January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

18Z much colder.

 

Jim will be back tonight!

[HighlandExperience]

It's been a very tough year for the northern mountains, as I've said. I know loads of people who haven't even gone boarding this year. I've yet to see a Mt. Baker shot on my Facebook this season... shame. Nobody in BC is going!

 

Ya it has been tough, although Mt. Baker still has 74 inches at its base. Not the best year, but still pretty decent compared to many places.

 

Awesome to see some colder runs today!

[TT-SEA]

I am very happy with this little storm.

 

Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school.    They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight.

 

And lots of rain around the Seattle area.   Still pouring rain here.   Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month.    Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later.  

[bainbridgekid]

I am very happy with this little storm.

 

Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school.    They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight.

 

And lots of rain around the Seattle area.   Still pouring rain here.   Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month.    Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later.  

I've been happy with this storm as well. The mountain snow has been fun to watch and we've actually been shadowed up here so it's barely drizzled all day.

 

But there is simply no mechanism by which this storm overperforming could possibly affect the amount of rain we see a month from now.

 

You always tout the importance of remaining objective and grounded in our weather analysis, but your statements about wishing for more rain now to avoid being due for rain later simply are not supported by any evidence I have ever seen.

[50shadesofvan]

Just wrote this little piece: 

 

For those of you who like to like to put a lot of weight into super long range deterministic model output

http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/29/im-out-of-the-contest

[brody]

Yeah. It's very unprecedented, especially when you look at how little snow is on the Vancouver Island mountain range. Unbelievable:

 

Current Snow Depth.jpg

And to think they were worried about not enough snow for the 2010 winter games in Vancouver

 

Good thing they didnt hold them this year

[Poulsbo Snowman]

He rips on everyone else for being realistic.     He brings it on himself to some degree.   Dealing in reality is always the best way to go when trying to understand nature.

I don't think it's an issue with him being realistic or dealing with reality.  Let's face it--many are on here in the winter months because they like snow--nothing wrong with that.  And he interprets the models and other information he has at his disposal in such a manner that demonstrates a way to get what many most of the board wants.  He seldom says, "It's going to do this" or anything of the sort.  Rather, he provides a roadmap, if you will, of a process which could ultimately deliver the goods.

 

There's nothing wrong with that--and I don't think he needs to be put in his place for his efforts.  That said, I know most of the board gets along with him, and it's not necessarily ill-will that's directed to him.  But certainly can appear that way even if not intended.

 

I think he (and others who put in the effort) should get a pass.  I love reading his posts--and often times, you have good info yourself.  I would hate to see him run off (or anyone for that matter) simply because a few choose to dismiss his efforts.

 

On a lighter note, it looks like the Euro is behaving!

[TT-SEA]

I've been happy with this storm as well. The mountain snow has been fun to watch and we've actually been shadowed up here so it's barely drizzled all day.

 

But there is simply no mechanism by which this storm overperforming could possibly affect the amount of rain we see a month from now.

 

You always tout the importance of remaining objective and grounded in our weather analysis, but your statements about wishing for more rain now to avoid being due for rain later simply are not supported by any evidence I have ever seen.

 

 

Whatever.

 

Its just the law averages.    We have been over this a million times.   Nothing scientific or precise.  But if you have a bunch incredibly dry months then its more likely that you have a bunch of wet months eventually.     The more rain we get now... the more I feel better about our odds for spring and summer.     A very wet February and March would be great.    Cycles.   Does not always work... but the law of averages does apply to local weather.   We will snap back to normal over time.   That might be over 6 months or 6 years.     But it will happen.     Might as well get that process started in the winter and not in May.  

[Snow]

18z GFS looks very similar to 12z ECMWF with a L dropping from the NW and making landfall somewhere along the Oregon coast. Problem is that 18z GFS is even weaker with the low. Last time in early December the models picked up on this L rather quickly and never blinked. The best we can hope for is the models strengthening this L.

[bainbridgekid]

18z ensembles are definitely a bit better the 12z. Operational is also a couple degrees warmer than the ensemble mean.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

What a day here... 1.75 inches of rain and still coming down.    

 

I would take the scenario this January EVERY time.    Dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain... dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain.

 

MUCH better than getting the 7.25 inches that has fallen here this month at a rate of .25 per day.  

[Skagit Weather]

SEA almost up to 1 inch of rain.

 

I love it... get it all at once so its not such a dry month despite so many dry days.

 

 

I am very happy with this little storm.

 

Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school.    They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight.

 

And lots of rain around the Seattle area.   Still pouring rain here.   Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month.    Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later.  

 

 

Rainfall total of .80 last night here.

 

Now at 6.3 inches for the month and might end up over 7 inches with the wrap-around stuff tonight.      Not a dry month at all here. 

 

SEA is also over .80 which is even more meaningful to their monthly total which is solidly over 3 inches now.

 

 

 

What a day here... 1.75 inches of rain and still coming down.    

 

I would take the scenario this January EVERY time.    Dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain... dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain.

 

MUCH better than getting the 7.25 inches that has fallen here this month at a rate of .25 per day.  

Not that it matters because you are liberty to post whatever you want, but doesn't it get boring typing the exact same post one after another? It seems like at least four posts in three pages about how you like heavy rain as opposed to light rain would get a little tiring, but whatever. I am very happy to hear you are enjoying rain because it is nice to learn to live with the climate we are stuck in. Oh, and .83" here.

 

And I know the posts are out of order, but oh well.

[FroYoBro]

Whatever.

 

Its just the law averages.    We have been over this a million times.   Nothing scientific or precise.  But if you have a bunch incredibly dry months then its more likely that you have a bunch of wet months eventually.     The more rain we get now... the more I feel better about our odds for spring and summer.     A very wet February and March would be great.    Cycles.   Does not always work... but the law of averages does apply to local weather.   We will snap back to normal over time.   That might be over 6 months or 6 years.     But it will happen.     Might as well get that process started in the winter and not in May.  

But having one storm under or overperform has no bearing on future patterns. 

[TT-SEA]

But having one storm under or overperform has no bearing on future patterns. 

 

Of course not... not specifically.   

[FroYoBro]

The ski resorts on Mount Hood are getting some good snow this evening. Nice to see!

[bainbridgekid]

Of course not... not specifically.     Big picture.     Law of averages.           

 

I hate this argument.   You guys act like it could go 3 years without raining a drop here and we would still not be due to snap back with lots of rain.   Its all completely random.    Odds still exactly the same.   We swing around normal... the longer we stay on one side... the more likely it becomes that we swing to the other side.      

 

Its just common sense.      One storm... one month... one season... probably means nothing specifically.     Just playing the law of averages in the big picture.

It's pretty simple. I have yet to see any evidence to suggest that this statement is true. Until then, I see no reason to believe it.

 

I will also say that 99% of the time people refer to the Law of Averages it is a fallacy and based on anecdotal evidence that is not scientific. That or they are referring to the Law of Large Numbers (which is actually true) but involves no swinging back or being due.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

 

This debate is getting old on the forum, but I'd love to continue it in PM's or on Facebook. Like I said, I am open to changing my mind if I see some evidence.

[TT-SEA]

For the sake of people on here... we have been discussing it and bainbridge is going to look into the data.

 

I said that weather is not completely random like flipping a coin.    One factor in play is that weather moves around the Earth in a wavy train of ridges and troughs.   So a dry period under a ridge is more likely to be followed by a wetter period in a trough because its usually next in line.    That is different than saying its completely random.   Obviously this is not a hard and fast rule... but the concept is in play.

 

It is also likely to be more prominent at our latitude.    Father south ridges can get stuck and feed off the dry conditions.    And the timing of ridges and troughs is highly variable.

 

But I think it does play a role.

[FroYoBro]

For the sake of people on here... we have been discussing it and bainbridge is going to look into the data.

 

I said that weather is not completely random like flipping a coin.    One factor in play is that weather moves around the Earth in a wavy train of ridges and troughs.   So a dry period under a ridge is more likely to be followed by a wetter period in a trough because its usually next in line.    That is different than saying its completely random.   Obviously this is not a hard and fast rule... but the concept is in play.

 

It is also likely to be more prominent at our latitude.    Father south ridges can get stuck and feed off the dry conditions.    And the timing of ridges and troughs is highly variable.

 

But I think it does play a role.

You sure used a lot of words to basically say nothing. 

[TT-SEA]

You sure used a lot of words to basically say nothing. 

 

 

We have used even more on facebook to discuss!  

[AnthonyC]

We have used even more on facebook to discuss!  

 

I kind of want to know...how do you have so much time to spend on this forum?? You're on this site almost ALL day...do you work from home or something? 

[AnthonyC]

I'm not buying what the 12Z EURO is selling...looks way too awkward, and can't envision that much energy digging that far west.

 

You know what I've noticed this season (so far)...there are all these cut-off lows that keep screwing up the Eastern Pacific.  It's like, we get blocking off the coast...it starts to retrograde...but then a minor piece of energy comes through, turns into a cut-off low, and it screws up the retrogression potential.  It happened back just a few weeks ago...it looks like a similar pattern is about to happen again.  Very frustrating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not buying what the 12Z EURO is selling...looks way too awkward, and can't envision that much energy digging that far west.

 

You know what I've noticed this season (so far)...there are all these cut-off lows that keep screwing up the Eastern Pacific.  It's like, we get blocking off the coast...it starts to retrograde...but then a minor piece of energy comes through, turns into a cut-off low, and it screws up the retrogression potential.  It happened back just a few weeks ago...it looks like a similar pattern is about to happen again.  Very frustrating.

 

M Nel says the 12z GFS shows a Willamette Valley snow event...I wish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are pretty decent.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Storm rain total now at 1.25.

 

The videos coming out of the SE snow storm are amazing. 

[TT-SEA]

Initial look at SEA data appears to show that a dry winter tends to lead to a dry spring... and a wet winter also tends to lead to a dry spring.  

 

Not what I was expecting.    More research and more data needed.  

 

Must be all those 'normal' precip winters that produce our wet, ugly springs!

[TT-SEA]

00Z looks quite chilly.    

[bainbridgekid]

00Z looks quite chilly.    

Colder than the 12z but not as cold as the 18z through day 7.

[TT-SEA]

Colder than the 12z but not as cold as the 18z through day 7.

 

Yeah... I was doing side-by-side with the 12Z run.   

[TT-SEA]

Saturday morning...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.63.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Last 90 days:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Last 90 days:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gif

Are you trying to break the single day posting record by one person?

[bainbridgekid]

Last 90 days:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gif

Not a good map.

 

Much of the Inland West gets 10-15" of rain a year so it would be impossible for them to be in the red on that map even if they didn't see a single drop of rain.

 

That makes it look like the Coast has been getting a megga drought while the Inner Mountain West has been just below average.

 

What's the percentages map look like?

[TT-SEA]

Not a good map.

 

Much of the Inland West gets 10-15" of rain a year so it would be impossible for them to be in the red on that map even if they didn't see a single drop of rain.

 

That makes it look like the Coast has been getting a megga drought while the Inner Mountain West has been just below average.

 

What's the percentages map look like?

 

 

Great point.   Missed the header!

 

Here is the map I meant to post:

 

http://s18.postimg.org/so0tz8io9/anomimage_1.gif

[Snow]

00z GFS not good.

[East Dubzz]

Can you guys please start diggin so we can start troughing? This cold is getting old!

[westiztehbest]

00z GFS not good.

Depends on your definition of 'good'.

 

[Sometimesdylan]

00z brings in the cold a bit quicker for us, and gives us a nice snow storm next Wednesday the 5th. Seems like every other run has switched the placement with this little guy. Also puts us in the ice box in the long range. This is going to be a very interesting month.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 00Z Canadian is totally different and I assume much colder at 144 hours.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow... 00Z Canadian is totally different and I assume much colder at 144 hours.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Kinda looks like the 12z euro only sooner.

[brody]

Pretty incredible images of the deep south snow "storm" more like just cold temps as far as I'm concerned.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2548037/Thousands-stranded-snowy-roads-crashes-South-2-000-children-forced-sleep-schoo.html