Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 12km NAM LOT going for 6"+ here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 12km NAM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160229/12Z/f39/acckucherasnowmw.png LOT going for 6"+ here.You seem to be in a sweet spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Come on MSN reel this one in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Come on MSN reel this one in.I think you will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS thru 33 hours. GFS usually skimps on the snow amounts with f-gen bands... RGEM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS usually skimps on the snow amounts with f-gen bands... And also the GFS tends to be too slow to drop amounts south of what is often a razor-sharp southern edge. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Its looking like I'm in for a staggering 2-4" maybe 5". Have fun for those South of I94, if everything comes together I could see some 10" amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 And also the GFS tends to be too slow to drop amounts south of what is often a razor-sharp southern edge. Yeah that too.Liking where I sit right now. HRRR has the front coming through at 4pm here. When the wind comes down the lake in late winter, spring you can usually count on a temperature profile to look like this. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RPM model...Geo's bullseye...I wonder if this model is seeing any Lehs... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Its looking like I'm in for a staggering 2-4" maybe 5". Have fun for those South of I94, if everything comes together I could see some 10" amounts. The latest RPM Tom posted looks good for us; it shows us in the northern portion of I believe a 4-8" band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Heck, the RPM looks like it'd be good for me. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The latest RPM Tom posted looks good for us; it shows us in the northern portion of I believe a 4-8" band.Yeah we aren't completely out of this yet. Stranger things have happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RPM is solid in this range...would wait till tonight's run though...it picked up the last minute shift in lesser snow fall amounts for the past storm that missed Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah we aren't completely out of this yet. Stranger things have happened. We're guaranteed some snow at least I think. Maybe not as heavy out by Germantown compared to the airport and south though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR has the front coming through at 4pm here. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160229/1400Z/f008/sfctmw.png Even though I probably won't be getting much snow from this, as a weather geek I love watching these late-season extreme gradient systems. That's just a cool map. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Im screwed again. I know it. Lol. Im calling an inch for here. That will be about it, i know it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Im screwed again. I know it. Lol. Im calling an inch for here. That will be about it, i know it.Nov 21st repeat? South burbs get screwed again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is the snowfall map for the 21st. this upcoming storm looks to be less down this way but interesting to see some similarities up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 I got 4-5 in the 21st storm. It was nice. Our biggest storm here. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is the snowfall map for the 21st. this upcoming storm looks to be less down this way but interesting to see some similarities up north. 48hour_snowfall.pngThanks for bringing that up...ya, it will be fascinating to see if the fronto band is as razor sharp as some of the higher rez models are showing it to be. I think the heaviest will end up north of I-90/94. There is a period when the winds turn off the lake and veer more NE as SLP passes on to the south which could enhance snowfall a bit for lake side counties. Temps are forecast to be in the mid 20's as the snow starts flying just after midnight tonight. 18z RAP thru 3:00am..still snowing...this is about when the lake may have an influence in NE IL as winds veer for ENE/NE. Looks like the track will be just over Quincy, IL. Near perfect track for snowfall in N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP has 850's near -6C or less where the heaviest snow falls...that is prime for optimal snowfall production...could be talking 14:1 ratios... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Northern burbs to milwaukee gonna pound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake enhancement looks good starting really late tonight into most of tomorrow morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake enhancement looks good starting really late tonight into most of tomorrow morning.Hopefully it can add several inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Hopefully it can add several inches Actually more likely between 5am and early afternoon tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if there is 10" amounts. End of the 16z HRRR Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Been so busy lately I havent been able to check in much. DMX is talking potential warning criteria over my way. Latest GFS, NAM and GGEM all showing 6+ for me. Nice! Wonder if they will upgrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 NMM smokin' this area again with 1" of moisture. EURO targeting the same areas it looks like. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z Euro...lining up well with the higher rez models in terms of placement of heaviest corridor of preicp...looks like Cook county on north towards south burbs of MKE. 850's drop to -10C when SLP passes over Indy when winds howl full fetch downwind the lake into NE IL. The period to watch for Lehs snowfall is between 6:00am till just after 12:00pm local time. I think a lake plume is def possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 EURO close to what it was last night. Little less farther west, but I wouldn't sweat it. Go with the high-res models. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Snow shouldn't have a problem accumulating overnight on roads when temps are in the upper 20's...by the time the sun comes up there will be an established snow cover and temps still in the mid/upper 20's. This should be a nice snow storm for the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 ORD shouldn't have a problem cracking 30" for the season and creeping closer towards the seasonal average. By week's end it may crack avg if the second system materializes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Faint radar echoes already starting to appear in Iowa right along US 20. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Rap loves southern wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Any maps gosaints? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 The band is going to setup just north of the 0° line at 850 mb. You can see the beginnings of the band along US 20 in Iowa. The convergence with this is impressive. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Any maps gosaints?http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160229/17Z/f18/accqpfconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RPM goes south. Front is already into the northern suburbs of Milwaukee. It's moving quicker than the HRRR is showing it. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RPM goes south. Picking up on Lehs for Cook/Lake county I see... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Returns showing up on the WI IL boarder. Thinking south might be the way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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