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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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104 tomorrow and Saturday.  
It just keeps getting worse. 😢

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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That late July return to heat ridging is starting to show up on the EPS weeklies.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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It was a "Terrific Thursday" with a high of 85F and DP's in the 50's all day with wisps of high cirrus clouds.  A top notch summer day.  The lake breeze pushed inland later in the evening and temps right now are at a very comfy 63F.  Perfect opportunity to open up the windows and let some cool refreshing air into the house.

 

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N KS getting hit pretty good with training storms all night long and appears to be heading towards the west side of the KC metro area.  Stalled warm frontal boundary working its magic and suspect this will be the pattern setting up right before the Big 4th of July weekend right around this region.

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@Andie...you may get your first chance of a tropical storm coming out of the GOM right after the 4th of July...pattern looks ripe for tropical development in the Gulf.

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Before then, however, the repeating pattern is showing increasing likelihood that the same areas will get hit with storms over the 4th of July weekend.  Both EPS/GEFS are on board...

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The Monsoon made its way into the Valley of the Sun in the quintessential Monsoonal flow out of the South.  I looked at the radar yesterday afternoon and the PHX metro area was under a Special Wx Statement for winds up to 55mph and very heavy rain.  This wave then made its way from S to N across the valley.  What a beautiful sight to see.  

Edit: You can see the outflow boundary that formed out ahead of the storms and kicked up a lot of dust across the valley.

 

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The models suggest this weekend to be a repeat performance...but this time the flow will be coming out of the mountains.  I always enjoy watching the storms bubble up in the mountains and makes me want to fly there right now and watch this happen.  I will say, I'm a bit jealous and would like to be there to see these Monsoon storms.  Only a wx enthusiast like myself would say such a thing.  There's something about the beauty of nature out there during the Monsoon season that brings a different smell in the air and gorgeous cloud formations.

 

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

That late July return to heat ridging is starting to show up on the EPS weeklies.

183A1C7C-ADE4-4B94-A344-0E1DCE6BA85F.gif

I love it when there is a LR battle shaping up with the EPS and JMA....

The Week 3-4 JMA Weeklies do show the cooler/wetter SE coast but not nearly as much warmth in the central/northern U.S.  The only Hot Spot is where the Ridge will rear its ugly head in the TX/OK region.

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.20 AM.png

 

Tropical Trouble all along the eastern Gulf and SE coast....all awhile, the Monsoonal Moisture inundates the 4 corners and eventually works its way into California!

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.29 AM.png

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We’re starting out at 83* at 5:30 A M.  Heading for 104 !
 

83*………😎🔥

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6/24/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/58 there was no rain fall and there was once again 100% of possible sunshine. There has been little rain 0.85” so far at Grand Rapids the average as of this date is 3.04” Since 1890 there have only been 4 years when June had less than one inch of total rain fall. The lack of rain and the sunny and very warm days have made the grass in the area turn brown. The overnight low in MBY was 58 and at this time it is still 58. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 96 was set in 1901 and again in 2009 (it should be noted that 2009 had the coolest July on record at Grand Rapids) the record low of 41 was set in 1961. The next week looks to stary mostly dry (there is a chance of rain on Saturday night) and it looks to stay very warm to at times hot.

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie...you may get your first chance of a tropical storm coming out of the GOM right after the 4th of July...pattern looks ripe for tropical development in the Gulf.

image.gif

 

Before then, however, the repeating pattern is showing increasing likelihood that the same areas will get hit with storms over the 4th of July weekend.  Both EPS/GEFS are on board...

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I can't buy a drop of rain, it's been dry since the small rains at the beginning of the month.  The grass is turning brown and I haven't mowed in almost 2 weeks.  The last couple of days have been nice with the lower tempretures but yet frustrating as storms move across Kansas and then go poof right as they make it to my county.  July 4th weekend looks like my best chance to end the dry spell unless I can steal some this morning.  @Jayhawker85and @mlgamerhave to about be drowning over the last week or so, congrats on the rains guys!

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edit: ( Clinton… we were posting the same thoughts at the same time! )
 

We could see our first tropical depression with the possibility of entering the Gulf of Mx rolling westward between Cuba and S America next week! 
 

TDs are the best hope Texas has of busting up the d@$&# High over Tx & Okla.  
Can’t wait to see those clouds roll up from Hill Country.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 minutes ago, Andie said:

edit: ( Clinton… we were posting the same thoughts at the same time! )
 

We could see our first tropical depression with the possibility of entering the Gulf of Mx rolling westward between Cuba and S America next week! 
 

TDs are the best hope Texas has of busting up the d@$&# High over Tx & Okla.  
Can’t wait to see those clouds roll up from Hill Country.  

Sometimes I get some good moisture when tropical systems hit south Texas, lets hope it doesn't come to that.  A strong slow moving front would be perfect and we both could see one July 4th weekend,

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We are still in the upper 70s thanks to the first clouds in several days.  The clouds are finally beginning to thin out so we should surge into the 80s for a few hours.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hit 104* 🤬

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

I love it when there is a LR battle shaping up with the EPS and JMA....

The Week 3-4 JMA Weeklies do show the cooler/wetter SE coast but not nearly as much warmth in the central/northern U.S.  The only Hot Spot is where the Ridge will rear its ugly head in the TX/OK region.

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.20 AM.png

 

Tropical Trouble all along the eastern Gulf and SE coast....all awhile, the Monsoonal Moisture inundates the 4 corners and eventually works its way into California!

Screen Shot 2022-06-24 at 5.04.29 AM.png

Will be interesting to follow!

I wish there was a good resource for JMA hovmoller plots for VP200. In the case of the EPS the forcing is coming from the tropics (MJO/GWO reinforcing low pass/La Niña background state).

Whether or not it’s correct obviously still TBD. But this does follow the ENSO/low pass filtered analog pool, so there is precedent (see 2011 and 2012).

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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9 hours ago, luminen said:

What's with the positive anomalies off the coast of Maine though? 

SSTs and ocean/atmosphere feedbacks under a stronger than average Gulf Stream.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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I hope the HRRR is onto something.  The last several runs have become increasingly bullish for rain here late tonight.  The latest run has a 2+" swath through the area.  The latest 3k NAM is missing the first heavy band after midnight.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Silver lining -  High Monday 90*.  
Practically a cold front.  
And a few days under 100.  
 

Weekend will still see 103 and 101 respectively.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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All afternoon and evening the HRRR was showing a band of strong storms and heavy rain popping southwest of Cedar Rapids after 11pm.  It turned out to be very accurate.  A line of storms is moving into CR now.  The strange thing is, now that the storms are actually blowing up, the latest HRRR runs are showing nothing.  🤦‍♂️ 🤣

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

All afternoon and evening the HRRR was showing a band of strong storms and heavy rain popping southwest of Cedar Rapids after 11pm.  It turned out to be very accurate.  A line of storms is moving into CR now.  The strange thing is, now that the storms are actually blowing up, the latest HRRR runs are showing nothing.  🤦‍♂️ 🤣

These storms just keep back building for your area...there should be some healthy totals outta this event...

 

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Once again, storms are firing up across the PHX valley...it's really neat to see the outflow boundaries on radar which bubble up storms...

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This is about as humid as it gets during the summer out there...

Screen Shot 2022-06-25 at 3.13.09 AM.png

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It has been storming for an hour, and there has been lightning for four hours.  The real heavy rain, however, has passed just south of Cedar Rapids.  A band of 3-4" has fallen down there.  Stations near me are showing only an inch or a bit less.  The far northeast side of CR has only received a quarter inch.  I'm hoping a couple more bands can form back to the west and move through before it moves out.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As I flip through the models this morning, I "saw" something intriguing and is likely an example of the blocking pattern that is a result of the wx pattern that will continue throughout this summer.  Check this out...remember when we opened up Met Summer on June 1st with a major Summer time snowstorm just west of Hudson Bay???  Well, could it happen again???  It will not to the extreme as it did a month ago but it's almost an exact snapshot of what transpired back then. #HighLatBlocking

All the models are showing a powerful storm to develop from 2 pieces (one from the Archipelago of Canada and one piece heading east from B.C.) that will phase together right around Hudson Bay!  Just fascinating!  The result may be some more rare mid-summer Snow...oh wait, wasn't it supposed to stop snowing and be a thing of the past?  

 

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Let is Snow???

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Oh Greenland...#buildtheglacier

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Parts of W KS have been left out for the most part until next weekend...the pattern looks ripe for a heavy precip event during the Holiday weekend.  The 0z Euro/EPS look rather nice for most of the central ag belt regions.

 

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6/25/2022

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 89/56 there was no rain and there was 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both in MBY and at the NWS office was 63. At the current time there is some high clouds and a temperature of 73. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 82/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1988 and the record low of 41 was set in 1986. After a very warm day today there is a chance of some rain overnight but just a 50% chance. The there should be several days of near average temperatures but it still looks to be dry.

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2.38" in my gauge this morning 😀, and that is one of the lowest totals in the Cedar Rapids area.  A band of 3-4" initially fell just south of CR, then another stationary band formed on the north and east side that dumped 3-4".  A town just southeast of CR (Solon) got 5.40".

In addition to the heavy rain, there was lightning visible, at least in the distance, for seven straight hours.  The final cell that moved through this morning was the strongest and had constant lightning with loud cracks of thunder.  We haven't had thunder and lightning like that in a long time.  I really love nights/mornings like this.  It's the first time this year we've had anything like it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

2.38" in my gauge this morning 😀, and that is one of the lowest totals in the Cedar Rapids area.  A band of 3-4" initially fell just south of CR, then another stationary band formed on the north and east side that dumped 3-4".  A town just southeast of CR got 5.40".

In addition to the heavy rain, there was lightning visible, at least in the distance, for seven straight hours.  The final cell that moved through this morning was the strongest and had constant lightning with loud cracks of thunder.  We haven't had thunder and lightning like that in a long time.  I really love nights/mornings like this.  It's the first time this year we've had anything like it.

Which town got 5.4”? 

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Which town got 5.4”? 

Radar shows the heaviest rain fell in northeastern Johnson county in the Solon area.  Two personal stations in Solon both show 5.43".  There's a 4.7" report just southeast of Solon.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Radar shows the heaviest rain fell in northeastern Johnson county in the Solon area.  Two personal stations in Solon both show 5.43".  There's a 4.7" report just southeast of Solon.

What site do you use to find these? I am only seeing a small number of reports on the NWS local storm reports page. 

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7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

What site do you use to find these? I am only seeing a small number of reports on the NWS local storm reports page. 

I use Weather Underground.  Click the box for "weather stations" and then "precipitation".  For some reason you can't click on individual stations anymore, but the totals are still shown on the map.

Weather Underground

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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JKL radar down, that's the one I like to use most for eastern KY. I suppose ILN or RLX somewhat covers part of my general region but I less frequently use them. 

I don't know when it goes back online. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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