower came thru (7:30pm?). A minute after the rain stops, I hear a loud THUD and one of our power poles bent back knocking out power to several homes including ours. lol

We do have some very unkept treelined streets here and I shudder to think what other trees come down when Ashland gets their first 60+ wind event of 2022. We'll get one this summer sometime. 

Power is back on now. Service vehicles have been here for hours, and now a chainsaw cutting up the downed tree.

Yikes, that’s a bad sign. First big blow of the summer is going to knock your power out for a week.  

In winter 2010 I noticed trees were dropping large branches randomly or during snowfalls. Turns out that was a shot across the bow..that subsequent summer was a nightmare for power outages.