December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What happened to your life?

 

Nothing really. It just seems like the kind of thing that would happen to me. As of now I run a fairly successful, very financially stable social service non-profit. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM is like the GFS, but it keeps the ridge/positive anomaly near the Aleutians for cold air potential beyond day 10 too.

[Front Ranger]

Obi Wan Euro, you're our only hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Both PDX and SLE still have a chance at 2" of rain today. I think they both do it.

[Gradient Keeper]

The GEM might be closer to the EURO. What do you think, Tim?

[TT-SEA]

Nothing really. It just seems like the kind of thing that would happen to me. As of now I run a fairly successful, very financially stable social service non-profit. 

 

 

That is what I thought.   

 

Side note- back to freezing rain and sleet here and 32.

 

Want to hear that south wind blowing to end this icing threat.

[TT-SEA]

The GEM might be closer to the EURO. What do you think, Tim?

 

 

The Canadian maps I use are not detailed enough.   Hard to tell.   I usually use it for the 500mb pattern but that is not as helpful in this type of situation.

[TT-SEA]

Must be quite the adventure going over Snoqulamie Pass tonight.   The fun starts the minute you leave North Bend and from there to Ellensburg it looks like an episode of Ice Road Truckers.  

[westiztehbest]

Winter wx advisory upgraded to winter storm warning.  4-7" forecasted now.  Been snowing almost an inch per hour the last couple.  

[snow_wizard]

Oh I'm here. Just hanging out watching tv and looking outside trying to decide what I want to do tomorrow. Other then ride the quad with the kids, I might go for a short snow hike with my dog, just him and I. There are miles and miles of service/reservation roads out here that I can get lost on, on foot. Ive always wanted to hike through an eastern WA pine forest....ever since I was a kid. You can see everything, even if it gets thick for a moment, it always thins out and you can see. It makes it more fun to hunt, and to hike because the wildlife is more easily identifiable and seen. 

 

The funny thing is you haven't seen anything yet.  My parents used to live in Colville so I drove through the town you live in a few times during the winter.  The only thing about having snow all the time is it won't be as magical after a while.  I still envy you though.

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM is like the GFS, but it keeps the ridge/positive anomaly near the Aleutians for cold air potential beyond day 10 too.

 

The GEM is actually quite a bit better IMO.

[TT-SEA]

You could drive right now from North Bend to Spokane and see very little pavement.    I-90 is basically snow covered the entire way.   Even in Moses Lake.  

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW !

[MikeInEverett]

WOW !

WHAT IS IT?!?!?!

[Gradient Keeper]

WHAT IS IT?!?!?!

Nothing just keeping everyone on their toes

[snow_wizard]

The good news about the 0z GFS is the is the CPC analog correlation scores were very low.  That means the pattern is more unlikely to verify than if the scores were high.

 

I'll bet tonight's ECMWF will be just as good as the 12z based on the strong ensemble support that run had.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Improved ensembles

[Front Ranger]

WHAT IS IT?!?!?!

 

Hour 240 of the NAM is looking pretty tasty...

[GHweatherChris]

The GFS and 12z ECMWF are so different over the northern GOA around day 8 it's almost comical.  Obviously I hope the ECMWF wins out, but at least the 0z GFS gets pretty cold, but dry.

Dry equals wasted cold, yet again.

 

And we do not need to hear about surprises.

 

If we get cold again with no snow then all I get to do is scrape frost off my work rig at 5 AM, not my version of fun.  I would much rather shovel snow off the driveway any day.

[Timmy]

Winds ramping up and it's above 45 for the first time in like a week! Crazy inversion too, was 42 in town and up at my place it's 50!

[TT-SEA]

We are a week out from Christmas Eve.   That is usually the timeframe when the ECMWF locks in and will be pretty close.  I suspect the 00Z run will be like the 12Z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

The good news about the 0z GFS is the is the CPC analog correlation scores were very low.  That means the pattern is more unlikely to verify than if the scores were high.

 

I'll bet tonight's ECMWF will be just as good as the 12z based on the strong ensemble support that run had.

Agreed. Composite Analog 6-10 day 80.5%, 8-14 day 75% low scores less chance GFS handling pattern change/recognition accurately.

[TT-SEA]

Winds ramping up and it's above 45 for the first time in like a week! Crazy inversion too, was 42 in town and up at my place it's 50!

 

 

Sort of jealous... but I know it will be seriously windy here in a few hours and the temp will jump dramatically.    Not a fan of the freezing rain falling here.

 

We have had absolutely no wind all day... snowed 2 inches this morning and never went above 33.   The snow has not melted at all and is now encased in ice.   But it should be gone by morning per the WRF.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like 7 GFS ensemble members drop the 850s to -8 or lower over Seattle just before New Years.  Might be another window of opportunity emerging.  It wouldn't be totally shocking if it gets cold around Christmas and just stays there until New Years.  The ECMWF kind of hints at that on the 12z.

[Guest Winterdog]

Front Ranger, on 17 Dec 2015 - 9:45 PM, said:

Hour 240 of the NAM is looking pretty tasty...

Didn't get me to bite on that one.

[snow_wizard]

Dry equals wasted cold, yet again.

 

And we do not need to hear about surprises.

 

If we get cold again with no snow then all I get to do is scrape frost off my work rig at 5 AM, not my version of fun.  I would much rather shovel snow off the driveway any day.

 

We'll just have to wait and see.

 

BTW...as far as surprises are concerned the NWS seemed surprised about the snow in Whatcom County today even though some models had advertised it.  We're not that far from something good here.

[TT-SEA]

We'll just have to wait and see.

 

BTW...as far as surprises are concerned the NWS seemed surprised about the snow in Whatcom County today even though some models had advertised it.  We're not that far from something good here.

 

 

It can snow all the time in Lynden and at my house and in the Hood Canal and mean very little for the rest of the area.    

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 17 Dec 2015 - 9:51 PM, said:

It looks like 7 GFS ensemble members drop the 850s to -8 or lower over Seattle just before New Years.  Might be another window of opportunity emerging.  It wouldn't be totally shocking if it gets cold around Christmas and just stays there until New Years.  The ECMWF kind of hints at that on the 12z.

Great.  That'll keep the weenies on the run, that arctic air is just like the rabbit in a greyhound race.

[Front Ranger]

We are a week out from Christmas Eve.   That is usually the timeframe when the ECMWF locks in and will be pretty close.  I suspect the 00Z run will be like the 12Z run.

 

I respect this. Consistency and objectivity. You're loyally sticking with King Euro, as you would do if it sucked. 

 

Down with the ship...

[westiztehbest]

Loving these analogues for the next week or so considering 2008 was the snowiest winter ever here..  Feels like a mini La Nina within an El Nino.  Guess the MJO is to thank.

 

[Snowman5678]

Sort of jealous... but I know it will be seriously windy here in a few hours and the temp will jump dramatically.    Not a fan of the freezing rain falling here.

 

We have had absolutely no wind all day... snowed 2 inches this morning and never went above 33.   The snow has not melted at all and is now encased in ice.   But it should be gone by morning per the WRF.

Really? No wind there? Its been windy all day long here out of the ESE. Still pretty gusty at 37 degrees. Chunky rain most of the day.

[Front Ranger]

It can snow all the time in Lynden and at my house and in the Hood Canal and mean very little for the rest of the area.    

 

Yes, but most of the time it isn't snowing in those areas. Last winter, for instance.

[GHweatherChris]

We'll just have to wait and see.

 

BTW...as far as surprises are concerned the NWS seemed surprised about the snow in Whatcom County today even though some models had advertised it. We're not that far from something good here.

They weren't surprised. No reason to alarm people over a 1 maybe 2 inch snowfall at the border in the winter most are used to the chance. I have friends up there and noone seemed shocked that it snowed, according to them it was business as usual in the area.

 

The advisory was status quo for the NWS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Loving these analogues for the next week or so considering 2008 was the snowiest winter ever here..  Feels like a mini La Nina within an El Nino.  Guess the MJO is to thank.

 

http://s8.postimg.org/hf6msys4l/610analog_off.gif

That's yesterday's unless this is from 12z or 18z?

[Bryant]

Loving these analogues for the next week or so considering 2008 was the snowiest winter ever here.. Feels like a mini La Nina within an El Nino. Guess the MJO is to thank.

 

The MJO is non existent right now but tropical forcing overall is helping us indeed

[TT-SEA]

Really? No wind there? Its been windy all day long here out of the ESE. Still pretty gusty at 37 degrees. Chunky rain most of the day.

Literally dead calm almost all day. Snow was coming straight down and now the sleet and freezing rain is doing the same. The trees are still covered in snow here.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO HR 96

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[GHweatherChris]

Literally dead calm almost all day. Snow was coming straight down and now the sleet and freezing rain is doing the same. The trees are still covered in snow here.

Oh boo hoo, your getting exactly what most of us crave.

[Front Ranger]

Euro already looking way better than GFS.

[snow_wizard]

They weren't surprised. No reason to alarm people over a 1 maybe 2 inch snowfall at the border in the winter most are used to the chance. I have friends up there and noone seemed shocked that it snowed, according to them it was business as usual in the area.

 

The advisory was status quo for the NWS.

 

You sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.