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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


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2 hours ago, Andie said:

Just like us….. but in mid/late July.😢

  
What is forcing this heat early and is this our summer?  Or will it back off? 

Combination of La Niña and regional forcings/standing waves.

And no, unfortunately it will not back off. The Midwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes have a “break” in the heat coming up with more troughy/variable weather until mid-July, but Texas/Deep South is probably screwed.

Late July/August everyone probably joins the heat party. 😕

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We came close, but no cigar...ORD hit 99F around 3:00pm but MDW hit 101F!  Crazy how many times that airport has hit 100F already this year (3x).  UHI in full effect.  I wonder where they have the sensors located.

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While I was combing through some recent data, I'm seeing a good and clear signal for a major trough over the eastern CONUS by mid July.  My target dates of July 14th-20th suggest a deep trough and one that can penetrate into the deep south.  This could very well have some legs for a sustained period of cooler and wetter/active wx.  I need to see a few more days of data to be more certain how long this predicted troughy pattern can last.  I don't see any long periods of HOT weather for most of us on here next month, except for the lone state of Texas (sadly).

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 95/68 that was the 2nd hottest reading for any June 21 at Grand Rapids. Once again there was no rain fall and there was 96% of possible sunshine. At Lansing their high of 98 tied 1988 for the record for the date. The overnight low here at my house was 71 at the airport the low so far was 74. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high of 97 was set in 1894 and 1923 the record low of 39 was set in 1922. 

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Storms last night missed my place again.  I'm watching an area of rain moving west out of Kansas hoping it will make it here, it's getting very dry.  Clouds today will keep temps below 90 today which will be nice. 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Combination of La Niña and regional forcings/standing waves.

And no, unfortunately it will not back off. The Midwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes have a “break” in the heat coming up with more troughy/variable weather until mid-July, but Texas/Deep South is probably screwed.

Late July/August everyone probably joins the heat party. 😕

Oddly enough, that sounds more normal.   We often get a break in the 100’s/high 90’s sometime in summer. 
Texans use it to catch up on outdoor activities or some fun. 
It’s worth the heat to live here.  God knows some issues are challenging us but the lifestyle and attitudes of us Native-born Texans is worth the heat. 
There’s always vacations in Colorado. 😃

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Starting to look like the death ridge will resist the pattern change to some extent.

Bad omen for later in July and August when tropical forcing becomes favorable for a hot pattern again. 😬

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High was 92°F this afternoon, pretty muggy too.

Unfortunately the convection has totally screwed me so far, keeps diving west towards the terrain. Looks like I’ll have to start watering the yard soon. Sucks.

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With the hot weather recently, I've of course had snow and winter on my mind cause... well, cause why not. 

I took a look at total winter season snowfall in the Sioux Falls area since 2015...

2014/2015: 31.9

2015/2016: 68.5

2016/2017: 42.9

2017/2018: 70.4

2018/2019: 52.4

2019/2020: 39.4

2020/2021: 40.0

Total average over the course of those years: 49.35

Now compare that with the total snowfall received during the 2021/2022 season: 19.9

Pretty insane that last year's total snow was an almost 60% drop from the average of the proceeding seven years. Hopefully this upcoming 3rd year Nina can balance out the scale and drop some serious snow on us. Would be perfect timing for our first full winter here!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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4 days in the 100’s.  
Then 4 days in the 94’s
Then back to 100’s.  
 

Forecasting is easy in Texas in Summer!!  
Hot, followed by hot, with a threat of hotter. 😎👍

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

With the hot weather recently, I've of course had snow and winter on my mind cause... well, cause why not. 

I took a look at total winter season snowfall in the Sioux Falls area since 2015...

2014/2015: 31.9

2015/2016: 68.5

2016/2017: 42.9

2017/2018: 70.4

2018/2019: 52.4

2019/2020: 39.4

2020/2021: 40.0

Total average over the course of those years: 49.35

Now compare that with the total snowfall received during the 2021/2022 season: 19.9

Pretty insane that last year's total snow was an almost 60% drop from the average of the proceeding seven years. Hopefully this upcoming 3rd year Nina can balance out the scale and drop some serious snow on us. Would be perfect timing for our first full winter here!

Last winter was terrible for our areas, probably a good thing you missed it. Though at least Sioux Falls got a 10" dumping in December (which melted a few days later). 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Now compare that with the total snowfall received during the 2021/2022 season: 19.9

Amazing how poor the snow season was to the south of me. In Fargo, it seemed absolutely endless. Made me almost happy I'll be taking a winter off in California.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Been a toasty day. A line of severe warned storms came through the region but the middle of it broke apart (where I am). But I have been hearing rumblings from the east last hour or so.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 23
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Been a toasty day. A line of severe warned storms came through the region but the middle of it broke apart (where I am). But I have been hearing rumblings from the east last hour or so.

I must be getting some anvil lightning. The storms are easily 30+ miles from here now and there are flashes close enough to produce some decent sound. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 23
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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32 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I must be getting some anvil lightning. The storms are easily 30+ miles from here now and there are flashes close enough to produce some decent sound. 

Getting a pity thunderstorm here now. The big stuff missed us this afternoon. 

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow, did you get nailed last night?  Looking at the radar last night around 6:00pm I saw the line of storms firing up to your West and I was hoping you would score a good storm.

Tom, unbelievably  i only got 6/100. Good rain almost encircled me.  Getting eerily similar  to summer of 2017 when we had a localized dome that resulted  in  wapello  and davis counties being  declared drought disasters.  Im at 1.31 in June.   Most grass crispy brown, corn and soybeans showing stress. Did get a good rainbow tues pm

20220621_202420.jpg

Screenshot_20220621-211521_RadarScope.jpg

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9 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Amazing how poor the snow season was to the south of me. In Fargo, it seemed absolutely endless. Made me almost happy I'll be taking a winter off in California.

You'll be moving to So Cal I assume?  That'll be quite the change...watch, you'll be a magnet and attract the southern jet next Autumn/Winter!

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6 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Tom, unbelievably  i only got 6/100. Good rain almost encircled me.  Getting eerily similar  to summer of 2017 when we had a localized dome that resulted  in  wapello  and davis counties being  declared drought disasters.  Im at 1.31 in June.   Most grass crispy brown, corn and soybeans showing stress. Did get a good rainbow tues pm

20220621_202420.jpg

Screenshot_20220621-211521_RadarScope.jpg

Fortunately, there are more opportunities showing up and I'm seeing a good pattern for active wx as we close out JUN and open July.  My gut feeling is you'll catch up in the precip dept.

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You gotta like the consistency between the UKIE/EURO through this weekend...things are getting real dry here and I noticed the ground is rock solid.  Had to water the plants once in the am and pm for the 1st time all season.

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Boy, hasn't KS been a magnet of late....what a difference a year makes, ay?  I'm encouraged this will translate to a continuation of the same pattern through the rest of this Summer.  I also believe that we will see a good crop for the majority of the heartland.

Last 30 days...

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@Philis going to enjoy an ideal temp pattern through the extended... @Madtownmay have to start up a fire for the 4th of July weekend....

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As mentioned above, I see more of the "same" as we flip into the month of July.  Both the GEFS/EPS are suggesting a rather active look for the Big holiday weekend across the central Plains/MW.  Not only will we see local Fireworks on display but nature will showcase some of her Atmospheric Fireworks!

image.gif

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

You'll be moving to So Cal I assume?  That'll be quite the change...watch, you'll be a magnet and attract the southern jet next Autumn/Winter!

I've been in SoCal for a couple months. Only difference is that this time, it's intended to be 100% temporary. Next state I move to after this (hopefully late 2023) will be permanent. It'll also be back in this subforum's territory.

We had some monsoonal moisture here yesterday, gave me some rumbles of thunder and some heavy rain. Nice change of pace from the constant sun now that marine layer season is over.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. Lots of deep, blue skies, no humidity, temps in the mid 50s and you can hear that light breeze from the leaves on the trees from time to time. Just stunning!

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Yesterday was another very sunny day with 100% of possible sunshine. It is now becoming rather dry as so far this June has only had 0.85” of rain fall and that is well below the average of 2.85” by this date. Muskegon, Holland and Lansing have had more rain fall but they too are below average for June. And the thunderstorm drought also continues at Grand Rapids. The official H/L yesterday was 86/67 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low in MBY was 57.  The official overnight low at GRR was 58. At the current time it is clear and 62 here. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high is 98 set in 1923 and the record low is 38 set in 1918. Last year the H/L was a cool 72/48 and there was 0.09” of rain fall. The rest of this week and the start of next week look to be dry with typical late June early July temperatures 

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2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I've been in SoCal for a couple months. Only difference is that this time, it's intended to be 100% temporary. Next state I move to after this (hopefully late 2023) will be permanent. It'll also be back in this subforum's territory.

We had some monsoonal moisture here yesterday, gave me some rumbles of thunder and some heavy rain. Nice change of pace from the constant sun now that marine layer season is over.

Enjoy the beauty of So Cal and the ocean!  Regarding the Monsoon, I wrote a message to my buddy who lives in Calabasas about getting some moisture and he got awaken by rumbles of thunder around 5:00am yesterday.  The entire SW seems to be getting in on the action which is ideal in many aspects.  Hope it continues for ya’ll!

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Not much to report in Texas, however we’ll see some rain (.10-.25”) Mon-Tues…Big Woo!

Prior to that we’ll see increasing temps 100-104.  Wednesday we return to triple digits.  That summer High is just sitting right over Oklahoma.  


This isn’t any fun and I don’t see any changes ahead.  We’d be happy to stay in the 90’s however……

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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104 tomorrow and Saturday.  
It just keeps getting worse. 😢

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It was a "Terrific Thursday" with a high of 85F and DP's in the 50's all day with wisps of high cirrus clouds.  A top notch summer day.  The lake breeze pushed inland later in the evening and temps right now are at a very comfy 63F.  Perfect opportunity to open up the windows and let some cool refreshing air into the house.

 

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N KS getting hit pretty good with training storms all night long and appears to be heading towards the west side of the KC metro area.  Stalled warm frontal boundary working its magic and suspect this will be the pattern setting up right before the Big 4th of July weekend right around this region.

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@Andie...you may get your first chance of a tropical storm coming out of the GOM right after the 4th of July...pattern looks ripe for tropical development in the Gulf.

image.gif

 

Before then, however, the repeating pattern is showing increasing likelihood that the same areas will get hit with storms over the 4th of July weekend.  Both EPS/GEFS are on board...

image.gif

 

image.gif

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The Monsoon made its way into the Valley of the Sun in the quintessential Monsoonal flow out of the South.  I looked at the radar yesterday afternoon and the PHX metro area was under a Special Wx Statement for winds up to 55mph and very heavy rain.  This wave then made its way from S to N across the valley.  What a beautiful sight to see.  

Edit: You can see the outflow boundary that formed out ahead of the storms and kicked up a lot of dust across the valley.

 

image.gif

 

The models suggest this weekend to be a repeat performance...but this time the flow will be coming out of the mountains.  I always enjoy watching the storms bubble up in the mountains and makes me want to fly there right now and watch this happen.  I will say, I'm a bit jealous and would like to be there to see these Monsoon storms.  Only a wx enthusiast like myself would say such a thing.  There's something about the beauty of nature out there during the Monsoon season that brings a different smell in the air and gorgeous cloud formations.

 

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

That late July return to heat ridging is starting to show up on the EPS weeklies.

183A1C7C-ADE4-4B94-A344-0E1DCE6BA85F.gif

I love it when there is a LR battle shaping up with the EPS and JMA....

The Week 3-4 JMA Weeklies do show the cooler/wetter SE coast but not nearly as much warmth in the central/northern U.S.  The only Hot Spot is where the Ridge will rear its ugly head in the TX/OK region.

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.20 AM.png

 

Tropical Trouble all along the eastern Gulf and SE coast....all awhile, the Monsoonal Moisture inundates the 4 corners and eventually works its way into California!

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.29 AM.png

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We’re starting out at 83* at 5:30 A M.  Heading for 104 !
 

83*………😎🔥

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6/24/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/58 there was no rain fall and there was once again 100% of possible sunshine. There has been little rain 0.85” so far at Grand Rapids the average as of this date is 3.04” Since 1890 there have only been 4 years when June had less than one inch of total rain fall. The lack of rain and the sunny and very warm days have made the grass in the area turn brown. The overnight low in MBY was 58 and at this time it is still 58. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 96 was set in 1901 and again in 2009 (it should be noted that 2009 had the coolest July on record at Grand Rapids) the record low of 41 was set in 1961. The next week looks to stary mostly dry (there is a chance of rain on Saturday night) and it looks to stay very warm to at times hot.

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie...you may get your first chance of a tropical storm coming out of the GOM right after the 4th of July...pattern looks ripe for tropical development in the Gulf.

image.gif

 

Before then, however, the repeating pattern is showing increasing likelihood that the same areas will get hit with storms over the 4th of July weekend.  Both EPS/GEFS are on board...

image.gif

 

image.gif

I can't buy a drop of rain, it's been dry since the small rains at the beginning of the month.  The grass is turning brown and I haven't mowed in almost 2 weeks.  The last couple of days have been nice with the lower tempretures but yet frustrating as storms move across Kansas and then go poof right as they make it to my county.  July 4th weekend looks like my best chance to end the dry spell unless I can steal some this morning.  @Jayhawker85and @mlgamerhave to about be drowning over the last week or so, congrats on the rains guys!

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edit: ( Clinton… we were posting the same thoughts at the same time! )
 

We could see our first tropical depression with the possibility of entering the Gulf of Mx rolling westward between Cuba and S America next week! 
 

TDs are the best hope Texas has of busting up the d@$&# High over Tx & Okla.  
Can’t wait to see those clouds roll up from Hill Country.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 minutes ago, Andie said:

edit: ( Clinton… we were posting the same thoughts at the same time! )
 

We could see our first tropical depression with the possibility of entering the Gulf of Mx rolling westward between Cuba and S America next week! 
 

TDs are the best hope Texas has of busting up the d@$&# High over Tx & Okla.  
Can’t wait to see those clouds roll up from Hill Country.  

Sometimes I get some good moisture when tropical systems hit south Texas, lets hope it doesn't come to that.  A strong slow moving front would be perfect and we both could see one July 4th weekend,

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