December Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

I say, build up that snow pack in the northern Plains first because it will benefit all of us in the long run.  Let nature lay down it's reflective snow pack and build the cold air dome.

[bud2380]

GFS just sits and spins in Minnesota at hour 210 and really hammers areas around Duluth.  Looks to be dragging in some actual cold air too. 

[Tom]

00z GFS on the second stronger system...

 

 

[Guest Snowball]

106 inches of snow at Mt rainier with 70-80 mph winds would be a dream!! Geos, u ruined me!!

[Tom]

The beginnings of a 30-day period "mini" snowmagedon for the central CONUS????  Would be a good start.

 

[Geos]

I say, build up that snow pack in the northern Plains first because it will benefit all of us in the long run.  Let nature lay down it's reflective snow pack and build the cold air dome.

 

This x10

[Geos]

106 inches of snow at Mt rainier with 70-80 mph winds would be a dream!! Geos, u ruined me!!

 

You wouldn't be able to see much. It will be a non-stop or nearly non stop whiteout on the mountain above the snowline for the next 36 hours for sure.

[NEJeremy]

Lol

Lol

[gosaints]

Oh the model mayhem will make for some fun reads. Judging by 2m temps the CMC will add too it

[gosaints]

Hard cut after hard cut on the GFS

[NEJeremy]

[Money]

Can someone please ban maxium and GDR?

[Maxim]

Lol

Will be waiting with bated breath for those 12-24" amounts between now and Dec 17.

[Geos]

A lot more cold air to tap into 10 days from now.

 

 

Some mighty cold Siberian air gets into Alaska and the Yukon at the end of the run.

[OKwx2k4]

Good stuff folks. Glad to see that snow line keep heading south on the Euro Ensembles.

[OKwx2k4]

If the CFS is right I will exceed my seasonal snowfall by January 10th. Hahaha.

[Geos]

Time for a thread for the weekend system.

 

Kind of drizzly and foggy again tonight.

[OKwx2k4]

Can someone please ban maxium and GDR?

Apparently there are no mods here.

[Tom]

Time for a thread for the weekend system.

 

Kind of drizzly and foggy again tonight.

00z Euro now spinning up a tightly wound up system Sunday night nearby...nice snow storm for NE/IA...so we have the GFS/EURO agreeing on a potential potent snow storm for late this weekend.

[clintbeed1993]

EURO looks like a really nice storm.  Do you have snowfall maps Tom?

[Maxim]

Apparently there are no mods here.

Because I don't agree with what the euro ensembles are showing, I deserve to get banned? 

[Tom]

00z Euro spins up a powerful western lakes cutter...down to a 978mb SLP near GRB...might have to start a thread if this storm continues to show up tomorrow.  Models def trending towards the Euro Ensemble snowfall maps. No mixing issues to the NW of the SLP and plenty cold to support snow in the defo band.

[Geos]

Because I don't agree with what the euro ensembles are showing, I deserve to get banned? 

 

No - you're entitled to your opinion and everything. Don't make a deal out of it though. Put a reason down why you disagree with it, instead of like just putting lol etc. Otherwise it comes across annoying-like.

The models show what they show. It's computers spitting out data. In end the weather will do what it wants to do. Regardless of who says what.

[winterfreak]

Congrats to Neb and Wisconsin on the EURO. Pretty salty system for those in the cold sector.

[Geos]

Nebraska to Wisconsin are largely below normal in snowfall. Hopefully this first system can deliver. Alright starting that weekend storm thread now.

[Tom]

Euro showing a 1028mb HP just SW of Hudson Bay that should feed this system enough cold air to produce a significant band of snow.  This is why I have always said, let's wait and see how the models handle the chaos going on in the atmosphere.  If the models trend towards more snow, rather than concrete mixers, lesson learned.

[OKwx2k4]

Because I don't agree with what the euro ensembles are showing, I deserve to get banned?

I agree with what Geos said. If you say something intelligent or explain your thoughts, who knows, I may agree with you. That's the point of discussion right?

[Tom]

00z Euro showing another Cutter up from the Plains towards the Lakes.  Looks a bit weak but still lays down another 3-6" in CO/KS/NE Day 8-9...

[OKwx2k4]

Euro showing a 1028mb HP just SW of Hudson Bay that should feed this system enough cold air to produce a significant band of snow. This is why I have always said, let's wait and see how the models handle the chaos going on in the atmosphere. If the models trend towards more snow, rather than concrete mixers, lesson learned.

I'm really watching the first system there. If everything keeps heading the direction it is going then the second one should be a lot of fun as well.

[winterfreak]

Still can't get over the now forecasted 929mb low in the Bering Sea on the GFS. Beware coastal Alaska.

[OKwx2k4]

Still can't get over the now forecasted 929mb low in the Bering Sea on the GFS. Beware coastal Alaska.

I always like following these storms up there and then watching them on Deadliest Catch when it comes on in the summer.

[Snowshoe]

That's pretty!

 

00z Euro spins up a powerful western lakes cutter...down to a 978mb SLP near GRB...might have to start a thread if this storm continues to show up tomorrow.  Models def trending towards the Euro Ensemble snowfall maps. No mixing issues to the NW of the SLP and plenty cold to support snow in the defo band.

[gosaints]

Looking like cooler air arrives for about a week or so.  The big question is what happens after that?  Flip back to pac dominated zonal ???

 

Edit: And unless a snow pack builds up I dont know that any 7 day stretch will actually be below normal around here

[NEJeremy]

Will be waiting with bated breath for those 12-24" amounts between now and Dec 17.

Lol- No one ever thinks those extreme amounts are coming true. The point is it shows a system and it shows hefty amounts

[gosaints]

GFS is a perfect storm track here with system 1.  Only problem is the defo zone is to warm

[jaster220]

Lol- No one ever thinks those extreme amounts are coming true. The point is it shows a system and it shows hefty amounts

 

Unless...they actually do

 

Like the last Big Dog

 

 

[winterfreak]

Starting to give up on December, which is fine. Hope this second half of winter turns out like Jan-Feb 2013. GFS does show some respectable cold in the longer range. Come on blocking.

[Iowa2015]

Look at those Snow totals across Iowa No chance that happens too warm for Snow minus a couple slushy inches if we get extremely lucky.

[jcwxguy]

Look at those Snow totals across Iowa No chance that happens too warm for Snow minus a couple slushy inches if we get extremely lucky.

that was for our last storm...

[Maxim]

Unless...they actually do

 

Like the last Big Dog

 

20151118 0z GEM 102hr Snowfall.png

Completely different set-up, and a much more favorable one too. I knew from the beginning that storm would become something special. Plus, there was actually some cold air to work with in that system.