12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Iowa2015]

Need move little more eastward toward along east of Mississippi river it be a jackpot 20 inches Wow

[Money]

GGEM ensembles: Very few take the L into Iowa like the NAM/UKIE/EURO

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015122600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_072.png

[Madtown]

Guessing with the variety of precipitation, the high amounts and a fairly large travel day, winter storm watches will go up tomorrow afternoon and then be trimmed or changed as necessary Sunday

[Geos]

Stays all frozen precip here. 12z had a brief window of liquid here. Can't wait to see the sleet accumulation map.

[Grizzcoat]

 00z GGEM 96HR snow totals

[Money]

Still looks like nasty wind potential in the snow/ice areas.

 

50-55 mph wind gusts. Pressure gradient on the GGEM is 54 with a 990 L and a 1044 H 

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles basically locked in with gfs. Most cut the low right over milwaukee or very close

[Money]

Gfs ensembles basically locked in with gfs. Most cut the low right over milwaukee or very close

So pretty much like the ggem?

[gosaints]

So pretty much like the ggem?

Yes

[clintbeed1993]

You guys just got 8 inches of snow...

 

First of all, most areas only saw a couple inches.  I have yet to see anything over 2 inches at one time.  The areas that saw 7-9 were in a very narrow band from Lincoln to Omaha.  2nd, the 7-9 band was not from an actual winter storm.  Just a wave that happened to over preform with lift in a 50-100 mile band.  The thing about to slam Texas is a huge blizzard.  An actual winter storm.  Nebraska as a whole has yet to see one.

[Madtown]

Not many times does a whole state receive a blizzard or a winter storm. Not sure the last time all of wi. was under a winter headline of some type.

[Money]

0z euro coming in NW

[Money]

993 L in S IA at 72

[Geos]

EURO low in the exact same spot it was on the 0z run last night. NE TX, 48 hours.

[clintbeed1993]

EURO held firm on the Northwest track.  I really hope it's right.

[CentralNebWeather]

With you clint

[GDR]

So euro verses everything?

[Money]

Euro/nam/ukie vs gfs/ggem

[GDR]

What's your money on money? This is crazy!

[jcwxguy]

.

[Geos]

UKie is kind of in the middle area actually.

 

I'm not making a call until this time tomorrow.

 

Cedar Rapids has to have the biggest spread in snowfall totals so far between the models. 2" vs. 17".

[jcwxguy]

24hr totals

[NH4NU]

Euro = $

[Money]

jcw could you post the soundings for kosh when you got the time? Thanks

[Money]

UKie is kind of in the middle area actually.

 

I'm not making a call until this time tomorrow.

 

Cedar Rapids has to have the biggest spread in snowfall totals so far between the models. 2" vs. 17".

Euro is. 0 here with ggem around 14 lol

[winterfreak]

Anyone south of a Wichita to MKE should not expect much of any snow. Another shaft in the making.

[GDR]

[Geos]

Anyone south of a Wichita to MKE should not expect much of any snow. Another shaft in the making.

 

Sleet accumulation on the other hand...

 

I don't envy any forecaster/headline issuer in the Midwest or southern Plains right now.

[Money]

[jcwxguy]

jcw could you post the soundings for kosh when you got the time? Thanks

in a minute or two, here is Lincoln which looks like sleet to snow

[jcwxguy]

O

[ToastedRavs]

By far the worst run for the Des Moines area; but I will still take this if it materializes.

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -2.6    -1.7    1027      70      56    0.00     566     546    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.8    -3.5    1018      83      99    0.31     563     548    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -0.5     0.1    1004      89     100    0.69     553     550    TUE 00Z 29-DEC   0.7    -2.1     995      96      92    0.39     533     537    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   0.7    -0.6     997      98      67    0.06     541     543    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -3.2    -5.9    1009      89      83    0.00     550     543   

[gabel23]

in a minute or two, here is Lincoln which looks like sleet to snow

KOLU when you get a chance.

[ToastedRavs]

Here is Omaha's numbers:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -8.5    -2.8    1028      74      35    0.00     565     543    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -5.3    -2.6    1018      88      99    0.36     559     544    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -3.2    -6.9    1006      91      93    0.75     551     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.6    -5.4    1000      92      90    0.36     541     541    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -4.0    -6.9    1005      89      89    0.05     546     542    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -8.1    -8.7    1014      85      44    0.01     550     539    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -8.2    -8.2    1019      84       6    0.00     553     538  

[ToastedRavs]

Here is OLU: (congrats!)

MON 06Z 28-DEC -10.3    -4.6    1030      69       7    0.00     564     541    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -9.6    -6.3    1022      78     100    0.09     557     540    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -7.8    -7.3    1012      89     100    0.51     551     542    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -7.9    -8.3    1007      88      92    0.39     544     539    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -7.7    -9.5    1010      86      91    0.04     546     538    TUE 12Z 29-DEC -11.0   -10.3    1016      84      41    0.02     549     536    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -9.2    -8.8    1020      82       8    0.00     551     535    

[Money]

Hmm

 

0.51 qpf with 850 temps above 0 and 2M temps below 32

[Geos]

Important to mention: A big player in all of this is the wave tomorrow. If the wave turns out a bit stronger it will act to push the baroclinic zone farther south. And the models will have to digest that new data.

[gabel23]

Here is OLU: (congrats!)

MON 06Z 28-DEC -10.3 -4.6 1030 69 7 0.00 564 541

MON 12Z 28-DEC -9.6 -6.3 1022 78 100 0.09 557 540

MON 18Z 28-DEC -7.8 -7.3 1012 89 100 0.51 551 542

TUE 00Z 29-DEC -7.9 -8.3 1007 88 92 0.39 544 539

TUE 06Z 29-DEC -7.7 -9.5 1010 86 91 0.04 546 538

TUE 12Z 29-DEC -11.0 -10.3 1016 84 41 0.02 549 536

TUE 18Z 29-DEC -9.2 -8.8 1020 82 8 0.00 551 535

 

Thank you! I'm not as good as reading these things as you guys are but I would say that is all snow and a lot of it!

[Tom]

Thank you! I'm not as good as reading these things as you guys are but I would say that is all snow and a lot of it!

Snow ratios are going to be higher than normal...probably 13:1 or better....your sitting pretty...

[ToastedRavs]

Thank you! I'm not as good as reading these things as you guys are but I would say that is all snow and a lot of it!

 

 

Yep...even at a conservative 10:1 snow ratio that is over ten inches.  You're probably looking at 14:1 ratios to 16:1 or even higher. So mid teens for snow total is possible if that verifies.