Geos Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The AO is over -2, and the NAO is now neutral - I wonder if the models will be influenced by those factors and change the track of this thing? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 The AO is over -2, and the NAO is now neutral - I wonder if the models will be influenced by those factors and change the track of this thing?Shortwave should be over california tomorrow morning. I could see it coming southeast some Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ratios look terrible Kuchera is spitting out less snow than 10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Creator of the thread should expand the date until the 10th. Unless you want to create a separate thread for the second wave. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 I was just going to post on this thought and maybe you should separate these systems. Sure I can do that. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Alright new topic started for the panhandler. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1143-19-110-panhandler/ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wondering if there might be more of ice threat ahead of the rain tomorrow. NAM holding temps near freezing for awhile tomorrow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 On todays ADF from GRR they are not all the impressed with the lake effect set up for next week and it looks like this cold will be just a short shot of a few days (more or less) here is the GRR ADF for the Saturday to Wednesday next week.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 OUR MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TRANSITION OF PCPN TYPE IN THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD START OUT WITH JUST REGULAR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SAT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. A SOLID WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE SERIES OF NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR CHANGE OVER THE RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SRN STREAM OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ENTIRELY SUN MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY SUN AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH NEXT WED. H850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 TO -22C BY 12Z MON. EVEN THOUGH LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...IT DOES NOT INITIALLY LOOK TOO INTIMIDATING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE NRN JET CORE DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE STILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH W/NW FLOW BEING FAVORED ON MON...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW. LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUE...WE WILL LIKELY SE SOME GOOD ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR SW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. WE WILL SEE A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TAKING THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE AND DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT THAT TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TREND DOWN SOME ON WED. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND WE SEE SOME SFC RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A RESULT AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY WILL WANE A BIT. INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -20C OR SO STILL BEHIND THE TUE WAVE...EVENTUALLY MODIFYING AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 On todays ADF from GRR they are not all the impressed with the lake effect set up for next week and it looks like this cold will be just a short shot of a few days (more or less) here is the GRR ADF for the Saturday to Wednesday next week.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 6 2016 OUR MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE TRANSITION OF PCPN TYPE IN THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD START OUT WITH JUST REGULAR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SAT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. A SOLID WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE SERIES OF NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR CHANGE OVER THE RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SRN STREAM OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ENTIRELY SUN MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RAMP UP BY SUN AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH NEXT WED. H850 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 TO -22C BY 12Z MON. EVEN THOUGH LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...IT DOES NOT INITIALLY LOOK TOO INTIMIDATING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AS THE NRN JET CORE DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE STILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH W/NW FLOW BEING FAVORED ON MON...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SW. LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUE...WE WILL LIKELY SE SOME GOOD ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR SW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. WE WILL SEE A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TAKING THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE AND DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT THAT TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN TREND DOWN SOME ON WED. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND WE SEE SOME SFC RIDGING BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A RESULT AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY WILL WANE A BIT. INSTABILITY WILL STILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -20C OR SO STILL BEHIND THE TUE WAVE...EVENTUALLY MODIFYING AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. It looks like a couple day break from the Arctic air late next week and then another powerful surge comes in after that on the GFS. It's an el Niño winter, it would be continuous Arctic air flowing in.I think you will do pretty good with lake effect though. This may be Grand Rapids biggest lake effect event this month, so will have to watch to see how well they do - that's one of the tie breaker questions for the contest. Definitely looks like some good lapse rates over the lake late on Monday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't mind the look of the 0z nam for my location in central Nebraska. Close to 6 inches if it verifies. Local mets are saying 2-4 but locally higher under a heavier band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 System keeps on looking drier here. Would be nice to skip the rain altogether and go right to the snow afterwards. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nam is stronger so far through 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.Picture does not do it justice.. http://i1228.photobucket.com/albums/ee442/jcwxguy1/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2016-01-07-14-10-32.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.Picture does not do it justice..Awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 ginormous flakes in lincoln currently.Picture does not do it justice..Heck ya! The snow Gods have awaken...hope it stays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Very impressive bright banding showing up on the radar, returns up to 50DBZ. We're still rain but hopefully some of the big flakes can get pulled down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Shouldn't surprise me, but NWS Hastings really cutting back on snow amounts here. I was in an area to get 4 inches and locally more and now it is saying maybe an inch if lucky. For as great as the potential looks, it never seems to verify in the amounts that are forecasted. You would think one of these would go our way in Central Nebraska. On to the next storm hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Shouldn't surprise me, but NWS Hastings really cutting back on snow amounts here. I was in an area to get 4 inches and locally more and now it is saying maybe an inch if lucky. For as great as the potential looks, it never seems to verify in the amounts that are forecasted. You would think one of these would go our way in Central Nebraska. On to the next storm hopefully.They have been way off all year, not quite sure what the deal is. I was surprised to see how hard it snowed! It started off as graupel or snow grains and transitioned into huge snow flakes! I couldn't believe how big the flakes were! we received around 3" of snow in about an hour and a half! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Solid inch of.cement down here. Guessing we flip to rain later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Got at least 3" since yesterday afternoon, compacted to about 2" due to how wet and warm it is. I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like some of you guys out in E NE didn't do so bad after all with this storm. Still showing some good returns near OMA/LNK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I spoke way to soon again as usual. It started snowing fairly heavily here about 5 AM or so and was really coming down for a couple hours, and it is still snowing and supposed to for a couple more hours if radar verifies. I would say at least 2 inches or a little more with some wind. Our school is starting on time but many around us have late starts. Nice surprise in a disappointing season of near misses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 2 inches of concrete here overnight. Could pick up another inch this afternoon is it falls as snow.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 solid inch or two here depending on what part of town 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 This snow has been dry enough that there is some blowing going on here with a wind gusting to almost 25 mph. Stops snowing then a little band goes through. Off and on for the day it looks like with not much more accumulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 On the warm side the rainfall amounts have almost been non measurable. 0.01 so far. Glacier is holding steady. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 We received a solid 4" of snow. The first band yesterday afternoon laid down between 2-3" of snow and then over night we received another couple inches. Of course there was some compacting so it's hard to tell exactly how much I received. My snow depth is now at 7". I haven't seen a huge storm yet but that should come, we usually see our heaviest snow storms later in the winter. I just hope I can keep this snow on the ground, I'm going on three weeks with a snow depth greater than 2". Now bring on the cold! I must say, this is the first time I have had school called off and we weren't in any advisory or warning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here are some snow reports from the area. My official snow total comes from a person just northeast of town. He has been reporting for the NWS for years. I received 4.4" officially. Not a bad storm to say the least! 801NWUS53 KGID 081654LSRGIDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE1054 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0600 AM SNOW 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W01/08/2016 M1.5 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.0620 AM SNOW 2 SSE HASTINGS 40.56N 98.38W01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEE24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. CORRECTED FROM 1SSE TO BETTERREFLECT LOCATION.0630 AM SNOW BRADSHAW 40.88N 97.75W01/08/2016 M2.4 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER0648 AM SNOW 3 N YORK 40.91N 97.60W01/08/2016 M2.4 INCH YORK NE CO-OP OBSERVER0700 AM SNOW 1 S FAIRFIELD 40.42N 98.10W01/08/2016 M3.5 INCH CLAY NE COCORAHS0700 AM SNOW CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.05W01/08/2016 M3.2 INCH CLAY NE CO-OP OBSERVER0700 AM SNOW MCCOOL JUNCTION 40.74N 97.60W01/08/2016 E2.5 INCH YORK NE PUBLICPUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.0700 AM SNOW 3 NE SHELBY 41.22N 97.39W01/08/2016 M4.4 INCH POLK NE CO-OP OBSERVER0700 AM SNOW 2 NW OHIOWA 40.43N 97.48W01/08/2016 M3.0 INCH FILLMORE NE COCORAHS0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW TOBIAS 40.41N 97.37W01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH FILLMORE NE COCORAHS0700 AM SNOW 4 SSE HILDRETH 40.28N 99.02W01/08/2016 M2.5 INCH FRANKLIN NE COCORAHS0700 AM SNOW 4 SW BLADEN 40.28N 98.65W01/08/2016 M2.0 INCH WEBSTER NE COCORAHS0800 AM SNOW 3 SE HASTINGS 40.55N 98.35W01/08/2016 M3.1 INCH ADAMS NE NWS EMPLOYEESOUTH SIDE OF HASTINGS HAD ROUGHLY TWICE AS MUCH SNOW ASOFFICIAL OB AT NWS OFFICE JUST NORTH OF TOWN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Probably the craziest thing from this storm was accuweather was spot on! They had my area receiving 3-6" of snow, and that was in their forecast 4 days ago!! Might have to start trusting in-accuweather!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Another band has developed over me, snowing at a good rate. This has been the strangest storm, was disappointed last night and pleasantly surprised all day today. I am looking out my classroom window and snow is blowing off the roof and the lot looks treacherous. I will post pictures later this evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Might have to start trusting in-accuweather!! umm no LOL But now that i think about it, their forecast lately has been better then years past 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I hate to admit it also, but accuweather has been closer than NWS Hastings in recent storms, usually alot less, but this was close to spot on. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks like a few hours of mood flakes setting in here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Congrats on the snow. Nice pictures Gabel.Glad this system delivered some snow and wasn't a total waste. Only 0.03" of rain to boot here. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 A few pictures from the snow today in Holdrege Nebraska. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sneaking up on 3 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Nice little snow. Roads and streets are really slick. Just got back from jv basketball game and slid several times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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