January 2014 in the PNW

[Snow]

00z Canadian is cold.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_192_0850.gif

[whitechristmas]

00z GFS not good.

 

How is it not good?

[Snow]

How is it not good?

 

It's not good compared to the ECMWF earlier and Canadian just now.

[Snow]

00z GFS ensembles are quite good however.

[Parksvillewx]

 

[bainbridgekid]

00z GFS ensembles are quite good however.

Indeed.

 

Almost every single member is colder than the operational for the 3rd through the 5th.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[BLI snowman]

Operational GFS continues to squirm with this in the mid range. I have a lot of confidence in this one, OP will get its stuff together in a few days.

[Guest Winterdog]

00z GFS ensembles are quite good however.

[van city]

Where is Snow Wizard???

[brody]

Where is Snow Wizard???

Sitting in the corner rocking back and forth assuring himself everything will be ok

[luvssnow_spokane]

Where is Snow Wizard???

waxing his ski's and tuning up the snow blower.

[Deweydog]

Operational GFS continues to squirm with this in the mid range. I have a lot of confidence in this one, OP will get its stuff together in a few days.

 

For the moment, it's the outlier.  

[whitechristmas]

Where is Snow Wizard???

 

Putting his chains on......duh!

[Guest Winterdog]

Euro is still looking good out to day 7:

[van city]

Where is Snow Wizard???

What about Windy and his "score"?

[brody]

What about Windy and his "score"?

WHO?

 

Oh yea, " That " Guy 

[van city]

WHO?

 

Oh yea, " That " Guy

 

I am still waiting to score.

[Deweydog]

Euro has rewritten the third verse and chorus, removed the guitar solo.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looking good.

[BLI snowman]

Euro has rewritten the third verse and chorus, removed the guitar solo.  

 

Snow bomb. 

[Deweydog]

Snow bomb. 

 

Quite an upside, but it's a rickety pattern...

 

Maybe this will be our January 2011 strike out payoff!

[Snow]

00Z ECMWF is SUPER!

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the models improving over the last few runs.  Yesterday was downright exasperating.  We're at the point now where an improving trend for a few more runs could get us somewhere pretty good.

 

The Canadian ensemble at day 8 is a thing of beauty.  It's quite surprising how cold the WRF is in spite of the so so GFS operational run.

 

[van city]

Welcome Jim!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is great and the WRF is quite cold too.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.168.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

Euro is great and the WRF is quite cold too.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.168.0000.gif

 

All the models, at the moment, like the idea of a fairly sharp low level boundary.  

[snow_wizard]

The WRF even has lowland snow in this area tomorrow night.  If a c-zone sets up it could happen I suppose.

[snow_wizard]

Welcome Jim!!!!

 

 

I just couldn't post yesterday.  The model trends were so horrible...

[westiztehbest]

Wow the 00z Euro is cold.  I'm curious to see how that block in the GoA changes as the next few days worth of model runs evolves.  There looks to be a potential overrunning event late in the run.

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Overall pattern on the Euro is great but I just looked at the precip maps and was surprised to see it is totally dry at face value until a brief overrunning event at hour 222. 

 

Plenty of potential for something to spin up off the coast, but it's not being picked up on the Euro as of now.

 

EDIT: Scholarly Met? 

[snow_wizard]

Rumor has it some Eastern mets are saying the NW will have an epic event in early March. Just passing on the info...

[snow_wizard]

Overall pattern on the Euro is great but I just looked at the precip maps and was surprised to see it is totally dry at face value until a brief overrunning event at hour 222. 

 

Plenty of potential for something to spin up off the coast, but it's not being picked up on the Euro as of now.

 

EDIT: Scholarly Met? 

The models have changed so drastically over the past few runs that we should expect many detail changes over the next few days. Hopefully we can build on this and not lose ground again tomorrow.

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like there is some pretty cold air up north over the Yukon and Northern BC at 240 hours on the Euro. Is that sliding to our east again, or would that have a chance to make it down to our neck of the woods?

[Skagit Weather]

Wow the 00z Euro is cold.  I'm curious to see how that block in the GoA changes as the next few days worth of model runs evolves.  There looks to be a potential overrunning event late in the run.

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/25um8eo.png

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/2ccttl1.png

I like how there seems to be about a -20F temp anomaly centered directly over Skagit County in the upper image. Not the biggest fan of what looks like most of the sound missing out on the snow.

In all reality though, it would be nice if the models continue their trend towards colder and possibly snowier solutions.

[BLI snowman]

Overall pattern on the Euro is great but I just looked at the precip maps and was surprised to see it is totally dry at face value until a brief overrunning event at hour 222. 

 

Plenty of potential for something to spin up off the coast, but it's not being picked up on the Euro as of now.

 

EDIT: Scholarly Met? 

 

 

Congrats on the green!

[BLI snowman]

Rumor has it some Eastern mets are saying the NW will have an epic event in early March. Just passing on the info...

 

I'd rather just score in the next two weeks.

[bainbridgekid]

Congrats on the green!

Sorry to disappoint but it is entirely undeserved.

[Deweydog]

"Bainbridgekid" - you have had the meeting with Cliff Mass, you went to school studying Atmospheric sciences, and have been doing so for a couple years. You fall under the umbrella of "Scholarly Met", and will continue to do so if you leave school with a degree. You have shown yourself as a knowledgeable source of unbiased and clean info on all things weather.

 

Has he been tested?  

[bainbridgekid]

"Bainbridgekid" - you have had the meeting with Cliff Mass, you went to school studying Atmospheric sciences, and have been doing so for a couple years. You fall under the umbrella of "Scholarly Met", and will continue to do so if you leave school with a degree. You have shown yourself as a knowledgeable source of unbiased and clean info on all things weather.

I did meet with Cliff Mass two years ago about possibly getting a degree in atmospheric science from the UW, but in the end I decided against it.

 

I'm actually graduating from WWU in March with a degree in psychology and plan to get a Masters in Elementary Education from the UW next year.

 

I'll be sure to teach my first or second graders plenty about the weather though!

 

I appreciate the kind words, but I clearly do not deserve any kind of special tag.

[HighlandExperience]

EURO, GEM and GFS look decently chilly. Hope their is decent moisture to work with in later runs.