January 2014 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

The 12z ensembles weren't bad. Too bad the Euro is getting off the train now. Wait and see...

 

Off what train?  

 

Curb the negativity, for Christ's sake...

[TheBigOne]

So a positive AO keeps artic air locked into Canada and a -AO causes it to *spill* to the deep south?  Does this concide with other factors like if it's a -AO and a negative NAO combined that will make it more likely for the East coast to be targeted with a PV? 

 

On the other hand if there is a -AO and a -PNA on the West Coast which is the best coast we will have ours?

 

Anyways what is the status of the PNA? I once found a site that had all the ocean telecommunications in one index so I could access whatever I wanted but now when looking for it I couldn't find it. 

[TT-SEA]

I made an educated guess based on last night's Euro ensembles. Didn't work out. What if it had? Would I suddenly be a prophetic genius? The reasoning behind the guess was the same, regardless. I didn't make it just because.

 

If the Euro ensembles had been way worse than the op last night I would have predicted the opposite.

 

 

Doubt it.

 

You would have found something else cold-looking and based your 'positive' forecast on that instead.  

 

How could you come on here and predict that the ECMWF would trend worse before it came out?     That would be thinking negative!      You eliminate half the options when forcing yourself to think and say only positive things when talking about the weather.    Just silly since nature don't play that way.   

 

This is at the heart of my issue with Jim... only say positive things.   Skew everything to make it look so great... and then ignore when you are wrong and move on to the next thing.    Then when 1 out of 10 hits you call yourself a great forecaster and continue on.     And then endlessly criticize everyone on here for being so negative and depressing when they discuss reality.   This forum becomes just a pulpit for cold thinking.

 

Remember when he was so angry that I was pessimistic about Christmas?   He was telling me that its silly to be down about one bad week in a great winter.   It was going to turn around immediately after.    That was over a month ago.     Good pep talk... but not logical when looking back.    I have still loved the outcome just for a different reason.

[Phil]

So a positive AO keeps artic air locked into Canada and a -AO causes it to *spill* to the deep south? Does this concide with other factors like if it's a -AO and a negative NAO combined that will make it more likely for the East coast to be targeted with a PV?

 

On the other hand if there is a -AO and a -PNA on the West Coast which is the best coast we will have ours?

 

Anyways what is the status of the PNA? I once found a site that had all the ocean telecommunications in one index so I could access whatever I wanted but now when looking for it I couldn't find it.

It's a complicated affair. It doesn't matter whether the overall NAM is + or -, but rather the strength/location of the PV and the height of the PV column.

 

The tropospheric circulation is determined by a number of factors, including tropical forcings, stratospheric forcings, and solar forcings.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What happened to the weather forum?  Its just the weather.

[TT-SEA]

All that being said... I seem to remember the models went completely off the rails before the December event and then came back with a vengeance.

 

Something to watch for... have to be honest about the possibilities.     Its not all negative either.    There is a still chance!

[Gradient Keeper]

All that being said... I seem to remember the models went completely off the rails before the December event and then came back with a vengeance.

 

Something to watch for... have to be honest about the possibilities.     Its not all negative either.    There is a still chance!

Exactly.

[Phil]

If it makes you guys feel any better, I'm still well below average in snowfall so far, and I have patches of bare grass showing. In fact, I'm running behind 2011-12..

 

Also, the circulation pattern over the Arctic has been fantastic for ice growth! The -DA circulation is pushing the multi-year ice west into the Beaufort Sea. We now have multi-year ice slamming into the Russian coast for the first time in at least a decade:

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[TT-SEA]

More good news... the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is considerably better than the operational run for next week.

 

At 216 hours... the 850mb temp ensemble mean at SEA is about -6C and on the operational run its about -2C

[Gradient Keeper]

More good news... the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is considerably better than the operational run for next week.

 

I can't see the details like 850mb temps but it looks better at the 500mb level.

Good to hear. Thanks for posting such positively amidst a sea of negative turds.

[TT-SEA]

Good to hear. Thanks for posting such positively amidst a sea of negative turds.

 

 

I did find the 850mb temp data... changed my post after you quoted me.

[Guest Monty67]

More good news... the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is considerably better than the operational run for next week.

 

At 216 hours... the 850mb temp ensemble mean at SEA is about -6C and on the operational run its about -2C

Where do you get the maps/temps for the euro ensemble mean?

[bainbridgekid]

Where do you get the maps/temps for the euro ensemble mean?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014012812!!/

[TT-SEA]

Where do you get the maps/temps for the euro ensemble mean?

 

 

Here:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014012812!!/

 

I later noticed they had a 850mb temp option on the left.

[stuffradio]

Not sure about the Groundhog, but I know what the fox says....

 

 

I specifically tailored my post to reference that song.

[Guest Monty67]

Here:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014012812!!/

 

I later noticed they had a 850mb temp option on the left.

Thanks to you both, I forgot they had ensemble charts on there.

[Jesse]

Doubt it.

 

You would have found something else cold-looking and based your 'positive' forecast on that instead.

 

How could you come on here and predict that the ECMWF would trend worse before it came out? That would be thinking negative! You eliminate half the options when forcing yourself to think and say only positive things when talking about the weather. Just silly since nature don't play that way.

 

This is at the heart of my issue with Jim... only say positive things. Skew everything to make it look so great... and then ignore when you are wrong and move on to the next thing. Then when 1 out of 10 hits you call yourself a great forecaster and continue on. And then endlessly criticize everyone on here for being so negative and depressing when they discuss reality. This forum becomes just a pulpit for cold thinking.

 

Remember when he was so angry that I was pessimistic about Christmas? He was telling me that its silly to be down about one bad week in a great winter. It was going to turn around immediately after. That was over a month ago. Good pep talk... but not logical when looking back. I have still loved the outcome just for a different reason.

Boring.

[Phil]

The "Sun Angle" argument gets old after five years. Tell this to those who live in the mid west or the mid Atlantic, when a mid February arctic event is baring down. I know that the sun can influence marginal events, but the upper atmospheric heating doesn't destroy our chances until mid March.

Exactly. If anything, we have more cold air available now up north than we do n mid December.

[TT-SEA]

Boring.

 

Right.

 

Only say positive things!     This forum should only exist to delude ourselves in a fantasy world... not to understand the hard reality of nature and atmospheric science.  

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. If anything, you have more cold air available now than you did on December 15.

 

The sun angle begins to mitigate marginal situations when you are not deep in the bowels of all that available genuine cold air.     February is basically October in reverse for the sun angle.   That is why the average high slowly increases throughout the month.     

 

But if you get into some serious cold air... and better yet with precipitation... then it won't have much of an effect yet.    Unfortunately... we usually live in the margins out here.  

 

There are some notable exceptions though.    1989 is a great example.   15/8 here with a foot of snow on the ground.    Sun angle be damned then!

[HighlandExperience]

 

 

There are some notable exceptions though.    1989 is a great example.   15/8 here with a foot of snow on the ground.    Sun angle be damned then!

 

A March 1989 event would be awesome this year. Hopefully something like that happens in Feb. though =)

[luvssnow_spokane]

That what I've done.  He's pretty much nailed this winter.  

Then he took a dump on it, ate it and then came a licked your face.  How is that for a forecast?

[Guest Winterdog]

The 18Z is rotten to the core through 162hrs.

[Guest Monty67]

The 18Z is rotten to the core.

Yuck.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

_{18z looks to be following the euro.}

[HighlandExperience]

The 18Z is rotten to the core through 162hrs.

 

Currently 19 degrees in Birmingham, Alabama. This winter is depressing.

[brody]

I gotta say watching this slugfest of emotion andbitter rivalry among members is fascinating and downright ugly at the same time.

 

So much mud slinging about sun angle, analogs, bad and good model runs, temp departures etc. is pure gold from a dysfunctional standpoint.

 

With that said I feel there really is no need to get riled up over details that wont iron out until almost the last possible moment.

 

But to each their own

 

Let the poo flinging continue if it must

[Gradient Keeper]

Yikes

[Phil]

If the 18z GFS verifies the Great Lakes may set a record for ice coverage. That is crazy cold.

 

This has been the coldest winter I've ever experienced. My high temp once again failed to get above 0F today. Looks like we're going to get a break from the extreme cold, though.

[Guest Winterdog]

That pesky ridge at 135/140 sure hasn't been our friend this winter. It has blocked us from the rain all month and now it's shunting any chance of cold air to the east.

[TT-SEA]

If the 18z GFS verifies the Great Lakes may set a record for ice coverage. That is crazy cold.

 

This has been the coldest winter I've ever experienced. My high temp once again failed to get above 0F today. Looks like we're going to get a break from the extreme cold, though.

 

 

Awesome news!   I am so excited.    <_>

[Deweydog]

I wonder what Jim is wearing right now.  

[TT-SEA]

I wonder what Jim is wearing right now.  

 

 

Not sure... but he is super happy about whatever it is.    

[Snow]

I never really look at he 06z and 18z runs, they are less accurate.

[Phil]

Awesome news! I am so excited. <_>

 

I'm cool with swapping houses if you agree to pay my heating bill..

[Guest Winterdog]

I wonder what Jim is wearing right now.

Some of his morning breakfast I'm sure.

[Deweydog]

Some of his morning breakfast I'm sure.

 

Ewwww...

[TT-SEA]

I'm cool with swapping houses if you agree to pay my heating bill..

 

That is OK.

 

Unlike many others on here... I have loved this winter.    So quiet and enjoyable.    Seems like we have been outside all winter.   We are heading to Hawaii in 16 days and I am not even sick of winter yet... which I figured I would be at this point.    

 

Snow and cold or dry and sunny.     Either way I am happy.      

 

[Phil]

That is OK.

 

Unlike many others on here... I have loved this winter here. So quiet and enjoyable. Seems like we have been outside all winter. We are heading to Hawaii in 16 days and I am not even sick of winter yet... which I figured I would be at this point.

 

Snow and cold or dry and sunny. Either way I am happy.

 

Awesome. Where in, exactly? I visited to Kauai as a kid, and will never forget it.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome. Where in, exactly? I visited to Kauai as a kid, and will never forget it.

 

 

Going back to the Big Island this time around.