January 2014 in the PNW

[Skagit Weather]

I'm still a newbie

You could always quickly rattle off 23 junk posts in a random thread to get the title of "Advanced Member."

[Gradient Keeper]

I wonder what's after 'Advanced' Ooooo

[luvssnow_spokane]

I wonder what's after 'Advanced' Ooooo

Demi God

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am actually enjoyed tonight 0z and it appears the ensembles are not bad either.

[Skagit Weather]

Pretty amazing that 850mb temps got up to 16C just off the coast today while 925mb temps were at 19C. What are the warmest 850mb temps that the NW has had over it during the winter?

[snow_wizard]

Quite a bummer to have to start over at post number 1.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like some places will be very icy in the morning.  Currently soaking wet with dense fog and 32 here.  Drier air seeping in though the passes is allowing the temps to drop a little bit each day at the surface.  I think next week will be pretty chilly in areas that don't mix out.  Probably highs mid to upper 30s and lows mid to upper 20s.

 

Pretty impressive how different the 0z GFS analog composite is at day 11 compared to previous runs.  It actually shows us in below normal heights at that time with a strong positive center to our NW.  Nice improvement in the ensemble also.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty amazing that 850mb temps got up to 16C just off the coast today while 925mb temps were at 19C. What are the warmest 850mb temps that the NW has had over it during the winter?

 

Today was pretty top tier. Lots of record highs in the Cascades, I would imagine.

 

We had 16c 850mb temps near us on January 15-16, 2009. Late December 1985 and late December 1956 were two other really extreme warm airmasses. 

[BLI snowman]

Something has got to give in the next two months with the deficits that the region has been running. Almost a guarantee that one or both of February/March will be a valley rain and mountain snow filled washout. It's now been 13 months since our last consequential period of persistent, cold season WNW flow. When the ridge finally moves it seems quite probable that the pattern will morph into that. 

[snow_wizard]

Something has got to give in the next two months with the deficits that the region has been running. Almost a guarantee that one or both of February/March will be a valley rain and mountain snow filled washout. It's now been 13 months since our last consequential period of persistent, cold season WNW flow. When the ridge finally moves it seems quite probable that the pattern will morph into that. 

 

Given how persistent the blocky patterns have been the past couple of winters it's highly possible it could last a while longer.  It seems like we are quite due for a 150W block also.  The extreme nature of the blocking currently over us makes me wonder if a reversal may be in the cards.  A total reversal from this would probably be pretty good for us.  I think we are going to have a shot at it, but there's always a chance it will get mucked up when it tries to happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmmmmm......

  AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 955 PM PST FRI JAN 17 2014

 .CLIMATE... THE WEEK 2 FORECAST FROM WPC INDICATES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR US FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. THIS IS BASED ON AN AREA OF INTENSE TROPICAL CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM INDONESIA TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE PROPAGATING OUT ROSSY WAVE ENERGY THAT SHOULD UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS IS INDEED RELATED TO THE MJO. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO, BUT ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS JUST YET. COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS RIPPLE WILL REACH US CLOSER TO THE END OF THE MONTH, AROUND THE 30TH. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE STORM ACTIVITY RETURN TO OUR AREA AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. STAY TUNED, AS TIMING WITH SUCH FEATURES IS OFTEN FICKLE. BTL

[Gradient Keeper]

Quite a bummer to have to start over at post number 1.

Welcome, Jim. It's nice to see you here finally.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says at least 7 days of gloom for the Willamette Valley south of Woodburn...Two years in a row now of a massive January fogversion. At least I live above it, but I do have to work down in it.

[TT-SEA]

Crystal clear again this morning here... not sure how close the fog is right now.

 

The inversion should greatly weaken today.

 

850mb temps are in the process of dropping from +16C yesterday evening to +3C tomorrow.

[brody]

Crystal clear again this morning here... not sure how close the fog is right now.

 

The inversion should greatly weaken today.

 

850mb temps are in the process of dropping from +16C yesterday evening to +3C tomorrow.

Foggy and just icky as hell out this way in Kirkland. Not a breath of wind to speak of, would love to see some sort of mixing occurring but no dice.

[TT-SEA]

Foggy and just icky as hell out this way in Kirkland. Not a breath of wind to speak of, would love to see some sort of mixing occurring but no dice.

 

The Issaquah Highlands cam has been socked in since Wednesday but this morning its clear there with fog down below.    So it appears to be more shallow this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Also... looking at some traffic cams it appears that Maple Valley and Covington cleared out this morning as well.

 

A little more mixing as least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say there does look to be some kind of pattern change toward the end of the month. Given how persistent everything has been this year it would not surprise me if it stuck around awhile...

[Jesse]

I will say there does look to be some kind of pattern change toward the end of the month. Given how persistent everything has been this year it would not surprise me if it stuck around awhile...

 

Hopefully that change isn't to mild and wet.

 

As of now it is looking like it could be chilly and wet at times.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully that change isn't to mild and wet.

 

As of now it is looking like it could be chilly and wet at times.

 

My guess is that February will be very wet.   Probably good for the mountains.

 

I am actually hoping that February is really wet... it might help set the stage for nicer weather later in the spring.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully that change isn't to mild and wet.

 

As of now it is looking like it could be chilly and wet at times.

 

Chilly and wet at times would be an ideal scenario imo. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the inversion has broken up here.   

 

Its even clearing out right in Seattle.    

 

This is a live view from the Issaquah Highlands... socked in for the last few days but now you can see all the way to the Olympics.     Cooling 850mb temps and a band of high clouds seems to have done the trick.     Today will be much better for the Seattle area.

 

http://s28.postimg.org/atrjb4y1p/ISSGR_l.jpg

 

 

Here is the same view at NOON yesterday:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/ftvty5t9t/011720141200_l.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My guess is that February will be very wet.   Probably good for the mountains.

 

I am actually hoping that February is really wet... it might help set the stage for nicer weather later in the spring.    

 

I do hope that February will be much more active. I think if we have an active February/March we could end up having a pretty decent April/May. 

[Jesse]

I do hope that February will be much more active. I think if we have an active February/March we could end up having a pretty decent April/May. 

 

I just want to see some snow. I have only had 1" this winter. That's pathetic. 

 

A shame my two winters out here have been so dry and quiet overall. This one still has some time to make up lost ground but the clock is starting to tick at a pretty good pace.

[snow_wizard]

I do hope that February will be much more active. I think if we have an active February/March we could end up having a pretty decent April/May. 

 

I'm far from sold Feb will be really wet, but it should be much more troughy than what we have seen lately.  At present there is a strong indication of -EPO developing

[snow_wizard]

I just want to see some snow. I have only had 1" this winter. That's pathetic. 

 

A shame my two winters out here have been so dry and quiet overall. This one still has some time to make up lost ground but the clock is starting to tick at a pretty good pace.

 

I just can't imagine the insane positive height anomalies we've seen this month not being made up for before the winter is over.  There is still room for a major cold event out of all this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just want to see some snow. I have only had 1" this winter. That's pathetic. 

 

A shame my two winters out here have been so dry and quiet overall. This one still has some time to make up lost ground but the clock is starting to tick at a pretty good pace.

 

I've only had a little over an inch which is even more pathetic. 

[brody]

Looks like the inversion has broken up here.   

 

Its even clearing out right in Seattle.    

 

This is a live view from the Issaquah Highlands... socked in for the last few days but now you can see all the way to the Olympics.     Cooling 850mb temps and a band of high clouds seems to have done the trick.     Today will be much better for the Seattle area.

 

http://s28.postimg.org/atrjb4y1p/ISSGR_l.jpg

 

 

Here is the same view at NOON yesterday:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/ftvty5t9t/011720141200_l.jpg

The inversion appears to be very shallow on that first image, that weak system moving in looks to be helping a bit

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been 19 years since PDX had a major snow event in February, you'd think that someday that will end.

[snow_wizard]

The inversion appears to be very shallow on that first image, that weak system moving in looks to be helping a bit

 

Low clouds are just arriving here after brief clearing this morning.

[Skagit Weather]

The inversion appears to be very shallow on that first image, that weak system moving in looks to be helping a bit

It must be lowering up here to, but it seems to be getting denser near the surface. This morning is the foggiest that it has been here in the last week.

[TT-SEA]

I've only had a little over an inch which is even more pathetic. 

 

 

I have had about 5 inches for the season.

 

But 4 inches of that melted in sloppy drizzle in a matter of a couple hours.    That is worse than getting no snow.

 

But hey... we needed that snow event on 12/20 to 'break the ice' and get the snow train started as Jim said!    That was quite the warning shot.    Its led to absolutely nothing.       

[snow_wizard]

It has been 19 years since PDX had a major snow event in February, you'd think that someday that will end.

 

That has to be some kind of a record I would think.  WAY overdue.

 

I'm very encouraged by latest EPO/PNA forecast.  Both significantly negative by late Jan / very early Feb.

 

[snow_wizard]

Hmmm...it appears the images aren't posting correctly.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS is much prettier than previous runs.  A much nicer evolution of the Aleutian blocking.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS is much prettier than previous runs. A much nicer evolution of the Aleutian blocking.

Really good run. Nice to see timing moving up too.

 

There is hope yet.

[Skagit Weather]

The 12z GFS is much prettier than previous runs.  A much nicer evolution of the Aleutian blocking.

It looks very nice for Bellingham, at least for the extracted data. Almost a week of below -7C 850mb temps with precipitation every day. Seems like that would give quite a bit of snow if it verified. Only 240 hours out!

[brody]

Really good run. Nice to see timing moving up too.

 

There is hope yet.

Hope is all we have this winter, still too far out for my liking.

 

Dare I call it eye candy at this point?

[brody]

 Only 240 hours out!

Oh how I miss the days of ( GFS shows snow @ 384 hrs ) 

[Black Hole]

 

Hmmmmmmm......

  AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 955 PM PST FRI JAN 17 2014

 .CLIMATE... THE WEEK 2 FORECAST FROM WPC INDICATES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR US FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. THIS IS BASED ON AN AREA OF INTENSE TROPICAL CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM INDONESIA TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE PROPAGATING OUT ROSSY WAVE ENERGY THAT SHOULD UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS IS INDEED RELATED TO THE MJO. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO, BUT ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS JUST YET. COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS RIPPLE WILL REACH US CLOSER TO THE END OF THE MONTH, AROUND THE 30TH. AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE STORM ACTIVITY RETURN TO OUR AREA AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. STAY TUNED, AS TIMING WITH SUCH FEATURES IS OFTEN FICKLE. BTL

That seems to be the time a lot of us are watching so it is nice to see them in agreement. 

 

Mark Nelsen says at least 7 days of gloom for the Willamette Valley south of Woodburn...Two years in a row now of a massive January fogversion. At least I live above it, but I do have to work down in it.

In the fog but not of the fog? lol

 

 

The 12z GFS is much prettier than previous runs.  A much nicer evolution of the Aleutian blocking.

Yeah it looks nice, and is around that time frame I mentioned above with the big change.