12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[jaster220]

Anyone see CPC's hazards map from this afternoon? Totally opposite all the trends. Guessing the holiday crew were into the eggnog just a tad..

[Geos]

Anyone see CPC's hazards map from this afternoon? Totally opposite all the trends. Guessing the holiday crew were into the eggnog just a tad..

 

Hey maybe they know something we don't! Maybe their not drinking the euro-nam eggnog! lol

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hey maybe they know something we don't! Maybe their not drinking the euro-nam eggnog! lolhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

I think they're only reading your comments (only half-joking).  I rarely see you say something that goes against your backyard's prospects of gaining snow (I suppose I would as well if I lived in the region's version of Snowville).

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim flowers might be the most confident weather guy I have ever listened to. Latest video says storm will hit Omaha with sleet and snow or just snow on Monday. Says it is set. That is 3 days away. He has called this storm for a week. For my own personal wishes I hope the track is west and he will have to explain his miss. Just having some fun he seems like a great guy.

[jaster220]

Hey maybe they know something we don't! Maybe their not drinking the euro-nam eggnog! lolhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

Maybe it closes off quicker and wraps snow in, idk?  side note - is that all virga on radar over NE and IA? cuz that snow looks south of expected path. #graspingforhope

[Guest Snowball]

Ice pellets just south of lincoln. Several places reporting light snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Good snows northern and western Nebraska tonight

[CentralNebWeather]

We have had grauple off and on here

[Geos]

Jim flowers might be the most confident weather guy I have ever listened to. Latest video says storm will hit Omaha with sleet and snow or just snow on Monday. Says it is set. That is 3 days away. He has called this storm for a week. For my own personal wishes I hope the track is west and he will have to explain his miss. Just having some fun he seems like a great guy.

 

Everybody has to get a least one right.

 

---

 

Temps running below guidance tonight, I know that much.

[CentralNebWeather]

That's funny geos

[Geos]

That's funny geos

Hang on a sec. If he to explain a miss if the track is on the west side of guidance... You mean like the NAM? I'd toss that Model run personally.

[gosaints]

Nam looks even stronger early in the run

[Madtown]

Got to a high of 34 here. Predicted was 40

[Money]

2 mb stronger so far at hr 4 8 compared to 54 on 18z

[gosaints]

Not gonna budge. Similar thru 57

[CentralNebWeather]

I know I shouldn't but the nam has pulled me in. Please be correct. Sorry too much egg nog. Map will be coming

[gosaints]

I know I shouldn't but the nam has pulled me in. Please be correct. Sorry too much egg nog. Map will be coming

Its not much different than the euro...

[Money]

gosaints should know never trust the nam this far out

[CentralNebWeather]

Full 0z nam run.

[gosaints]

gosaints should know never trust the nam this far out

No kidding. its not that different than the euro. Euro might be wrong as well but you cant just toss the euro

[Money]

Nam is still a nasty ice storm for southern wi

[winterfreak]

The towel has been thrown in into. Pretty obvious where this is headed.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z euro was just east of me with heaviest band and this would be a jackpot. I know it is a long way out but if by tomorrow night this is still showing should I trust it? would make me feel better with a slight northwest shift with the euro

[Money]

12z euro was just east of me with heaviest band and this would be a jackpot. I know it is a long way out but if by tomorrow night this is still showing should I trust it? would make me feel better with a slight northwest shift with the euro

Lol

[Money]

gosaints really rooting for the NW shift for some reason

[gosaints]

gosaints really rooting for the NW shift for some reason

Not rooting for it at all. I would the 18z gfs solution myself. But until the EURO budges I dont buy it.

[Money]

Not rooting for it at all. I would the 18z gfs solution myself. But until the EURO budges I dont buy it.

 

The euro showed over 12-18 inches of snow in the Nov. snowstorm for you and I and it ended up going way south within the last 48 hours. Euro isn't the greatest model these days.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Nam is still a nasty ice storm for southern wi

 

That would be just textbook, a warm and wet pattern with little snow through most of December, an ice storm to usher in a pattern change, then cold and dry for the foreseeable future.

[Money]

That would be just textbook, a warm and wet pattern with little snow through most of December, an ice storm to usher in a pattern change, then cold and dry for the foreseeable future.

I think it might show a cold rain for you. I'll know in a bit once the bufkit Cobb data is updated

[gosaints]

The euro showed over 12-18 inches of snow in the Nov. snowstorm for you and I and it ended up going way south within the last 48 hours. Euro isn't the greatest model these days.

I know that as well. It really struggled at times the last 2 winters as well. It has been quite consistent with this.system however. Of course it could be wrong

[Geos]

NAM solution is wacko imo. Heaviest snow is almost in the Rocky mountains now!

[Madtown]

Let me know on MSN money. Thanks!

[Money]

Green Bay:

 

151229/0100Z  73  08021KT  27.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01    0| 81| 19

151229/0200Z  74  09021KT  28.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.02    0| 80| 20

151229/0300Z  75  08021KT  29.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.01|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.10|| 0.01|| 0.06    0| 76| 24

151229/0400Z  76  08021KT  30.1F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.15|| 0.03|| 0.106    0:1|  0.0|| 0.25|| 0.05|| 0.17    0| 71| 29

151229/0500Z  77  08019KT  30.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.09|| 0.08|| 0.122    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.13|| 0.29    0| 38| 62

151229/0600Z  78  07015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.184    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.32|| 0.47    0|  2| 98

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  79  09013KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.084    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.56    0|  1| 99

151229/0800Z  80  11016KT  32.3F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.58    0|  0|100

151229/0900Z  81  12017KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.62   69|  0| 31

151229/1000Z  82  14017KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.64   39|  0| 61

151229/1100Z  83  18017KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.64   30|  0| 70

151229/1200Z  84  19018KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.34|| 0.41|| 0.66   58|  0| 42

[Money]

Madison:

 

151228/2100Z  69  08021KT  28.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0| 51| 49

151228/2200Z  70  08024KT  28.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.06|| 0.070    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.06|| 0.07    0| 17| 83

151228/2300Z  71  08025KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.04|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.11|| 0.12    0| 12| 88

151229/0000Z  72  09025KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.12|| 0.13    0| 15| 85

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  73  08025KT  29.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.18|| 0.20    0|  4| 96

151229/0200Z  74  09023KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.127    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.32    0|  7| 93

151229/0300Z  75  10016KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.247    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.57    0|  7| 93

151229/0400Z  76  09019KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.250    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.82    0|  0|100

151229/0500Z  77  10019KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.87    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z  78  11017KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.91   82|  0| 18

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  79  13015KT  32.6F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.95    0|  0|100

151229/0800Z  80  16016KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.96   79|  0| 21

151229/0900Z  81  19017KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.97   75|  0| 25

151229/1000Z  82  20019KT  33.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.98   81|  0| 19

151229/1100Z  83  20018KT  32.4F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.98    0|  0|100

151229/1200Z  84  20015KT  32.1F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.32|| 0.99    0|  0|100

[Money]

Oshkosh:

 

151229/0000Z  72  08023KT  28.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.03    0| 50| 50

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  73  09023KT  27.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.06|| 0.02|| 0.05    0| 64| 36

151229/0200Z  74  09023KT  28.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.07|| 0.03|| 0.06    0| 59| 41

151229/0300Z  75  09023KT  29.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.09|| 0.04|| 0.077    0:1|  0.0|| 0.16|| 0.06|| 0.14    0| 56| 44

151229/0400Z  76  08023KT  30.1F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.06|| 0.074    0:1|  0.0|| 0.19|| 0.12|| 0.21    0| 21| 79

151229/0500Z  77  08016KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.183    0:1|  0.0|| 0.19|| 0.32|| 0.40    0|  6| 94

151229/0600Z  78  09014KT  31.4F  SNPL    2:1| 0.2|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.139    2:1|  0.2|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.54   18| 82|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  79  11017KT  32.4F  SNOW    4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.57   90|  0| 10

151229/0800Z  80  12017KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.60   59|  0| 41

151229/0900Z  81  15017KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.62   38|  0| 62

151229/1000Z  82  17017KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.62    0|  0|  0

151229/1100Z  83  19019KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.64   70|  0| 30

151229/1200Z  84  20020KT  33.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    2:1|  0.4|| 0.42|| 0.32|| 0.64    0|  0|  0

[Money]

Milwaukee:

 

151228/2200Z  70  09024KT  31.7F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.02|| 0.02    0| 14| 86

151228/2300Z  71  08027KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.084    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.10    0|  5| 95

151229/0000Z  72  09027KT  32.1F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.12    0| 11| 89

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  73  09026KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.17    0|  0|100

151229/0200Z  74  09025KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.24    0|  0|100

151229/0300Z  75  09026KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.191    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.43    0|  0|100

151229/0400Z  76  10024KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.63    0|  0|100

151229/0500Z  77  11017KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.82    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z  78  13018KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.87    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  79  14019KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.89    0|  0|100

151229/0800Z  80  16018KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.91    0|  0|100

151229/0900Z  81  19016KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.91   16|  0| 84

151229/1000Z  82  21018KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.91    0|  0|  0

151229/1100Z  83  20017KT  33.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.91    0|  0|  0

151229/1200Z  84  21016KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.11|| 0.91    0|  0|  0

[Maxim]

The euro showed over 12-18 inches of snow in the Nov. snowstorm for you and I and it ended up going way south within the last 48 hours. Euro isn't the greatest model these days.

as if the GFS is any better...

[Money]

Rochester: 

 

151228/2100Z  69  08021KT  24.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|100|  0

151228/2200Z  70  08022KT  25.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|100|  0

151228/2300Z  71  08024KT  26.3F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 0.12    0| 97|  3

151229/0000Z  72  09019KT  27.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.068    0:1|  0.0|| 0.37|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|100|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0100Z  73  08018KT  28.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.105    0:1|  0.0|| 0.58|| 0.00|| 0.29    0| 97|  3

151229/0200Z  74  09020KT  28.3F  SNOW   12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   12:1|  0.5|| 0.58|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0

151229/0300Z  75  09020KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060   12:1|  1.2|| 0.58|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0

151229/0400Z  76  08019KT  29.7F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.073    8:1|  1.5|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.47   47| 53|  0

151229/0500Z  77  10012KT  28.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063    8:1|  2.0|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

151229/0600Z  78  07008KT  28.5F  SNOW   19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   11:1|  3.4|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0700Z  79  05009KT  29.2F  SNOW   15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060   12:1|  4.3|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0

151229/0800Z  80  04007KT  29.6F  SNOW   15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072   12:1|  5.3|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

151229/0900Z  81  02006KT  29.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   12:1|  5.6|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0

151229/1000Z  82  36004KT  28.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   12:1|  5.8|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

151229/1100Z  83  34003KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   11:1|  5.9|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

151229/1200Z  84  VRB02KT  28.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   11:1|  6.0|| 0.66|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

[gosaints]

Thanks money

[bud2380]

not much difference on GFS vs 18z run thru 36 hours.