Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks like someone's going to get a nice dose of the white stuff, but with the way the models are bouncing around from run to run, we may not know who that is until a day or two beforehand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Another thing to watch is what happens to the placement of the Aleutian Low. If it stays farther west, then it will allow to pump the NW NAMER ridge a lot better and dig that trough deep into the 4 corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Another thing to watch is what happens to the placement of the Aleutian Low. If it stays farther west, then it will allow to pump the NW NAMER ridge a lot better and dig that trough deep into the 4 corners.I think the ridge in the east is a bigger thing to watch. The deeper the trough in the west the bigger the ridge in the east which allows for a more NW track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 You can see how last night the 00z Euro bundled the Aleutian Low and yesterday on its 12z run it had a piece of energy come off of it just SW of Alaska. If the energy stays bundled and farther west then the downstream HP in southern Canada would work out a lot better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think the ridge in the east is a bigger thing to watch. The deeper the trough in the west the bigger the ridge in the east which allows for a more NW track.Not necessarily, the down stream ridge in the east isn't that overwhelming (neutral PNA). I'd like to see this storm dig farther south into the 4 corners. The farther it can dig, the better odds this storm can spread the wealth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look at the surface pressures in the East...they are pretty minimal...its not like we are seeing a monster ridge like we did back in December (strong -PNA). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 The ridging in western Canada act as a suppressing mechanism to the storm track. Unlike in December, where there was a trough hugging NW NAMER and storms continually cut NW over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 EURO takes a perfect track yet no snow. I couldn't draw the track better myself. Guess we have to have the perfect setup this winter to get anything close to significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS isn't digging this low at all. Keeps ejecting it eastward into early. good news is there's like 40 highs in Canada. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160125/12Z/f252/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ouch on the GFS. Congrats to MSP. Hopefully this is the storm that flips it back to a colder pattern towards the second half of Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 another epic disaster of a run by the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Anyone have the 12z GGEM maps? On the road today...thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 shows the storm and loses it at hour 240 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/output_RAIEBm_zpsmdr87pny.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Throwing the towel in. GFS has been better then euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 drier run for sure, at least for up here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f216/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 12Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 30-JAN 8.0 8.3 1004 56 74 0.00 556 553 SUN 00Z 31-JAN 7.0 7.4 1001 70 64 0.00 553 553 SUN 06Z 31-JAN 3.0 3.5 1002 85 76 0.02 550 548 SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.5 1.9 1001 93 81 0.07 547 546 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 3.2 -1.3 1004 84 97 0.02 545 542 MON 00Z 01-FEB 1.2 -2.4 1007 94 93 0.09 543 537 MON 06Z 01-FEB -1.9 -2.2 1010 90 63 0.00 544 536 MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.0 -3.2 1012 86 50 0.00 544 534 MON 18Z 01-FEB 0.4 -4.9 1016 77 70 0.00 544 531 TUE 00Z 02-FEB -1.0 -7.7 1017 79 84 0.01 543 529 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -6.5 -9.5 1022 66 88 0.04 542 525 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -10.1 -11.7 1023 54 68 0.00 538 520 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -8.0 -13.3 1027 42 39 0.00 538 517 WED 00Z 03-FEB -7.6 -11.2 1028 43 53 0.00 538 516 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027 12Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 06Z 01-FEB 2.1 -1.2 1009 93 27 0.00 549 543 MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.5 -1.7 1011 97 81 0.06 550 541 MON 18Z 01-FEB 2.7 -2.9 1014 86 94 0.03 551 539 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.9 -3.1 1013 86 95 0.01 550 539 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -1.4 -4.9 1015 88 96 0.12 548 536 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -5.9 -6.2 1014 85 99 0.32 543 532 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -8.9 -9.3 1021 71 97 0.32 538 522 WED 00Z 03-FEB -9.6 -9.5 1027 66 43 0.01 540 520 W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807 12Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 25-JAN -4.7 -2.7 1013 89 41 0.00 551 541 MON 18Z 25-JAN -0.1 -2.4 1009 84 29 0.00 549 541 TUE 00Z 26-JAN 0.1 -1.2 1006 92 100 0.03 544 539 TUE 06Z 26-JAN -0.9 -5.2 1003 96 98 0.24 536 534 TUE 12Z 26-JAN -2.3 -8.9 1009 90 92 0.08 535 528 TUE 18Z 26-JAN -1.0 -9.2 1014 84 97 0.02 533 522 WED 00Z 27-JAN -2.5 -11.4 1019 83 99 0.02 533 518 1 FRI 18Z 29-JAN -7.7 -5.7 1014 70 64 0.00 546 535 SAT 00Z 30-JAN -4.7 -1.5 1006 86 84 0.06 545 540 SAT 06Z 30-JAN -2.3 -3.4 997 90 99 0.05 534 537 SAT 12Z 30-JAN -2.4 -2.9 996 96 95 0.08 533 536 MON 06Z 01-FEB -0.5 -1.2 1005 94 76 0.00 540 536 MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.2 -3.7 1007 96 76 0.02 538 533 MON 18Z 01-FEB 0.4 -6.5 1012 89 44 0.00 540 531 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 0.0 -8.2 1015 87 20 0.00 543 531 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -2.2 -9.3 1018 86 30 0.00 543 529 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -6.7 -9.5 1019 83 68 0.00 541 527 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -7.3 -10.1 1016 83 71 0.01 538 526 WED 00Z 03-FEB -7.8 -15.1 1016 73 48 0.06 531 519 WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.0 -16.2 1023 75 13 0.00 530 512 WED 12Z 03-FEB -19.0 -17.9 1028 76 46 0.00 526 505 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 there ya go winterfreak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 It worked back in December. Maybe it will work again. HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!!!!HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!!!! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Snow map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 This run of the euro just slams Chicago with a direct hit. Clips southeast Iowa. Showing 4-5" imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Now that is what I was waiting for. Notice the bundled Aleutian Low pumping up the ridge in western CA. What does ORD look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Thanks Bud. Long ways to go though. I'm liking the placement of the HP. Shifting west every 24 hrs. Digesting EPO signal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 image.jpgCan you post the map thats shows the eastern lakes? Sorry I'm located in Toronto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 there ya go winterfreak You had to do it. Thanks a bunch man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice development in the EURO.Can't wait to see the EPS. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Decent track 7 inches Not holding my breath it verifys this far out still being a week out & run to run being all over the place. Chicargo takes a direct hit wins the jackpot on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Euro snow map puts me in the 9"-12" range. It's fun to look at, but since I've only totaled 3.3" all winter and that snowfall is still days away, I won't get too excited anytime soon. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice development in the EURO.Can't wait to see the EPS. Further south please. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Further south please. Lol Would be nice if you got into the bottom of a comma head. Need phasing a little earlier for you to get snow. I would wait until this time tomorrow, but since this looks like a big threat - I'll probably start a thread on this system a day earlier than I normally would. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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