Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 00z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 GFS the odd ball still with not enough cold air. It is pretty close though in eastern Nebraska.I can tell from Tom's map that the model doesn't deepen the storm like the other models do, hence the snow further west and weaker. NAM for instance has the storm several mb lower when it is passing Omaha at it's closest approach. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 00z RGEM...creeping on your doorstep CentralNeb.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121200/rgem_asnow_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 GEM at hour 42Â Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Well if the 00z Canadian is on to something you guys in Nebraska are going to have a lot of fun over the next 5 days. The storm next Tuesday and Wednesday is trending further south as well. Some spots in Nebraska showing 16" on the cmc over the next 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Boy that is beautiful Tom. still waiting for local mets to give it any attention. Might be advisories issued in the early morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Thanks for the map and great information bud2380. Appreciate the teamwork of this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Boy that is beautiful Tom. still waiting for local mets to give it any attention. Might be advisories issued in the early morning Hastings needs to make a decision pretty soon! Glad the map loads up for you faster bud. Tropical tidbits is running slow tonight. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 The beginnings of a "mini" snowmagedon...man, you guys in the Plains are in the hot spot. Â Hope this "lead" system ignites the entire pattern into overdrive. Â It's too bad this first storm didn't have the cold air to begin with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 You guys in Nebraska will be rocking it according the GEM.  Rainfall for the rest of us. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 00z Euro...I wouldn't be surprised if there is embedded thundersnow in NE/NW IA...this defo band looks to be very intense. Â Dynamic cooling should do the trick with these type of systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 The nws Hastings disco has awoken.  ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT ... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * TIMING ...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ISEXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL TO COME TO ANEND MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION ...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES AREFORECAST. * UNCERTAINTY ...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEENMODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ...AND WITHWHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND WILL DEVELOP. CHANGES IN THESE ELEMENTSWOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS ...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20TO 25 MPH ...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS ...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD RESULTIN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ...SLEET ...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 The cut off is just crazy. Us in southeast Nebraska look to get missed again. I think it is going to be central and western Nebraskas yest considering the snow they have already received. Looks like we will sit with 1.25" of snow for the year for a while longer here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 This map was just issued by nws Hastings. Loving it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 how depressing! this would have had HUGE snowfall totals if it fell as rain! I like how they have only rain forecasted though when it is 32 for a low on Sunday night TonightShowers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 40. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.SundayRain. High near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.Sunday NightRain. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 So close for Lincoln. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015  how depressing! this would have had HUGE snowfall totals if it fell as rain! I like how they have only rain forecasted though when it is 32 for a low on Sunday night TonightShowers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 40. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.SundayRain. High near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.Sunday NightRain. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.  I know it doesn't make sense. If you do get to freezing, then you probably will get some snow. If somehow you can avoid the dryslot then there is no mid level warm layer to prevent snow. Sounding near Lincoln at 39 hours, 12z 12km NAM. Just to show that temperature decrease steadily with height. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 8" probability Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 I know it doesn't make sense. If you do get to freezing, then you probably will get some snow. If somehow you can avoid the dryslot then there is no mid level warm layer to prevent snow. Sounding near Lincoln at 39 hours, 12z 12km NAM. Just to show that temperature decrease steadily with height. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2015121212_F39_41.0000N_96.5000W.pngI think the NWS office was maybe being a bit "lazy" too?! Presumably the low themp will be later in the evening, so it would stay rain for most of the night, but you would think there would at least be a mix there at the end. Up until this grid point forecast, there has been rain/snow in the forecast for Sunday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Is it just me, or does the 18z NAM look a LITTLE bit better for Omaha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Nws Hastings really waiting until tomorrow for final forecasts. Broad brushing up to 6 inches but that may go up or down based on changeover. I think they were burned on an earlier storm and don't want the backlash. I guess I can't blame them but other offices issuing warnings. We will see who is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 18z NAM showing a narrow band of 3-5" for Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 18z NAM showing a narrow band of 3-5" for Lincoln very sharp cutoff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 very sharp cutoffJcwxguy can you post the 00z when it comes out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Jcwxguy can you post the 00z when it comes out?yeah, going to be around 8pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 34 degrees here and am hearing thunder outside 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Now lightning. Heavy drizzle and windy. Sure feels like a storm is coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think the NWS office was maybe being a bit "lazy" too?! Presumably the low themp will be later in the evening, so it would stay rain for most of the night, but you would think there would at least be a mix there at the end. Up until this grid point forecast, there has been rain/snow in the forecast for Sunday night I've proved the Chicago office wrong before. They've put rain and 32° or they say little to no accumulation and it ends up snowing a couple inches or more! NAM is definitely seeing something that the GEM or GFS does not.  Starting a thread for the next system for you guys in the Plains. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Lost power at my hotel for a minute (lightning strike). Took me a while to get everything back online lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Ya we had a pretty health strike in Lincoln about 20 mins ago. Power flashed here as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Sounds interesting out there - at least something to write about. Guess it is our turn to sit on the side lines over here. Good Luck - hope that NAM is right just as it was in painting some accurate larger totals over here in the November storm. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Nam is east a bit from previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Sounds interesting out there - at least something to write about. Guess it is our turn to sit on the side lines over here. Good Luck - hope that NAM is right just as it was in painting some accurate larger totals over here in the November storm. That it was. Next best model(s) was the GEM/RGEM. NAM is super juiced over KS and NE. Looks really nice!   Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015121300/namconus_asnow_ncus_16.pngMan what I wouldn't give if this turns out to be one of those amazing SURPRISE snowstorms for Omaha. We tend to get one or two of those every decade, and we haven't really seen one this decade yet LOL. Actually we've been burned more often than not. Hearing some thunder in SW Omaha right now, had a few very heavy downpours within the last couple hours. Haven't seen rainfall rates like this in December in a long time in this area of the country, if ever. This weather pattern is certainly exciting, but ready for some snow!   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015121300/nam4km_asnow_ncus_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Jim Flowers just said this on Facebook: Evening nam model is tracking system farther south....yikes! upper air looks like oct. 97 storm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 Very heavy rain with thunder in Lincoln! I think this storm will surprise with heavy wet snow at this time tomorrow! It reminds me of the Halloween storm of 97. Little if any snow and wake up to trees coming down! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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