HighlandExperience Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals. Additional records and anomalies include: - The most amplified +QBO wave on record- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming) We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015. #anomalous #changeisafootWhat does this mean for our future? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Nothing another 10" by the end of the month won't cure. Screw snow, I'm rooting for those records to just get shattered.I do like records. Even rain records. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 What does this mean for our future? iceagenow. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals. Additional records and anomalies include: - The most amplified +QBO wave on record- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming) We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015. #anomalous #changeisafoot#globalwarming?? Jk jk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 The understatement of the day is that I love the GEM - GLB model! It gives me 66.7 cm of snow by day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z = *yawn* Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Well, you would think so... It is already a little better than last year. Specially for the mountains. I have always had a perspective that overtime things balance out but honestly who knows what that will look like for us. AND to be honest I am not sure that is always 100% true or plays out like anyone would expect, specially in the shorter term (1 to 5 years).Everybody keeps saying "well, it's better than last year", but that's not true from a cold air perspective. We had three shots of cold air last year (one in mid Nov, one late Nov/early Dec, one in late Dec), all three of which were probably more impressive than the late November cold snap we just had. This winter has certainly been active and interesting so far (I'm hoping PDX blows away its monthly rainfall record) and has been better for the mountains, but if you judge a winter by cold/snow for the lowlands like many do, this year is lagging behind last. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Mountain snow is looking slightly better than last year. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z = *yawn*good news is nobody will be complaining about a drought anytime soon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 good news is nobody will be complaining about a drought anytime soon I am sure Andrew is still living through epic drought and everything is dried up and dead there and it will never rain again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Let's play fill in the blanks! So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________. I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now. With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future. It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________. Any thoughts? 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Let's play fill in the blanks! So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________. I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now. With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future. It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________. Any thoughts? _____ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Let's play fill in the blanks! So the 18z looks pretty ______ in the ____________ range, but of course there's _________ in play at this point and it's anyone's guess how the ___________ will ultimately play out considering the ______ , ________ and most importantly _________. I can't believe people are being so __________ about our chances right now. With the fact it ________ and there was some pretty serious _______ it's clear there are ______ and ______ in our fairly near future. It'll be interesting to see if the 00z runs pick up on some of the ___________ and ______ which have previously been discussed but minimized due to _________ and especially ________. Any thoughts? Very good. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 #globalwarming?? Jk jkLooks like Al Gore had it right all along. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 According to the GFS and the Euro Christmas eve looks cool, so there is that. Maybe snow for me, and lets me honest that is all we really care about anyways? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Looks like Al Gore had it right all along.All this warm weather back east will only solidify his claims. Sorry Big Joe Bastardi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 _____ No need to use profanity there soldier... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 What does this mean for our future?We'll know the answer to that sometime in the future. Otherwise, La Niña/-QBO for winter 2016-17. Heavy severe weather/hurricane seasons for U.S over next 2 years? Wouldn't surprise me to see several major hurricane strikes on U.S. over the next 2-3 years. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 The frozen precipitation that fell at my work this morning has held tough all day and even the side roads have some slush still. Like I said, I will take what I can get! Anyhow I like how much cold air is building up north towards the end of the year, lots of potential there!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z = *yawn* 18z = yawn = good When the 18z is snowgasmic, it never happens, as we all know. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z = *yawn*More like a *wince*. Not even a carrot out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 18z = yawn = good When the 18z is snowgasmic, it never happens, as we all know.When the 18z is a yawner it usually verifies... Just sayin... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Us Western Washingtonians just need a good region wide snowstorm again with Winter Storm warnings posted for all counties...nearly 4 years is just too long to wait. It will happen, and it will happen big! January 1950 baby! Lets do this!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 In my poinion the most encouraging things are 1) We aren't in a splitty dry pattern with a ridge/inversion overhead. 2) Mountains are getting dumped on and will continue to down to 1500' maybe. 3) Bitter cold returns up north, especially on the GFS. Unfortunately the 500mb pattern isn't going to remain like this forever, so we're running out of time until split flow arrives. Just my thoughts. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 January 2012 is the last time I felt satisfied in the snow dept. I think we are due Longer that for me.. I got barely anything here from that .. 2008 was truly the last satisfying event here. So glad we're talking about snow. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 [Model Countdown] 12/14/15 Next up................ *00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes 00z GEM in 4 hours 30 minutes 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 55 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 In my poinion the most encouraging things are1) We aren't in a splitty dry pattern with a ridge/inversion overhead.2) Mountains are getting dumped on and will continue to down to 1500' maybe.3) Bitter cold returns up north, especially on the GFS. Unfortunately the 500mb pattern isn't going to remain like this forever, so we're running out of time until split flow arrives. Just my thoughts. Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable. That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Longer that for me.. I got barely anything here from that .. 2008 was truly the last satisfying event here.You didn't score in 2012? Did you end up having more ice at the tail end of that event? If I remember correctly I think we ended up with a good 16" or so in my area and no ice. That was the one and only time I have ever heard the Emergency Alert System go off on the radio and it not be a test. Was when I was driving in blinding snow on my way to work that morning... It was for the Ice storm happening south of me. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Longer that for me.. I got barely anything here from that .. 2008 was truly the last satisfying event here.I would even take a good old Dec. 1996 repeat. Winter Storm Warnings were posted for every single county in the state before that major overriding event happened. Ahhh...the good old days! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Hasn't stopped snowing here since 10pm last night. There's at least a foot of snow on the ground, probably more but I suck at estimating and I don't have a ruler. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 You didn't score in 2012? Did you end up having more ice at the tail end of that event? If I remember correctly I think we ended up with a good 16" or so in my area and no ice. That was the one and only time I have ever heard the Emergency Alert System go off on the radio and it not be a test. Was when I was driving in blinding snow on my way to work that morning... It was for the Ice storm happening south of me.. I got about 3 inches of snow at night but about 8am it turned over to freezing rain which lasted the rest of the time. Had over an inch of ice on everything. It was super devastating to trees we had and not fun to be out in at all. Basically, it sucked... If it had not turned to freezing rain it would have been awesome!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Agreed. It is a bummer that things have yet to amplify with the overall pattern being so favorable. That being said, the 500mb pattern was stuck in a ridgy rut for an awfully long time until a few months ago. Maybe the atmosphere will get stuck again for awhile.Maybe will be stuck in this pattern for two years 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 At least the -PNA forecast on the Euro Weeklies just after Christmas offers a bit of promise..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Hasn't stopped snowing here since 10pm last night. There's at least a foot of snow on the ground, probably more but I suck at estimating and I don't have a ruler. Deep, man. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Here in East Everett I got 15 inches of snow in 2008, and 13 inches of snow in 2012 with a little bit of ice on top of it. Being in the convergence zone really helped in 2012. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Here in East Everett I got 15 inches of snow in 2008, and 13 inches of snow in 2012 with a little bit of ice on top of it. Being in the convergence zone really helped in 2012.Yeah, the convergence zone really helped up there. We literally had 10 hours of freezing drizzle. Honestly, it was pretty on the tree's and all but not all that much fun to actually enjoy it. I was very jealous of you all up north. The most snow I have gotten since 2008 was the 2012 storm but it turned to freezing rain the minute we all went to go play in it. It has been a really long time since we have gotten a good snow or a snow that did not melt before noon. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 I was in the 40-50" range in 2008. I had at least 36" on my driveway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Not sure what all of the griping is about. At face value the models indicate we could have a white Christmas. All it would take is precip with weak offshore flow. By far the best looking ECMWF run yet today. I almost hate coming on here when we have a decent shot at a cold spell because everyone is always so D**n negative about it. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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