1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[gosaints]

The GFS isnt the king big time step towards other guidance

[Tom]

00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I like

 

 

[winterfreak]

Man just no luck with moisture out this way.

[Money]

00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I like

Nearly 6 for here as well

[Maxim]

seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.

[Tom]

00z GFS has no such coastal low development...much better run...continues to head in the right direction and model errors getting better sampling.

[Scott26]

seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.

Want to use some science to back yourself up?

[Tom]

seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.

Seriously, why in the world would you say this???  Way to early to make a call that ORD = DAB

[gosaints]

seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.

Somebody will.  Figuring out who will be the challenge

[Iowawx]

There's no way I get any snow from this in Eastern Iowa. Bare ground with cold temps it is I guess.

[Tom]

Want to use some science to back yourself up?

Please school him...

[gosaints]

Seriously, why in the world would you say this???  Way to early to make a call that ORD = DAB

So we would respond to him

[Tony]

final call for ORD: DAB

 

Models are overdoing the snow totals. Cold air doesn't come in fast enough.

Good luck with that call

[Tom]

So we would respond to him

Agree, to some point...it gets annoying when his Bias's get in the way and cloud his judgement

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f072/6hkucherasnowconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f078/6hkucherasnowconus.png

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f090/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[Geos]

GFS has a more wider band of snow this run for sure.

[Tom]

That run on the GFS would produce some Lehs in WI/IL side...might need it to be a bit colder though..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_T850_ncus_14.png

[Iowawx]

That run on the GFS would produce some Lehs in WI/IL side...might need it to be a bit colder though..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_T850_ncus_14.png

Tom, can this thing shift NW? Or will that high keep it too far south to reach Iowa?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.

 

I don't question your thoughts normally, but this one I'm not agreeing on, way too early to sound so confident on this.

[Geos]

Using the Kuchera ratios.

 

[Tom]

Tom, can this thing shift NW? Or will that high keep it too far south to reach Iowa?

HP is over powering this system from shifting to far NW into IA IMO...

 

00z GFS is also getting a little slower over the last two 12z/00z runs.

[hlcater]

thats irritating... arctic air with bare ground.

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

[Tom]

First time I'm noticing at 500mb the GFS is starting to go neg tilt once the system crosses over into IN.

[Tony]

Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm

[winterfreak]

So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far.

[Tom]

Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm

This may be the first storm we are tracking this season that does not occlude while heading up towards the Lakes region.  NAM may do a better job with a dynamic system but more or less when within 36 hours.

[gosaints]

Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm

The NAM GGEM and GFS are pretty in step at this stage.  GGEM might be a little slower bring the cold?? Not sure on the the B/W maps are hard to get a read on

[Money]

So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far.

 

smh

[Geos]

So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far.

 

Maybe the snow shield can widen out some more and get into your area a bit better.

[Tom]

At HR 81 on the GFS, it tries doing what the NAM was doing much earlier and begins separating the energy and creating a double barrel low near OH/NY.  IF it maintains the energy, it will be even stronger looking as it heads up towards DTW.

[winterfreak]

smh

What?

[Tom]

Maybe the snow shield can widen out some more and get into your area a bit better.

Agree, I expect it to fill in over the coming 2 days of runs.

[gosaints]

What?

He doesnt think you should whine about not getting snow.  I wouldnt worry about we have all been there before.  If he was sitting in your shoes this winter he would feel and post much the same

[WildWisconsinWeather]

What?

 

Money thinks no one has the right to complain.  I suppose something to keep in mind though is KC doesn't have nearly the snow climo cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit and Minneapolis do, so it wouldn't be that surprising to have a difficult time hitting the 6" threshold for a storm.

[Tom]

What?

SMH = "Shaking my Head"...I think maybe we should give the models more time and allow more patience as this is a dynamic situation.  You and I both know that things change even within 24-48 hours.

[hlcater]

all for widening the snow shield over here lol... the snow swath did seem kinda narrow to me. anyone else also notice that when compared to similar systems?

[Geos]

We got a little room for changes still. By 12z run Friday, will have a really good idea where the snowband will be.

Wouldn't be surprised if blizzard conditions are possible for a short time on the backside of the low.

 

GGEM 84 hours.

 

[james1976]

Someone is gonna get hit! Starting to look like a phasing system. Good call Tom made a couple days ago. All the pieces are lining up now.