12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[gosaints]

Nam gives nothing to Lincoln or Omaha this run either and only 2 or so for gosaints area

The nam hasnt showed snow here on any substince on any run. Sleet fest

[Money]

What do you do if you're forecasting in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota areas? Such a wide spread yet and we are getting within 48 hrs

[Scott26]

What do you do if you're forecasting in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota areas? Such a wide spread yet and we are getting within 48 hrs

Put up winter storm watches and outline the uncertainty of the exact track.

[gosaints]

What do you do if you're forecasting in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota areas? Such a wide spread yet and we are getting within 48 hrs

The one thing about for here is no matter what model you look at it is high impact.

[Money]

The nam hasnt showed snow here on any substince on any run. Sleet fest

Wrong

 

12z had nearly 4 for you

[Money]

GFS for Rochster had 13 according to Cobb Data

[Scott26]

WSW watch for KC. Makes no sense to me based off of model trends the last two days. Really want to know what they're sniffing.

It makes sense perfectly. With the GFS/GGEM track the NW part of Missouri would have potentially more than 6 inches of snow. Even a farther west track like the Euro would put the NW part of the state in a wintry mix for the duration of the event. Remember that Winter Storm Watches are issued for only the potential of a high impact winter storm. They can always issue a winter storm advisory if needed instead of a warning.

[gosaints]

GFS for Rochster had 13 according to Cobb Data

Yep gfs has.been.snowiest. Ggem plenty ofsnow. Euro on the frindge. NAM has been sleet signal on soundings run after run

[Money]

Green Bay not issuing WSW this afternoon. They said:

 

"The position of the "Texas Slinger" track will significantly influence precip types and models vary enough on the track and timing of the system to reduce confidence in issuing a Winter Storm Watch."

 

That's all they said in the AFD issued a few mins ago

 

Also, MKE updated ice amounts now and have 0.1-0.25 ice accumulations mainly in the southern part of their forecast area.

[Geos]

WSW watch for KC. Makes no sense to me based off of model trends the last two days. Really want to know what they're sniffing.

 

They been siding with a particular model?

Wow.

By the sounds of that the metro will be for quite a winter storm.

 

202 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY

EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

 

* SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING

THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS

OF 2/10 OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

 

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.

 

* THE ICE COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

[Geos]

The NAM has issues, we all know that. These types of situations where there's a stubborn high out ahead of the low, is the worst for this model to try to decipher.

[ToastedRavs]

Sioux Falls went with the Winter storm Watch.  Looking less likely that any office will issue blizzard watch.  From FSD:

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES  ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.* WINDS / VISIBILITIES... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH  THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25  MPH RANGE MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE  SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE SIGNIFICANTLY  HAMPERING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

[winterfreak]

They been siding with a particular model?

Wow.

By the sounds of that the metro will be for quite a winter storm.

GFS seemed to be their choice guidance but even that shows hardly any winter precip in the city. NAM and EURO don't show any. Not sure what their logic is right now.

[Money]

4KM NAM shows this perfectly

 

HR 33: 995 in NW LA

 

HR 36: 997 in SW OK

 

Instead of going N or NE it goes back west

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122618/nam4km_ref_us_11.png

 

and then:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122618/nam4km_ref_us_12.png

[gosaints]

18z actually has more snow here than 12z

[Money]

4 KM NAM Snowfall:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122618/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png

[Geos]

^ If this was to become a cut off low, you would expect to see some retrograding. But the jet stream is there in the southern Plains - doesn't make any sense.

It's too strong.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm not really expecting much in the way of meaningful frozen precip here in Evanston less than 3 miles from the Lake. Wouldn't be surprised to see the temps never drop below 32 here, while areas 5+ miles from the lake get a decent amount of sleet/glaze before turning to all rain in the afternoon.

 

Of course I'll still most of the night Sunday glued to the radar/window. 

[bainbridgekid]

Watching WSU in the Sun Bowl in El Paso and it's snowing pretty good there right now.

 

Somewhat interesting since it wasn't supposed to change to snow there till around Midnight.

[NH4NU]

Winter Storm Watch for Omaha and Lincoln 

 

 

OAX

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY MONDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
NORTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CAUSING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

[OKwx2k4]

4 KM NAM Snowfall:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015122618/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png

Wow. Is the nam on crack? Lol

[gosaints]

5-11 in the point and click. La crosse all in it seems.

[Geos]

Lol, 4km NAM map is funny with 4" here. 20" in spots in SE KS!

[Money]

WSW issued for la crosse and Milwaukee areas

[Geos]

There's the winter storm watch for S WI.
 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTERY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

.A MIXED BAG OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO ONE INCH ON MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...STRONG EAST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 45 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND ICING MAY CAUSE
FALLING TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.

HENCE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING POSTED FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTERY MIX WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY NIGHT.

WIZ062>072-270515-
/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0004.151228T1500Z-151229T0300Z/
IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-
WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
313 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...FROM MID-MORNING MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TO 3 TO 6 INCHES TOWARD DARLINGTON AND DODGEVILLE.

* FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL POWER
OUTAGES FROM FALLING TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

 

[bud2380]

DVN and DMX still mulling things over it appears. DVN probably has the toughest forecast

[jcwxguy]

A lot of that "snow" is sleet or other freezing precip

[Money]

Gfs sticking with it's guns through 33

[Grizzcoat]

DVN and DMX still mulling things over it appears. DVN probably has the toughest forecast

DMX is nearly always Last. Has been since late 90's.

[Geos]

DMX is nearly always Last. Has been since late 90's.

 

I think the whole CWA should be in a watch right now. Work out the fine details tonight.

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

Takes the low near Chicago

[gosaints]

Model battle gonna go down to the wire. Fun

[winterfreak]

Uh 6"+ on that run hahaha the old 18z GFS at it again.

[hlcater]

yea, this is a model war now. The GFS holds its ground and the euro did too earlier

[WBadgersW]

I think its safe to say I'm not going to get much if any rain. Now is it going to be mostly ice or snow..

[CentralNebWeather]

As I sit here with advisories all around and we are missed again

[NH4NU]

Perfect Ark-La-Tex track! 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

[gabel23]

Gotta love the consensus between weather offices....just stay the course tonight EURO!!

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Perfect Ark-La-Tex track! 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

If this in fact stays the course, Jim Flowers must be given some props. He called this a week ago!!