12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Geos]

CMC freezing rain accumulations

 

 

Sleet

 

 

Gives everyone a good idea what the primary thermals profiles will be in different areas. I think eastern NE is largely clear of freezing rain and probably free of any prolonged period of sleet.

[gabel23]

You gotta figure those watches extend north and east by tomorrow, models starting to get a better grasp on the track.

[winterfreak]

CMC freezing rain accumulations

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/ZR_000-120_0000.gif

 

Sleet

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PE_000-120_0000.gif

 

Gives everyone a good idea what the primary thermals profiles will be in different areas. I think eastern NE is largely clear of freezing rain and probably free of any prolonged period of sleet.

For the CMC yeah but I think most will be rain as the EURO and NAM are advertising.

[Geos]

For the CMC yeah but I think most will be rain as the EURO and NAM are advertising.

 

Probably going to be some areas that do get some sleet accumulations. Dry air from the northeast will delay the flip to rain by evaporative cooling and keep sleet going for awhile. Might be a good thing and minimize the ice threat.

Those models don't put out those types of maps, CMC is the only model that I know has those.

[jcwxguy]

.

[Money]

NAM still pointing to a serious icing event in some spots.

 

Madison:

 

151228/1900Z  61  08020KT  29.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 72| 28

151228/2000Z  62  08020KT  29.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.01    0| 58| 42

151228/2100Z  63  08021KT  29.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.01    0|  0|  0

151228/2200Z  64  08022KT  29.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.01|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.02|| 0.03    0| 28| 72

151228/2300Z  65  08024KT  30.1F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.05|| 0.06    0| 15| 85

151229/0000Z  66  08025KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.087    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.14|| 0.15    0|  4| 96

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  67  08025KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.103    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.25|| 0.25    0|  0|100

151229/0200Z  68  09027KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.26|| 0.244    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.50|| 0.50    0|  0|100

151229/0300Z  69  10019KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.68|| 0.66    0|  0|100

 

0.68 QPF FZR

 

It's about 0.4 here or so of FZR.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM area still seems to be all snow,, thickness values a little sketchy, but hopefully that can be overcome by evap cooling. Last two decent events at DSM , past Nov and the super bowl event,, temp never dropped below 0c until after the snowfall.

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88

 

06Z DEC26 * - APPROXIMATED

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

SAT 06Z 26-DEC 1.3 3.6 1022 82 99 561 544

SAT 12Z 26-DEC 1.6 2.6 1019 90 99 0.06 563 547

SAT 18Z 26-DEC 2.5 5.8 1019 94 61 0.05 564 549

SUN 00Z 27-DEC 1.3 2.8 1021 94 54 0.01 564 547

SUN 06Z 27-DEC 0.4 -0.1 1025 88 65 0.01 564 544

SUN 12Z 27-DEC -0.7 -2.4 1029 84 45 0.00 565 542

SUN 18Z 27-DEC -1.7 -3.7 1032 80 5 0.00 566 541

MON 00Z 28-DEC -4.2 -4.2 1031 73 2 0.00 566 542

MON 06Z 28-DEC -5.6 -4.0 1028 70 7 0.00 565 543

MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.7 -2.4 1019 77 95 0.01 559 544

MON 18Z 28-DEC -2.4 -4.9 1010 96 98 0.37 551 543

TUE 00Z 29-DEC -2.4 -3.4 1004 92 99 0.45 540 537

TUE 06Z 29-DEC -2.7 -4.2 1007 94 80 0.02 545 540

[Money]

NAM a touch stronger and maybe a tad south through 33 but overall pretty similar 

[james1976]

DMX is thinking 6-10 western iowa and mix/frz rain central and east. SUCK.

[Money]

NAM is coming in SE fyi. Precip is def way SE and colder air in the MW at HR 39 compared to 6z 45. 

[Money]

1000.3 in SW ARK at HR 42

[Money]

Lots of ice...and more precip on 12z compared to 6z. 

[bud2380]

Nam is a total ice fest. If you look at the snow map on instant weather maps and don't understand why the nam shows so little snow it's because it shows tons of sleet and freezing rain. Hope that isn't the case

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

There is more snow in Nebraska and Minnesota after this above though

[Money]

Nam is a total ice fest. If you look at the snow map on instant weather maps and don't understand why the nam shows so little snow it's because it shows tons of sleet and freezing rain. Hope that isn't the case

Over 1-1.25 qpf all over Iowa and southern wi and pretty sure most of it is either sleet or fz

 

Looks like the brunt of it comes at dark as well

[Money]

The thing I don't understand on the NAM runs is why does the low go NW?

 

Here's a perfect example of it:

 

HR 57

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015122612/namconus_ref_frzn_us_19.png

 

1002 L in S. MO

 

And then

 

HR 63:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015122612/namconus_ref_frzn_us_21.png

 

So, it went from S. MO to SW Iowa in 6 hours?

[bud2380]

[jcwxguy]

Goes from double barrel on 57 to just one at 63. That would be great if that was all snow bud,too bad it includes sleet

[gosaints]

Goes from double barrel on 57 to just one at 63

Seems like it does it a couple times

[Money]

None of the otter models does that correct?

[Money]

btw nam also showing 50-55 mph wind gusts with the sleet/fzr

 

Not a good run if you don't like ice

[bud2380]

Well the hires nam doesn't make sense. It actually filters in cold air as the low arrives in Iowa and turns all the precip surrounding the low to snow. That is where much of that accumulation in eastern Iowa comes from. File that one under I'll believe that when I see it.

[jcwxguy]

nws GID

[Money]

Madison Bufkit:

 

151228/1900Z  55  08021KT  29.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 87| 13

151228/2000Z  56  08021KT  29.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 61| 39

151228/2100Z  57  08022KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.01|| 0.03    0| 45| 55

151228/2200Z  58  08022KT  29.7F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.03|| 0.038    0:1|  0.0|| 0.06|| 0.04|| 0.07    0| 31| 69

151228/2300Z  59  08023KT  29.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.11|| 0.124    0:1|  0.0|| 0.10|| 0.15|| 0.19    0| 18| 82

151229/0000Z  60  08024KT  29.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.10|| 0.103    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.24|| 0.30    0| 12| 88

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  61  08026KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.175    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.43|| 0.47    0|  9| 91

151229/0200Z  62  08026KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.064    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.50|| 0.54    0|  1| 99

151229/0300Z  63  09024KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.201    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.71|| 0.74    0|  0|100

151229/0400Z  64  10023KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.71|| 0.79    0|  0|100

[Money]

Cedar Rapids:

 

151228/1300Z  49  07018KT  29.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 16| 84

151228/1400Z  50  07019KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01    0| 18| 82

151228/1500Z  51  07022KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02    0|  6| 94

151228/1600Z  52  07022KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03    0|  0|100

151228/1700Z  53  07022KT  30.3F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.07    0|  0|100

151228/1800Z  54  07023KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.14    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151228/1900Z  55  08023KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.090    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.23    0|  0|100

151228/2000Z  56  08025KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.191    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 0.42    0|  0|100

151228/2100Z  57  08025KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.115    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.56|| 0.54    0|  0|100

151228/2200Z  58  09022KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.112    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.68|| 0.65    0|  0|100

[Money]

Lincoln: 

 

151228/1700Z  53  03015KT  27.2F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.116    0:1|  0.0|| 0.64|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|100|  0

151228/1800Z  54  03017KT  28.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.088    3:1|  0.3|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.41   32| 68|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151228/1900Z  55  03015KT  28.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    5:1|  0.8|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0

151228/2000Z  56  03013KT  29.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    5:1|  1.1|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

151228/2100Z  57  02013KT  30.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    5:1|  1.3|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.55  100|  0|  0

151228/2200Z  58  02013KT  30.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    5:1|  1.4|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0

151228/2300Z  59  02014KT  30.5F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    6:1|  1.7|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0

151229/0000Z  60  02013KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    7:1|  2.3|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  61  01011KT  29.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    7:1|  2.6|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.68  100|  0|  0

151229/0200Z  62  36010KT  28.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  3.2|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.72  100|  0|  0

151229/0300Z  63  35009KT  28.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    8:1|  3.4|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0

151229/0400Z  64  35008KT  28.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    8:1|  3.5|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0

151229/0500Z  65  33007KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    8:1|  3.5|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0

151229/0600Z  66  31008KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1|  3.5|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  67  30009KT  27.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1|  3.6|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0

151229/0800Z  68  29010KT  26.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1|  3.6|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0

151229/0900Z  69  29010KT  24.3F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1|  3.6|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0

151229/1000Z  70  29010KT  22.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  3.6|| 0.76|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0

[Money]

Rochester: 

 

151228/1900Z  55  08019KT  24.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

151228/2000Z  56  08021KT  26.0F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|100|  0

151228/2100Z  57  08022KT  25.8F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|100|  0

151228/2200Z  58  08022KT  26.5F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.11    0| 97|  3

151228/2300Z  59  08023KT  26.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.01|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.26|| 0.01|| 0.14    0| 78| 22

151229/0000Z  60  08023KT  27.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.33|| 0.02|| 0.18    0| 78| 22

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  61  08021KT  28.3F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.47|| 0.02|| 0.25    0| 92|  8

151229/0200Z  62  08019KT  28.1F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.60|| 0.02|| 0.31    0|100|  0

151229/0300Z  63  09015KT  28.5F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.37    0|100|  0

151229/0400Z  64  09010KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063    9:1|  0.5|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.43  100|  0|  0

151229/0500Z  65  07009KT  28.5F  SNOW   14:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098   12:1|  1.9|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

151229/0600Z  66  06009KT  28.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075   12:1|  2.8|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.60  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  67  06009KT  28.3F  SNOW   15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   12:1|  3.2|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.63  100|  0|  0

151229/0800Z  68  05007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   12:1|  3.3|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.64  100|  0|  0

151229/0900Z  69  04005KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   12:1|  3.4|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.66  100|  0|  0

151229/1000Z  70  02003KT  28.1F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   12:1|  3.5|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.66  100|  0|  0

151229/1100Z  71  VRB02KT  26.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   12:1|  3.5|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.66  100|  0|  0

151229/1200Z  72  VRB02KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1|  3.5|| 0.70|| 0.02|| 0.66    0|  0|  0

[CentralNebWeather]

I was just reading the dodge city scientific discussion. Theirlarge snowfall totals may be affected by sleet. That word may be said a lot in coming days

 

Nws dodge city:

 

 

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the aggressiveness

of the trowal with enhancing snow amounts across western Kansas

for Sunday and Monday. The operational NAM/sref are the most

aggressive and given how strong the system is, we would expect to

see a very impressive trowal, strong warm advection and lift at

mid levels and a precipitation shield that extends farther to the

northwest. This could result in much of the precipitation over

south central Kansas being in the form of sleet.

[Money]

Oshkosh: 

 

151228/2200Z  58  08020KT  28.5F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 97|  3

151228/2300Z  59  08020KT  28.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.02    0| 91|  9

151229/0000Z  60  09022KT  29.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.02|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.07    0| 64| 36

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  61  08023KT  29.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.02|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.14|| 0.04|| 0.11    0| 42| 58

151229/0200Z  62  08023KT  29.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.04|| 0.061    0:1|  0.0|| 0.19|| 0.08|| 0.17    0| 41| 59

151229/0300Z  63  08022KT  30.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.091    0:1|  0.0|| 0.24|| 0.15|| 0.26    0| 29| 71

151229/0400Z  64  08019KT  31.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.18|| 0.195    0:1|  0.0|| 0.28|| 0.33|| 0.45    0| 12| 88

151229/0500Z  65  09022KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165    0:1|  0.0|| 0.28|| 0.50|| 0.62    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z  66  10019KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.28|| 0.51|| 0.63    0|  0|100

 

So, looks like Madison, Cedar Rapids and here get hit pretty hard with FZR (0.5 + QPF) 

[Madtown]

Fun! Not...praying for a shift south by 75mi or so

[Money]

Milwaukee:

 

151228/1900Z  55  09023KT  30.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 50| 50

151228/2000Z  56  09023KT  31.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|  0

151228/2100Z  57  08025KT  31.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.01|| 0.02    0| 13| 87

151228/2200Z  58  08025KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.02    0|  6| 94

151228/2300Z  59  08025KT  32.8F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.11    0| 13| 87

151229/0000Z  60  08026KT  32.6F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.21    0| 17| 83

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  61  08025KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.39    0|  6| 94

151229/0200Z  62  08023KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.50    0|  0|100

151229/0300Z  63  08019KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.299    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.80    0|  0|100

151229/0400Z  64  09024KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 1.00    0|  0|100

151229/0500Z  65  11021KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 1.02    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z  66  12019KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 1.04    0|  0|100

 

 

Nothing like 33 and rain.

[Geos]

The thing I don't understand on the NAM runs is why does the low go NW?

 

Here's a perfect example of it:

 

HR 57

 

 

1002 L in S. MO

 

And then

 

HR 63:

 

 

So, it went from S. MO to SW Iowa in 6 hours?

 

 

The NAM struggles with track due to the convection sometimes. It thinks the convection will be push the lower farther NW.

Looks like it was trying to correct itself by moving into S. MO and then it had a hard time handling the situation.

[Money]

Gfs a tad slower through 33 but overall similar to 6z

[Geos]

If the 4km NAM is right, this area won't be in the precipitation very long.

Those east wind are really dry.

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

12z GFS -- MUY Bueno for C.Ia-- gotta be close to the sleet/mix to get the heaviest totals.

 

 

[Money]

Shows nearly a foot of snow in gosaints area and 6+ here

 

GFS isn't backing down

[gosaints]

Shows nearly a foot of snow in gosaints area and 6+ here

 

GFS isn't backing down

Sign me up

[East Dubzz]

Man, this looks like it could be bad if this turns out to be ice around here.

[WBadgersW]

I'll take what the GFS shows. Probably a good 3-6" deal.