Tony Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 ^If these potential storms pan out then what a wild start to Spring for most of this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 ^If these potential storms pan out then what a wild start to Spring for most of this forum.Indeed, El Nino's are known for being back loaded and it seems like this one has characteristics as such. One of the analogs being thrown out there is March 2007 which was blow torch warm and then turned very chilly, especially in April. That summer was very warm and we all know what that following winter did near the Lakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 rooting for thishttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160317/12Z/f120/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 EURO looks wet but a little to warm for the wednesday thursday system next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 EURO is pretty much by itself in regards to Upper Midwest warmth. EURO looks wet but a little to warm for the wednesday thursday system next week? Mix to snow. Temps falling into the 20s on Thursday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 EURO is pretty much by itself in regards to Upper Midwest warmth. Mix to snow. Temps falling into the 20s on Thursday.betting against the king? been a losing proposition the last month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 betting against the king? been a losing proposition the last month With the falling NAO and AO, yeah I'm going to call it and go against any Upper Midwest warmth/central ridges right now - for next week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nice Nor'Easter showing up along the EC as the Vernal Equinox kicks in Saturday night just after mid night...Mother Nature timing this one quite well... 2 ribbons of snow showing up on the 12z Euro over the next 10 days...nice sub 990mb storm cutting up lower lakes Easter weekend. Guess the Easter bunny may have to burrow it's way through some snow if this holds! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Move it a couple hundred miles NW and lock it in. Start the month with a torch and finish it with concrete.. Doubt it comes to fruition but who knows. I am sure there is some reason it can go further northwest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 We've been spoiled so far this spring so wouldn't surprise me to see a huge snowstorm happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wow, that's crazy. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/acc10_1snowmw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/24hkucherasnowmw.png GFS has been showing variants of this event for quite a while now. It changes in track and intensity but it's almost always been there. Leads me to believe there may be something to it - even this far out. We'll see. I suspect it will get too warm for Chicagoland to experience a big snow storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 For those rooting for warmth, you'll get your shot for a brief 1-2 day period Day 6-7...then the pattern reloads Week 2. Ain't no fooling around if the 12z EPS/Control are right for April Fool's day this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 How the ensembles look Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 How the ensembles look Tom?Wide variety of solutions which is to be expected this far out but still showing a snowy GL region. The majority ensemble members have 2 separate waves. Need to see one strong piece bundle all of its energy and cut up towards the Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 For those rooting for warmth, you'll get your shot for a brief 1-2 day period Day 6-7...then the pattern reloads Week 2. Ain't no fooling around if the 12z EPS/Control are right for April Fool's day this year.We have had our fun since september.... Those rooting for cold have been shut down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 I thought the big snows were supposed to happen by midmonth. It seems like something is always going on in the 10-14 day range and then it disappears along with moderating temps anyway. I'll wait to believe this when I see it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 17, 2016 Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Both Euro and GFS have a big storm in this range so something to definitely consider. Whether its rain or snow time will tell but tons of moisture being shown. I know it's a ways out but needs to be watched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Impressive...http://www.fox9.com/news/109330616-story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Impressive...http://www.fox9.com/news/109330616-story1877-78 (Previous Record) was also a super Nino winter. Shared a lot of similarities to this winter. Super torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 0z GEM has GoSaints in the cross hairs for the most snow in the next 10 days.Eastern Nebraska not too bad either. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 I can up my GGEM snow totals for the year up to about 350 inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal.At some point one would think the crazy pattern of the long range EPS would pan out.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Storm 1 looks like a stinker on the GFS. Pretty solid ridge early next week, Chicago looks torchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 At some point one would think the crazy pattern of the long range EPS would pan out..The year of wild swings shall continue...at least since January... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Storm 1 looks like a stinker on the GFS. Pretty solid ridge early next week, Chicago looks torchy. Follows climatology almost perfectly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 The year of wild swings shall continue...at least since January...One end of the wild has been much more pronounced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 One end of the wild has been much more pronounced There is no doubt the warmth has been dominant...not sure why you think anyone suggests otherwise. The "muted" PV is eventually going to "chill" the overall pattern from where it's been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 The trend doesnt seem to be the friend of significant snow http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031812/gfs_asnow_us_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 The trend doesnt seem to be the friend of significant snow Just enough snow to delay Spring longer. Models are liking that 24-26th for a significant storm in the Great Lakes. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 There is no doubt the warmth has been dominant...not sure why you think anyone suggests otherwise. The "muted" PV is eventually going to "chill" the overall pattern from where it's been. In 5 days there is two pieces with one being over North America. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just enough snow to delay Spring longer. Models are liking that 24-26th for a significant storm in the Great Lakes. The last 2 weeks have been spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 The last 2 weeks have been spring It doesn't seem like it yet. Grass is slightly greener, but that's about it.Spring is the shortest season around here thanks to the lake. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 It doesn't seem like it yet. Grass is slightly greener, but that's about it.Spring is the shortest season around here thanks to the lake.http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthTDeptMRCC.png That looks like spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 That looks like spring For me personally, it has to "look" like spring. Signs of spring are showing up in terms of birds and Daffodils, but the constant back and forth with temperatures doesn't scream spring. And that map is too warm along the lake. +4.1° hereIt's typical early Spring weather here, not full blown Spring like you have been getting. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal. EURO has the storm late next Thursday/Friday again. Some wet snow from KC to this area and into northern lower MI. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 For me personally, it has to "look" like spring. Signs of spring are showing up in terms of birds and Daffodils, but the constant back and forth with temperatures doesn't scream spring. And that map is too warm along the lake. +4.1° hereIt's typical early Spring weather here, not full blown Spring like you have been getting.Gotcha didnt realize you were referring to your microclimate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Gotcha didnt realize you were referring to your microclimate Believe me it would be nice if warm spells wouldn't get interrupted by 15-20 degree shifts in temperatures with the flip of the wind. Leaves come out of the trees a good 2 weeks, sometimes three weeks later than areas a county over. Nice to have the free AC come July and August though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Almost every single decent snowstorm here in SMI has been followed by the awful d3 significant warm-up. That's why a season that has managed to deliver a little over 50% of my record winter of 2 yrs ago feels light-years more lame. Nearly 52" on the season and it's been like "what winter?". Hardly pushed a shovel between the warm ground and sudden melt-offs. Wouldn't be surprised that yet another decent snow fall could happen and also vanish just as quickly as the Nov. 21st foot-plus did. Due to this trend, I've actually been full in for spring the past 2-wks and have almost zero interest in dealing with more snow this season. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 18, 2016 Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z EPS/Control smoke parts of IA/MN/WI over the next 1-2 weeks...crazy pattern if any close to that verifies...end of the month still looks like it may produce the steepest departures from normal. That has been a constant during all these warmest of El-nino months. The last (10) days of the month delivered what winter there was. Feb kinda spilled over into 1st bit of March, but we know the wx doesn't look at a calendar. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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