March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tony]

^If these potential storms pan out then what a wild start to Spring for most of this forum.

[Tom]

^If these potential storms pan out then what a wild start to Spring for most of this forum.

Indeed, El Nino's are known for being back loaded and it seems like this one has characteristics as such. One of the analogs being thrown out there is March 2007 which was blow torch warm and then turned very chilly, especially in April. That summer was very warm and we all know what that following winter did near the Lakes!

[gosaints]

rooting for thishttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160317/12Z/f120/850mbtempsconus.png

[gosaints]

EURO looks wet but a little to warm for the wednesday thursday system next week?

[Geos]

EURO is pretty much by itself in regards to Upper Midwest warmth.

 

EURO looks wet but a little to warm for the wednesday thursday system next week?

 

 

Mix to snow. Temps falling into the 20s on Thursday.

[gosaints]

EURO is pretty much by itself in regards to Upper Midwest warmth.

 

 

 

Mix to snow. Temps falling into the 20s on Thursday.

betting against the king?  been a losing proposition the last month

[Geos]

betting against the king?  been a losing proposition the last month

 

With the falling NAO and AO, yeah I'm going to call it and go against any Upper Midwest warmth/central ridges right now - for next week.

[Tom]

Nice Nor'Easter showing up along the EC as the Vernal Equinox kicks in Saturday night just after mid night...Mother Nature timing this one quite well...

 

2 ribbons of snow showing up on the 12z Euro over the next 10 days...nice sub 990mb storm cutting up lower lakes Easter weekend.  Guess the Easter bunny may have to burrow it's way through some snow if this holds!

[gosaints]

Move it a couple hundred miles NW and lock it in.  Start the month with a torch and finish it with concrete..

 

Doubt it comes to fruition but who knows.  I am sure there is some reason it can go further northwest

[Money]

We've been spoiled so far this spring so wouldn't surprise me to see a huge snowstorm happen

[Sleather]

Wow, that's crazy.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/acc10_1snowmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

 

GFS has been showing variants of this event for quite a while now. It changes in track and intensity but it's almost always been there. Leads me to believe there may be something to it - even this far out. We'll see. I suspect it will get too warm for Chicagoland to experience a big snow storm.

[Tom]

For those rooting for warmth, you'll get your shot for a brief 1-2 day period Day 6-7...then the pattern reloads Week 2.  Ain't no fooling around if the 12z EPS/Control are right for April Fool's day this year.

[Money]

How the ensembles look Tom?

[Tom]

How the ensembles look Tom?

Wide variety of solutions which is to be expected this far out but still showing a snowy GL region.  The majority ensemble members have 2 separate waves.  Need to see one strong piece bundle all of its energy and cut up towards the Lakes.

[gosaints]

For those rooting for warmth, you'll get your shot for a brief 1-2 day period Day 6-7...then the pattern reloads Week 2. Ain't no fooling around if the 12z EPS/Control are right for April Fool's day this year.

We have had our fun since september.... Those rooting for cold have been shut down

[NEJeremy]

I thought the big snows were supposed to happen by midmonth. It seems like something is always going on in the 10-14 day range and then it disappears along with moderating temps anyway. I'll wait to believe this when I see it!

[Tony]

Both Euro and GFS have a big storm in this range so something to definitely consider. Whether its rain or snow time will tell but tons of moisture being shown. I know it's a ways out but needs to be watched.

[gosaints]

Impressive...

http://www.fox9.com/news/109330616-story

[OKwx2k4]

Impressive...

http://www.fox9.com/news/109330616-story

1877-78 (Previous Record) was also a super Nino winter. Shared a lot of similarities to this winter. Super torch.

[Geos]

0z GEM has GoSaints in the cross hairs for the most snow in the next 10 days.

Eastern Nebraska not too bad either.

 

[gosaints]

I can up my GGEM snow totals for the year up to about 350 inches

[Tom]

00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal.

[gosaints]

00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal.

At some point one would think the crazy pattern of the long range EPS would pan out..

[gosaints]

Storm 1 looks like a stinker on the GFS.  Pretty solid ridge early next week, Chicago looks torchy

[Tom]

At some point one would think the crazy pattern of the long range EPS would pan out..

The year of wild swings shall continue...at least since January...

[gosaints]

Storm 1 looks like a stinker on the GFS.  Pretty solid ridge early next week, Chicago looks torchy.  Follows climatology almost perfectly

[gosaints]

The year of wild swings shall continue...at least since January...

One end of the wild has been much more pronounced

[Tom]

One end of the wild has been much more pronounced

There is no doubt the warmth has been dominant...not sure why you think anyone suggests otherwise.  The "muted" PV is eventually going to "chill" the overall pattern from where it's been.

[gosaints]

The trend doesnt seem to be the friend of significant snow

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031812/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

[Geos]

The trend doesnt seem to be the friend of significant snow

 

 

Just enough snow to delay Spring longer.

 

Models are liking that 24-26th for a significant storm in the Great Lakes. 

[Geos]

There is no doubt the warmth has been dominant...not sure why you think anyone suggests otherwise.  The "muted" PV is eventually going to "chill" the overall pattern from where it's been.

 

In 5 days there is two pieces with one being over North America.

 

[gosaints]

Just enough snow to delay Spring longer.

 

Models are liking that 24-26th for a significant storm in the Great Lakes. 

The last 2 weeks have been spring

[Geos]

The last 2 weeks have been spring

 

It doesn't seem like it yet. Grass is slightly greener, but that's about it.

Spring is the shortest season around here thanks to the lake.

[gosaints]

It doesn't seem like it yet. Grass is slightly greener, but that's about it.

Spring is the shortest season around here thanks to the lake.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthTDeptMRCC.png

 

That looks like spring

[Geos]

 

That looks like spring

 

For me personally, it has to "look" like spring. Signs of spring are showing up in terms of birds and Daffodils, but the constant back and forth with temperatures doesn't scream spring. 

And that map is too warm along the lake. +4.1° here

It's typical early Spring weather here, not full blown Spring like you have been getting.

[Geos]

00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal.

 

EURO has the storm late next Thursday/Friday again. Some wet snow from KC to this area and into northern lower MI.

 

 

[gosaints]

For me personally, it has to "look" like spring. Signs of spring are showing up in terms of birds and Daffodils, but the constant back and forth with temperatures doesn't scream spring. 

And that map is too warm along the lake. +4.1° here

It's typical early Spring weather here, not full blown Spring like you have been getting.

Gotcha didnt realize you were referring to your microclimate

[Geos]

Gotcha didnt realize you were referring to your microclimate

 

Believe me it would be nice if warm spells wouldn't get interrupted by 15-20 degree shifts in temperatures with the flip of the wind. Leaves come out of the trees a good 2 weeks, sometimes three weeks later than areas a county over.

 

Nice to have the free AC come July and August though.

[jaster220]

Almost every single decent snowstorm here in SMI has been followed by the awful d3 significant warm-up. That's why a season that has managed to deliver a little over 50% of my record winter of 2 yrs ago feels light-years more lame. Nearly 52" on the season and it's been like "what winter?". Hardly pushed a shovel between the warm ground and sudden melt-offs. Wouldn't be surprised that yet another decent snow fall could happen and also vanish just as quickly as the Nov. 21st foot-plus did. Due to this trend, I've actually been full in for spring the past 2-wks and have almost zero interest in dealing with more snow this season.

[jaster220]

00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal.

 

 That has been a constant during all these warmest of El-nino months. The last (10) days of the month delivered what winter there was. Feb kinda spilled over into 1st bit of March, but we know the wx doesn't look at a calendar.