January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Sure is a dream killer this far removed from the solstice.

 

I think PDX could still easily pull off mid-20s for highs with that kind of airmass. Lower with any cloud cover.

[High Desert Mat]

What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February?

Mid 20's at best I would assume. Single digits to low teens in my neck of the woods. It would rival what we had here in Redmond during the event two years ago around Feb 10th week. I had highs of 5-6 degrees for almost a week with 34" of snow on the ground

[Timmy]

Mid 20's at best I would assume. Single digits to low teens in my neck of the woods. It would rival what we had here in Redmond during the event two years ago around Feb 10th week. I had highs of 5-6 degrees for almost a week with 34" of snow on the ground

I want to say 850 temps were only around -13c then though at the peak.

[Deweydog]

Like bulbs retreating back into the ground cold?

Like bulbs shattering right in the socket cold.

[Jesse]

Like bulbs shattering right in the socket cold.

[Dave]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png

[High Desert Mat]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png

With that much cold air spilling out over the ocean on that run, it would be hard for there not to be surface lows forming off the waters. Here's to hoping 00z starts the trend.

[BLI snowman]

I want to say 850 temps were only around -13c then though at the peak.

 

Yeah, I think that's about right for PDX.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0205.php

 

With snow and strong CAA there's no reason why Portland couldn't still see a high in the mid 20s or lower this time of the year. It just depends on the setup. Portland pulled off a high of 29 on March 3, 1960 thanks to falling snow, strong east wind, and arctic air to the east.

[epiceast]

I guess we're heading into the second part of the model riding season. NWS needs to issue a mental health watch.

[Timmy]

Euro

[ShawniganLake]

Euro

Ensemble mean above freezing through next November. Buzz kill. Where is my -30 member?

[snow_wizard]

Interesting turn of events on the 18z GFS.  Not as outlandish as it may seem with some ensemble support and a strong maritime continent MJO wave strongly supports a significant cold period during week two.  It's quite interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble control model has been strongly hinting at a significant cold snap for the NW during week two on many of its runs.  The 12z ECMWF also trended westward with the ridge during week two.  something to watch for sure.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not out of the question.

[snow_wizard]

We had a significant hail storm here today and there is still some hail left in some spots.  Nice to see things getting fun again.

[Jesse]

Interesting turn of events on the 18z GFS.  Not as outlandish as it may seem with some ensemble support and a strong maritime continent MJO wave strongly supports a significant cold period during week two.  It's quite interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble control model has been strongly hinting at a significant cold snap for the NW during week two on many of its runs.  The 12z ECMWF also trended westward with the ridge during week two.  something to watch for sure.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not out of the question.

 

And now we count down to the rebuttal...

[Jesse]

We had a significant hail storm here today and there is still some hail left in some spots.  Nice to see things getting fun again.

 

Ouch, this one might get a reply too. Hail is VERY spring-like you know. Common. A sign of warmth if anything. It has been warm. My cherry blossoms are blooming. Here's a pic! Don't you dare find any enjoyment in this weather!!

[ShawniganLake]

And now we count down to the rebuttal...

Must be a long one. It has already been 2 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

I also see the WRF has gotten more bullish on lowland snow chances early next week.  Pretty favorable trends even in the shorter term.

 

One thing I will say for sure is it appears a major Arctic blast is going to effect parts of the United States during week two.  If by some chance it hits here it would be tremendously against Nino climo.  that would make it all the more sweet.  Off the top of my head I can't think of a single significant Feb cold snap during a Nino of any strength.

[Timmy]

Heard a report of snow

Mixing in already in Vernonia. Could be snowing at my place tonight

[Jesse]

Heard a report of snow

Mixing in already in Vernonia. Could be snowing at my place tonight

I was surprised how quickly the airmass cooled down this afternoon. It was close to 50 at 11am. Now down to 39.8 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Touched a nerve I see.   Someone really hates warmth!   

 

 

Must be a long one. It has already been 2 minutes.

 

 

No rebuttal needed.   Caveats all around.   00Z GFS sure will be telling!  

 

If I had to bet money... I would say an arctic blast for the Midwest and chilly ridging and offshore flow in our little slice of paradise out here.  We will see.  

 

Just got home and there is a little hail still on the ground here as well.

[snow_wizard]

Touched a nerve I see.   Someone really hates warmth!   

 

 

 

 

No rebuttal needed.   Caveats all around.   00Z GFS sure will be telling!  

 

If I had to bet money... I would say an arctic blast for the Midwest and chilly ridging and offshore flow in our little slice of paradise out here.  We will see.  

 

Just got home and there is a little hail still on the ground here as well.

 

Apparently you have made your peace with this climate.  I remember a few years ago how much you loathed it.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently you have made your peace with this climate.  I remember a few years ago how much you loathed it.

 

I really have made peace with it... even in 2017 is another 2010.

 

We can move if we want.   Just don't want to live anywhere else right now.  

[Phil]

I also see the WRF has gotten more bullish on lowland snow chances early next week. Pretty favorable trends even in the shorter term.

 

One thing I will say for sure is it appears a major Arctic blast is going to effect parts of the United States during week two. If by some chance it hits here it would be tremendously against Nino climo. that would make it all the more sweet. Off the top of my head I can't think of a single significant Feb cold snap during a Nino of any strength.

Yeah, someone is going to get crushed in February.

 

The upcoming wave activity looks stronger, and different in nature, compared to the January event. The upcoming round is largely a result of (initially) destructive intraseasonal forcing under the seasonally progressive antecedent forcing (ENSO). Even without the destructive interference, a retrogression of the NPAC vortex would occur for the aforementioned reasons.

 

The January event evolved out of constructive intraseasonal interference, timed perfectly to allow for a dual Eurasian/North Pacific wavebreak that fought the PV.

[BLI snowman]

I also see the WRF has gotten more bullish on lowland snow chances early next week.  Pretty favorable trends even in the shorter term.

 

One thing I will say for sure is it appears a major Arctic blast is going to effect parts of the United States during week two.  If by some chance it hits here it would be tremendously against Nino climo.  that would make it all the more sweet.  Off the top of my head I can't think of a single significant Feb cold snap during a Nino of any strength.

 

Since ENSO data started in 1871, only February 1995, February 1905, and February 1900 fit the bill and managed subfreezing highs at Portland or Seattle with an El Nino.

 

That's 3 times in 140 years. It's obviously about 100% more common in a Nina February. 

[snow_wizard]

This really makes me suspicious of a big Western ridge.  This MJO placement has brought troughs every time it has happened this winter, and normally does in other years also.  also very destructive to El Nino.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Since ENSO data started in 1871, only February 1995, February 1905, and February 1900 fit the bill and managed subfreezing highs at Portland or Seattle with an El Nino.

 

That's 3 times in 140 years. It's obviously about 100% more common in a Nina February. 

 

I totally forgot about 1995 and haven't looked too closely at the other two.  What the 18z GFS is showing would be truly historic for this ENSO state.

[Phil]

Careful with those phase diagrams, Jim. They're easily contaminated by stagnant forcing, off-equator forcing, as well as CCKW activity.

 

Also, intraseasonal/MJO forcing will affect the mid-latitude circulations differently depending on the ENSO/QBO/PV state, particularly in a year as anomalous as this one, FWIW.

[BLI snowman]

I totally forgot about 1995 and haven't looked too closely at the other two.  What the 18z GFS is showing would be truly historic for this ENSO state.

 

February is the point of the year where the ENSO state is the most crucial and influential. It's impressive how consistent our weather tends to be with it, even going back to the cold era. 

[TT-SEA]

Since ENSO data started in 1871, only February 1995, February 1905, and February 1900 fit the bill and managed subfreezing highs at Portland or Seattle with an El Nino.

 

That's 3 times in 140 years. It's obviously about 100% more common in a Nina February. 

 

What dates in February 1900?

 

February 1905 was a good event... 28 for a high at Snoqualmie Falls on 2/11/1905.

 

And what an incredible summer in 1905.   Long been one of my favorite historical summers.

[BLI snowman]

What dates in February 1900?

 

February 1905 was a good event... 28 for a high at Snoqualmie Falls on 2/11/1905.

 

And what an incredible summer in 1905.   Long been one of my favorite historical summers.

 

It was the middle of the month in 1900. Portland had a 24/19 day on February 15 and 29/20 on February 16. 

[Phil]

This is a more realistic multi-boundary depiction of the MJO:

 

[Jesse]

Apparently you have made your peace with this climate. I remember a few years ago how much you loathed it.

Probably wasn't too much of a hardship during two of our warmest years on record.

[TT-SEA]

It was the middle of the month in 1900. Portland had a 24/19 day on February 15 and 29/20 on February 16. 

 

 

March of 1900 was crazy nice.   2 weeks straight with highs in the 70s here.   Even a couple times reaching 80.   That is nuts.

 

And the entire summer of 1900 was really good.  

[Deweydog]

No snow here yet...

[GHweatherChris]

Any spring or summer talk should be in the banter thread, beings it is winter and all.

[TT-SEA]

Any spring or summer talk should be in the banter thread, beings it is winter and all.

 

 

We look ahead.   We talk about winter all summer long.

[GHweatherChris]

You look ahead.

 

The only season that most of us look forward to is winter, hoping for what seems like the impossible.

[Deweydog]

You look ahead.

 

The only season that most of us look forward to is winter, hoping for what seems like the impossible.

Sad.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently you have made your peace with this climate.  I remember a few years ago how much you loathed it.

 

I have made peace even in an increasingly wet regime this decade.   Looking back at calendar years for SEA (that is how its shown on WRCC):

 

-10 year period from 2000-2009 had only 1 year above 40 inches of precipitation.

 

-Since 2009 there has been 4 out of 6 years with more than 40 inches of precipitation... including 48+ inches in 2012 and 2014.

 

For comparison... from 1960-1990 there was only 8 years with more than 40 inches in a 30 year span.    

 

Its been a very wet decade here.    Probably a sign of things to come with a warming climate. 

[TT-SEA]

You look ahead.

 

The only season that most of us look forward to is winter, hoping for what seems like the impossible.

 

Seems silly.  

 

Spread the love to all seasons.