Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z NAM rolling. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nam coming north? Sure looks like it at hr 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Def trying to form some cold sector precip as it deepens might be a good hit for Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Weird gap Chicago on south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Interesting trying to go neg tilt at hr 51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 4km nam way different gets to 999 at hr 45 and has a nice defo band forming with 6+ in western and eastern Iowa extending towards Chicago prolly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice spread the wealth system...lol....60mi wide band of snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 4km NAM is a bit better. The backside area will need to be watched. Thinking that could expand as model ingest more data. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The Nam run reminds me sorta of the Dec 31st - Jan 2 2014 storm that produced a long duration frontogenesis snow and then the systems main defo band formed along with some lake effect at the tail end. It might have actually been the 2nd storm that 1st week of Jan. Interesting run tho. 4km Nam gets down to a 989mb near OH with a squall line along OV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 What a beautiful track for my area. Niko I think you will join the party of those getting smoked! See you in the smokehouse bud! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gfs with 6-10 from dbq east to Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Hey hey looky there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Unless you're in the southern Plains there is no recent model run showing 70s in the Midwest, expect western KS.This isn't the thread for that though.thats why I said close to the 70s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Pretty good agreement this band will be between Libertyville and Mequon about. 70 mile wide area of uncertainty. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS a county or two north of where it ends up, or it's just a wider band? That'd be good for most here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM at 10:1 The 12km NAM, 4km NAM, GFS, and RGEM have the f-gen snow core 60-75 miles north of the freezing line roughly. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ukie takes the low almost up to the quad cities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 FYI UKMET is farther north with the fgn and hits lse to mke pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 FYI UKMET is farther north with the fgn and hits lse to mke pretty good Unfortunately for the most part the short term models seem to be on the southern edge of guidance atm. That may change as we close in on the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94 I don't understand what significance that should have; frontogenetic bands will occur where they want to, and depend on where the front sets up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94I'm done posting here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 I don't understand what significance that should have; frontogenetic bands will occur where they want to, and depend on where the front sets up. I should have emphasized a bit more. After almost 20 winters of watching these features, when the front stalls out near I-80 after coming down the lake, they usually occur 50-75 miles north of that line. Usually these fronts that drop in from the north and northeast don't stop until they've reached the bottom of the lake. Edit: Now if for some reason the front stalls at I-88, then I would be too far south of the band. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 MKX is waiting for the Euro. Looks like headlines will be issued in the morning AFD. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 656FXUS63 KMKX 290446AFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1046 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016.UPDATE...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS NOW FOCUS OVER SRN WI FOR MDT TOHEAVY SNOWFALL MON NT AND TUE AM. IF THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE THEREWILL FINALLY BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST TIME WITHTHIS SYSTEM. A STRONG N-S TROPOSPHERIC TEMP GRADIENT WILL STALLOVER SRN WI AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MON AFT. AS A COUPLEUPPER WAVES APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...A SWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP MONNT AND PRODUCE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 850 MB OVERSRN WI. IT WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM ANDBY THE RRQD OF THE UPPER JET. GFS AND NAM QPF AROUND 0.55 INCHESBUT CONCERNED QPF WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN A NARROW W-E BAND OFHEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH OVERTHE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND SNOW MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO BLOW ANDDRIFT FAIRLY WELL. WINTER WX HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THEEARLY MON AM FORECAST PACKAGE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Almost forgot to mention - all model runs tonight support lake enhanced snow, especially towards Tuesday morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Low travels near I-70 on the EURO until it gets to St. Louis and then moves towards Evansville. Low continues straight down I-70 pretty much, then through central PA to NYC. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The snow band is definitely north and stronger than at 12z...but the GFS had already showed this at 12z and has been more consistent. It seems the Euro has been playing 'catch up' all winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Only thing up in the air now is whether the actual storm has enough moisture on the backside. Are you on the southside MKEstorm? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Only thing up in the air now is whether the actual storm has enough moisture on the backside. Are you on the southside MKEstorm? I am located in southwest MKE County...about 4 miles due west of the airport! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 I am located in southwest MKE County...about 4 miles due west of the airport! Ok, that's what I thought I remembered. You'll probably get some fluffy snow tomorrow night. Temps look to dive after sunset. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ok, that's what I thought I remembered. You'll probably get some fluffy snow tomorrow night. Temps look to dive after sunset. Temps been diving tonight! LOL! Was at near 60 with windows open early evening...then 2 hours later at 38. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 NMM just pounds the stateline area. ARW Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 6z HRRR at 3pm tomorrow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 That band tonight looks pretty intense. Where it setups there could be over 1" hr rates for several hours with fairly windy conditions to boot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah it will be rocking tonight for those in that 60mi wide area. Hoping to get a taste. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 It'll be so close I don't know what to do out here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 It'll be so close I don't know what to do out here.RGEM has been looking good for your area. Will be interesting to see where it setsup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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