winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS is still west and warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah looks like a 1006 L on the CO/KS boarder or so GFS had something similar as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS is still west and warm.If your talking about the 1/8-1/9 system, we have a separate thread... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 disasterhttp://i.imgur.com/OUxNmMu.pngThat map disagrees with a -4.5 AO developing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah that 500mb is cold for the Midwest, except maybe for KS. A high is going to develop near Greenland. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah. I'm sure it's going to rearrange itself a few more times between now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I just want it to get cold and for Bama to lose on 1/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I just want it to get cold and for Bama to lose on 1/11I can agree on both counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yeah that 500mb is cold for the Midwest, except maybe for KS. A high is going to develop near Greenland. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010312/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.pngReally hope this doesn't verify as pictured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Really hope this doesn't verify as pictured. That high in Alberta and MT is sliding south, just an fyi. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Storm after the cutter is OTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Storm after the cutter is OTS.Pretty much one shot at glory for awhile and thats the end of the week system. Pretty much all to look forward to in the next 10-12 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 00z Euro has 2 nights -10/-15F near MSP...ORD near 0F without snow cover...impressive arctic outbreak if it matures the way it can...might here the media hype the return of the PV near the Lakes...this would be an extreme flip in the pattern...right in the heart of where it was the "warmest" in December...Northern Plains/Northwoods...Nature playing its balancing act I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 00z Euro/Euro Para still have a secondary wave cutting up near the OV Day 6-7...OKC still not out of the woods here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GFS playing catch up and digging the secondary wave back near the 4 corners and out into the southern Plains like the Euro/Euro Para. Long way to go...but this has lots of potential for those down farther south and even near the lower lakes/OV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GFS playing catch up and digging the secondary wave back near the 4 corners and out into the southern Plains like the Euro/Euro Para. Long way to go...but this has lots of potential for those down farther south and even near the lower lakes/OV. Yeah, looks like the first one is gonna come south a bit from early prog's, but not far enough to give SMI snow. That 2nd system is my only hope of not being in the screw zone between two swaths of plowable snows. And, that 2nd system really needs to get more amped up from these initial maps to reach mby in Marshall. Still early, so not ruling it out. Cautiously optimistic. Though I'd feel better about it if I was further east like Nikos in Detroit. They may do fine with it as is. Needs to go big to get much for my place 100 miles west of the Motor City. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yeah, looks like the first one is gonna come south a bit from early prog's, but not far enough to give SMI snow. That 2nd system is my only hope of not being in the screw zone between two swaths of plowable snows. And, that 2nd system really needs to get more amped up from these initial maps to reach mby in Marshall. Still early, so not ruling it out. Cautiously optimistic. Though I'd feel better about it if I was further east like Nikos in Detroit. They may do fine with it as is. Needs to go big to get much for my place 100 miles west of the Motor City.I agree, this one needs to amp up right from the get-go out in the Pan Handle which it very well could since all the systems this season have been amplifying. With the blocking in place and the way the pattern in the mid latitudes will slow, I can see this one become a major system. Just not sure yet if it can come that far north for us right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I agree, this one needs to amp up right from the get-go out in the Pan Handle which it very well could since all the systems this season have been amplifying. With the blocking in place and the way the pattern in the mid latitudes will slow, I can see this one become a major system. Just not sure yet if it can come that far north for us right now. I will say this - I'd rather have the GFS south of me at this range per its history at 7 days out. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GGEM also cuts this system up the OV... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I like the way this GEM looks at 500 - should be good for LES too for SWMI. Also, the lining up of SLP's from near the GOMEX to Huron, and up in Canada is almost identical to the Jan 1918 OHV Bomb. That also had bitter cold swinging in with it. Hate to start any storm with bare ground, but I think '67, '99, and Dec 2000 all did for the most part and still turned out great. So, not going to let this rainy stage-setter sour my mood. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice dry hole in between the two storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Those holding hope for the 2nd storm should be rooting hard NW for the first one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Heh. I'm still here fellas. Lol. That 12z run raised my eyebrows a little. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 GFS is OTS with the second storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Pretty darn cold air filtering in next week ughhh. Would be even worse if we have bare ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 If you live near the Lakes, one thing is for certain, when the bitter cold comes, the Lakes are going to be on fire...for days...those who live in SW MI are going to see some amazing snow squalls off of Lake Michigan. Regarding the snowfall contest, tie breaker question #3 is going to be interesting for Grand Rapids, MI: #3: Greatest lake effect snowfall total for Grand Rapids, MI in January. (Will have to pay close attention to this one... events can last for a few days) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm amazed just watching the loop of the GFS over the last few days and acknowledging the hemispheric blocking as Canada loads up with some astounding cold air. If you love the weather, you can appreciate how this has evolved into an extreme pattern. From a torchy Nov-Dec, Jan is most likely going to produce one of the biggest "flips" I have seen in my lifetime. I've never seen something like this happen before. Who knows what February will bring, but I don't anticipate it to be boring weather wise. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm amazed just watching the loop of the GFS over the last few days and acknowledging the hemispheric blocking as Canada loads up with some astounding cold air. If you love the weather, you can appreciate how this has evolved into an extreme pattern. From a torchy Nov-Dec, Jan is most likely going to produce one of the biggest "flips" I have seen in my lifetime. I've never seen something like this happen before. Who knows what February will bring, but I don't anticipate it to be boring weather wise.Definitely going to be amazing to observe and learn even if I don't get any snow. I love winter because in my state so many different things can happen in a given season. This is going to be fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Dry and cold, how fun, huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Dry and cold, how fun, huh?Lol...You ready? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lol...You ready?oh don't worry, I've been expecting it for a while. Just came a month earlier than I had anticipated. I'm not sure why anyone would get excited over it though, like you seem to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 oh don't worry, I've been expecting it for a while. Just came a month earlier than I had anticipated. I'm not sure why anyone would get excited over it though, like you seem to be. You were off a month, I was off about 10 days...doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's Mother Nature...enjoy whatever she brings... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 You were off a month, I was off about 10 days...doh!Not really. We haven't really locked into a cold pattern yet... next several days will be above average still, but nothing too crazy. So you were about a month off as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 yeah okay, so enjoy useless cold with tundra like conditions. sounds like a plan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Not really. We haven't really locked into a cold pattern yet... next several days will be above average still, but nothing too crazy. So you were about a month off as well.The pattern change began in late December...your in denial..we went from a torch to more seasonal levels...I'd say that is a change...so be it if we bounce up above normal for a few days...the colder regime is going to lock in for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Its a great time to live in tug hill or in hamburg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I might need to stop model watching for a week. Kind of frustrating looking and seeing nothing over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 I might need to stop model watching for a week. Kind of frustrating looking and seeing nothing over and over again.Ya we pretty much we pretty much get one shot before the cold sets in. and that is looking marginal for anyone. Then we arr past hour about hour 240 before any real threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Unrelated but what a game tonight. Rock chalk jayhawk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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