January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever.

 

Only now, we don't have to deal with the giant PV over Greenland. So this is a better setup than December, assuming it verifies.

 

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpg

[snow_wizard]

We've had lots of snow in February's past. The only difference is it hasn't happend in years. I was already on board yesterday or the day before that something was going to happen for the first week of Feb. I don't necessarily mean it was going to Snow, but I meant we'd get cold or modified or full Arctic air.

 

Some places in the NW interior had 2 feet or better in 2011.  And that was way later than this will be.  Amazing how shocked the average person around here is when a cold snap makes them realize that February is a winter month.  In the past we got hit pretty regularly in that month.

[snow_wizard]

Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever:

 

[img[http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpg[/img]

 

What a thing of beauty.  Blocked up to the pole.  This is our chance.  I hope we can hit the pay station this time.

 

If that verifies it appears Cal will finally get some much needed southern branch rainfall.  It is interesting to note the placement of the massive positive anomalies is nearly identical to what the ECMWF ensemble has been showing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever.

 

Only now, we don't have to deal with the giant PV over Greenland. So this is a better setup than December, assuming it verifies.

 

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpg

Very promising

[westcoastexpat]

I disagree. The chances of a 4"+ snowfall go up dramatically in the PNW lowlands with arctic air around. Shortwaves producing precipitation won't be picked up well (if at all) out at this range..we need to focus on getting the cold air in.

 

This isn't Minnesota, where arctic air is nearly irrelevant to snowfall.

 

Tell that to December 2013.

 

Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage. I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards.

 

To clarify, I would be surprised if we didn't all see snow, but I am very doubtful of a 4"+ event between now and the first week of February. After that, who knows. I hope so!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

What a thing of beauty.  Blocked up to the pole.  This is our chance.  I hope we can hit the pay station this time.

 

If that verifies it appears Cal will finally get some much needed southern branch rainfall.  It is interesting to note the placement of the massive positive anomalies is nearly identical to what the ECMWF ensemble has been showing.

As I recall, the Euro and GFS were well aligned back in December--in fact, you could have used the ensemble means as overlays for one another at one point--they were that close.  And they appear to be aligning well again.  I'm willing to bet on the cold at this point--we just need some moisture now to go with it.

[snow_wizard]

Tell that to December 2013.

 

Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage. I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards.

 

To clarify, I would be surprised if we didn't all see snow, but I am very doubtful of a 4"+ event between now and the first week of February. After that, who knows. I hope so!

Didn't you have like 7 inches of snow in December? Some people are hard to satisfy I guess. Incidentally...many ensemble members show snow at some point.

[snow_wizard]

As I recall, the Euro and GFS were well aligned back in December--in fact, you could have used the ensemble means as overlays for one another at one point--they were that close.  And they appear to be aligning well again.  I'm willing to bet on the cold at this point--we just need some moisture now to go with it.

Agreed. From an historic perspective early Feb cold waves are traditionally snowy.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I hope it snows so much the first week of February that I get sick of it.

[westcoastexpat]

Didn't you have like 7 inches of snow in December? Some people are hard to satisfy I guess. Incidentally...many ensemble members show snow at some point.

 

I did but it was very localized. Areas 20 minutes away from me saw a quarter of that.

[snow_wizard]

I hope it snows so much the first week of February that I get sick of it.

1916 or 1893 would work fine.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1916 or 1893 would work fine.

Yes, either one would make me sick of the snow!     

[Guest Winterdog]

Euro looks great!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO!

 

Day 7

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

Day 10

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

[Guest Winterdog]

It looks like a snow maker dropping down the coast that is bringing in the arctic air .

[Utrex]

Plot twist: high pressure splits; jet splits, aims for West coast! No wonder why models showed precipitation!

[snow_wizard]

Excellent ECMWF. 850mb temps are -10 over Seattle at day 10. The basic setup is already in place by day 5. Looks like it gets chilly before the month is over. Now we wait to see how the details start to unfold. This has huge potential.

[snow_wizard]

Plot twist: high pressure splits; jet splits, aims for West coast! No wonder why models showed precipitation!

The GFS ensemble looks very promising for rain in Cal in the 10 to 15 day period.

 

EDIT...You have to like the SE ridge showing up on the ECMWF at the end of the run.

[Phil]

Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage.

Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation.

 

 

I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards.

Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude..

 

On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth.

[snow_wizard]

The average low at my place for the past 11 days is 30.5. Still a shot to be a respectably cold Dec-Feb average this winter.

[Black Hole]

Lets try and be civil people. Share and discuss your opinion, but keep it reasonable.

 

I agree with the analysis of above average chances of arctic air. And having studied what brings the big snows to the PNW the pattern shown is exactly what you want. The jet digs SW offshore allowing the cold air to spill in and some overwater trajectory to build up surface lows offshore.

[Jesse]

Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!!

[Jesse]

Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation.

 

 

 

Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude..

 

On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth.

This. You are winning me over lately.

[Guest Winterdog]

This. You are winning me over lately.

Such strange bedfellows.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!!

That we are. Maybe this means we will get hit in January sometime soon. There is some history of good Febs one winter leading to good Jans the next. That is IF we can avoid a Nino.

[snow_wizard]

Delete this plz

They need to enable the ability for us to delete our own posts.

[snow_wizard]

Dramatic improvement on the Canadian ensemble also. I think this is going to happen!

[Parksvillewx]

CFS for the Feb 1st-6th timeframe.

 

[snow_wizard]

CFS for the Feb 1st-6th timeframe.

 

cfs.jpg

One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater.

[westcoastexpat]

Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation.

 

 

 

Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude..

 

On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth.

 

I haven't made any commentary on 10+ days out. My entire discussion, as stated, as been within the 10 day timeframe. If you're telling me that you see 4"+ in that time frame, please elaborate. I think it's unlikely. After that, again, as I said, who knows.

[snow_wizard]

I haven't made any commentary on 10+ days out. My entire discussion, as stated, as been within the 10 day timeframe. If you're telling me that you see 4"+ in that time frame, please elaborate. I think it's unlikely. After that, again, as I said, who knows.

There seems to be some indication that snow will be more likely once the cold air is in place and the pattern retrogrades a bit more. You can never rule out a surprise with the Arctic front though. Right now Arctic frontal passage seems to be in the 7 to 9 day period. Going to take some time to nail that down.

[50shadesofvan]

NAEFS probability for cooler than normal best so far...Starting to become more confident:

 

Next run tonight I'll expect to see widespread 70-80%

 

 

 

For comparison the probabilities for 8-12 days before our December cold snap:

 

[BLI snowman]

One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater.

 

We can actually share the cold pretty easily with TX/OK. Their biggest cold spells are often very significant here as well.

 

AL/GA/FL/SC not so much.

[snow_wizard]

We can actually share the cold pretty easily with TX/OK. Their biggest cold spells are often very significant here as well.

 

AL/GA/FL/SC not so much.

No question that was true in 1899. This could be the coldest winter for the United States as whole in a good many years if everything goes as planned.

[snow_wizard]

NAEFS probability for cooler than normal best so far...Starting to become more confident:

 

Next run tonight I'll expect to see widespread 70-80%

 

 

 

For comparison the probabilities for 8-12 days before our December cold snap:

 

I would certainly expect the chances go way up over the next day or two. The Canadian ensemble looked pretty darn good today.

[westiztehbest]

Looking good.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble continues to improve.  One of the more striking things is how the timing is moving up.  By hour 156 things look pretty cold.  Certainly looks like possible snow with the amount of water trajectory.

 

[weather girl]

Nice work, you guys. I look forward to reading more of everybody's insights.

[snow_wizard]

The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA.

 

[snow_wizard]

Nice work, you guys. I look forward to reading more of everybody's insights.

 

Welcome back!