Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS and EURO have latched onto the idea of a heavy snow producing storm starting on Tuesday the 1st and then moving into the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday the 2nd. GEM has it and then it doesn't, but we won't concentrate on that right now. Let's see what we have going for this system. - Stronger high pressure moving down through the Canadian Provinces will prevent this from cutting into Lakes on the EURO at least. - Teleconnections look to be: NAO around +0.8, AO around -1, PNA about +1. MJO looks to be entering phase 8 - which is cold this time of year, especially Lakes on east. - High winds are evident on the EURO, which would cause blizzard conditions on the backside. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS and EURO have latched onto the idea of a heavy snow producing storm starting on Tuesday the 1st and then moving into the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday the 2nd. GEM has it and then it doesn't, but we won't concentrate on that right now. Let's see what we have going for this system. - Stronger high pressure moving down through the Canadian Provinces will prevent this from cutting into Lakes on the EURO at least. - Teleconnections look to be: NAO around +0.8, AO around -1, PNA about +1. MJO looks to be entering phase 8 - which is cold this time of year, especially Lakes on east. - High winds are evident on the EURO, which would cause blizzard conditions on the backside. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022512/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ncus_7.pngEhhh I would favor a more northerly track than the EURO this far out. Plenty to support that as well. Climatology lack of snow cover...... Couple days ago models had you getting warning citeria snows on sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ehhh I would favor a more northerly track than the EURO this far out. Plenty to support that as well. Climatology lack of snow cover...... Couple days ago models had you getting warning citeria snows on sunday. Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run. There was no snow cover before the pre-Thanksgiving Day storm either...There will be some snow cover in WI from the Sunday system down. The PNA would favor this system going more south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run. The PNA would favor this system going more south. Don't know what's going to happen yet of course. It had one off run and nailed this area. Then it seems the EURO goes back to where it was. Hopefully this isn't that "off" run. There was no snow cover before the pre-Thanksgiving Day storm either...There will be some snow cover in WI from the Sunday system down. The PNA would favor this system going more south.degree of phasing will be equally important Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 degree of phasing will be equally important Yeah hopefully it doesn't go GGEM.Except for the November system, that model has failed this far out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yeah hopefully it doesn't go GGEM.Except for the November system, that model has failed this far out.That model sucks for sure as does the DGEX of course and the JMA and anything else we post about besides the GFS, GEFS, EPS, and EURO in this timeframe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 The DGEX sucks at any range. Don't think I've ever seen the DGEX even get a storm close to right Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's been within 750 miles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Accuweather is on board Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Psst.. don't look at the what the JMA wants to do! As for DEGEX, it wasn't that far off with snow placement in SMI, but the usual rule of dividing by 2 and multiplying the remainder by .75 did hold up. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Accuweather is on board 650x366_02251955_hd22-1.jpg Not one to be "late to the party" are they? Sheesh at our instant info society we've become. Everyone rushing to be first to get social media hits or whatever Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Not one to be "late to the party" are they? Sheesh at our instant info society we've become. Everyone rushing to be first to get social media hits or whatever Thought the same thing. Couldn't believe they have a post up already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 EURO and GFS SLP tracks right now. O, Accuweather don't jinx it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This thing is going north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looking like this is going to stay away from here (around Minneapolis), but should still be a fun storm to track! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 CPC says WOOF! WOOF! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Within 108-120 hours already kind of sneaked up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Would love to see the EPS members. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z EPS takes the mean SLP CPC says WOOF! WOOF! 20160225 hazards_d3_7.png Would love to see the EPS members. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016022512/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016022512/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png 12z EPS on board with a southern track just like the storm did back in LRC cycle 1 & 2 (although during cycle 2 it didnt really materialize into a big storm). I'll post some maps for ya guys...nice track for a Lower Lakes/OV Cutter...might even get some snow into the KC region. BTW, EPS saying this ain't the last storm in the parade through the next 2 weeks. Giddy up! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This thing is going north.Do you want it to go north??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Take a look at the Hudson Bay low and the HP diving down out of Canada which is being sent south from the spinning vortex near Hudson Bay. That feature is going to play a role in the ultimate track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Let the games begin again y'all !!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GEFS members. Quite a few lows south of the operational. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Do you want it to go north???No but lack of snowcover plus wide open gulf etc I just think this one is going to be like the other one with a NW trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Hard to believe, but TWC has me for 70% chance for snow both Wednesday and Thursday of next week and 5-8inch for each day. Holy Crap! They are definitely on board also. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 No but lack of snowcover plus wide open gulf etc I just think this one is going to be like the other one with a NW trendThat really won't be a big deal in this set up. 18z GFS south this run.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 That really won't be a big deal in this set up. 18z GFS south this run.... Well that's a big difference. Wouldn't expect the GFS to be in the same spot this run...Probably a poor phase. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Well that's a big difference. Wouldn't expect the GFS to be in the same spot this run...Probably a poor phase. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160225/18Z/f144/acckucherasnowconus.pngIt just phases the storm much later his run. No biggies. That HP will keep his south due to the vortex near Hudson Bay IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 It just phases the storm much later his run. No biggies. That HP will keep his south due to the vortex near Hudson Bay IMOOk weenie Wanna make a bet again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS 300 miles further south than the 12z run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS looks really odd around the hr 96 mark. I would throw it out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 The Hudson Bay low is driving it, like Tom said. Stronger heights over the Arctic, West Coast Ridge is more prominent. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This things cutting through Chicago IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ok weenie Wanna make a bet again? Here we go again...btw, why would I be a snow weenie when I'm tracking this storm from AZ???? I don't get any benefit from it, except for ORD's final snow tally for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 You still owe me from the last bet btw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 You guys... If that West Coast is sharp like it now shows, there is no way this storm is cutting west of Detroit. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 You still owe me from the last bet btwNope. Was waiting on you. Check your private messages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Cruising the streets of Fountain Hils 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 NWS office in Chanhassen mentions a possible foot of snow in southern MN via the GFS. Quite interesting seeing as most things seem to be pointing to a more southerly solution at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lol pretty pointless to bicker over track 100 hours out. Geos knows in his head any thing is on the table. if the models flip south of him he will be bringing it back north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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