March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Only 39° right now with a solid stratus deck over head. 

 

A bookend storm to start and finish would be fitting for a strong el Niño winter.

[hlcater]

It's 40 and brisk here today. Sun is out though so It doesn't feel as cold.

[Geos]

Total snowfall from a two part system next week.

 

[BrianJK]

Claiming it's not been spring-like because you live lakeside is like claiming it's chilly in a 75 degree house while standing in front of the refridgerator/freezer with the door open. 95% will feel otherswise.

[Madtown]

It's been a great spring so far. Doubting snow as it had disappeared all year...I don't care what model you were looking at all year. Winter is over those calling for snow and cold were wrong those calling for warmer and drier were right. Here's to a fun rest of spring and summer and a great LA Nina winter next year!

[Geos]

Claiming it's not been spring-like because you live lakeside is like claiming it's chilly in a 75 degree house while standing in front of the refridgerator/freezer with the door open. 95% will feel otherswise.

 

Good analogy. It's a typical early Spring pattern right now. Nothing abnormal here lakeside. Slightly warmer than normal, but nothing like areas further west and south. Like I said before, not full blown spring yet here.

Everyone was wearing winter coats today. Only 40° for a high. 

[hlcater]

I got 42 degrees for a high, but as I said earlier it didn't actally feel that chilly, even with the wind.

[Money]

6z GFS is a crush job for the GB area with 12+

 

Good amount of fzr below the snow axis as well and a lot more qpf overall

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160319/06Z/f138/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Compared to 0z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160319/00Z/f144/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

The low actually takes a pretty similar path on 6z GFS but it's about 5-6 MB stronger overall and allows it to draw in more colder air.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160319/00Z/f114/sfcconus.png

 

6z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160319/06Z/f108/sfcconus.png

[NEJeremy]

6z GFS is a crush job for the GB area with 12+

 

Good amount of fzr below the snow axis as well and a lot more qpf overall

LOL

[Money]

Don't worry I'll post pictures

[Tom]

00z Euro tracks the low right over Chicago as the storm goes neg...punishes Wisco...temps in the upper 20's with the snowfall...Euro took a step in the direction of bundling the energy near the Lakes.

 

Snowshoe/Money/WBadgers/WildWisconsin look like they are in a good area...MKE is border line but an interesting storm on the horizon.

 

00z EPS look solid for MN/WI/MI...next 2 weeks look like storms and re-surging cold coming down out of Canada.  PV gets established in southern Canada.  This type of Spring pattern may lead to a memorable one just like some of the strong El Nino's in the past.  Winter's last stance.

[hlcater]

EPS got ensemble member mslp support on tropical tidbits Or has that always been there?

 

Edit: thats weather bell. i got my hopes up just briefly.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z Euro tracks the low right over Chicago as the storm goes neg...punishes Wisco...temps in the upper 20's with the snowfall...Euro took a step in the direction of bundling the energy near the Lakes.

 

Snowshoe/Money/WBadgers/WildWisconsin look like they are in a good area...MKE is border line but an interesting storm on the horizon.

 

00z EPS look solid for MN/WI/MI...next 2 weeks look like storms and re-surging cold coming down out of Canada.  PV gets established in southern Canada.  This type of Spring pattern may lead to a memorable one just like some of the strong El Nino's in the past.  Winter's last stance.

 

Sheboygan to Green Bay and west just crushed by late March standards.  I like this Spring pattern so far, quite active.

[Money]

Gfs similar to 6z surface low is stronger this run tho

 

Still producing 18-24 in spots

[BrianJK]

When does this storm look to hit WI?

[Money]

12z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160319/12Z/f138/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

Ggem coming in big time with 1.5 qpf as well in the snow area

 

Looks similar to gfs

[Money]

GGEM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031912/gem_asnow_us_22.png

[Tom]

12z GFS unleashes the arctic hammer...GoSaints is going to have fun with this one...

[Money]

Using actual ratios on GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160319/12Z/f150/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Total QPF:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160319/12Z/f144/48hqpfmw.png

[Money]

Ukie:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gifood c

 

Really good consistency among the models today

[NEJeremy]

12z GFS unleashes the arctic hammer...GoSaints is going to have fun with this one...

are you talking about the arctic hammer at hour 300?

[Tom]

are you talking about the arctic hammer at hour 300?

That's why he will have fun with it...lol. GEFS/EPS support is there though.

 

 

I'm at the Trunp rally in our town in Fountain Hills and it's a mad house! Once in a lifetime experience.

[Money]

That's why he will have fun with it...lol. GEFS/EPS support is there though.

 

 

I'm at the Trunp rally in our town in Fountain Hills and it's a mad house! Once in a lifetime experience.

 

Ewwwwwww (Really wished Rubio would have stayed in)

[james1976]

Come south!

[Money]

Euro looks interesting

 

Starts out in same exact low spot as ggem gfs etc and then it heads farther south

[gosaints]

12z GFS unleashes the arctic hammer...GoSaints is going to have fun with this one...

As you know I live big dogs.... I have been having fun at your expense since september...

[Stormgeek]

Welp, looks like the sharp cutoff that has been plaguing the northern Twin Cities continues. Hopefully we get hammered here with a model shift or we get absolutely nothing. Always fun to track these, hopefully QPF's stay consistent even thought they seemingly always drop from this far out.

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, models are trending toward the worst case for my area..... warmth and storms well south, heavy snow well north, not much of anything (except chilly and gloomy) along the low track.  The last couple runs of the euro, for Wednesday, have 30s across the northern half of Iowa with low 70s along the Missouri border.

[Tom]

Ewwwwwww (Really wished Rubio would have stayed in)

Little Rubio...couldn't handle Trump...

[Tom]

Back from the rally...it was a fun experience seeing all the support from people who love this nation and are sick and tired of the politicians/congress stripping away at our freedom,  sucking money and jobs out of our country...I can go on and on.  It was a torch out there today and I got burnt up!

 

Meanwhile, here is the 12z Euro...

[NEJeremy]

This isn't the place for political stuff, but really? Trumpf? Anyway, it's been kind of a fun weather day here today. Tons of convective showers are ongoing across the area. It's 38 degrees but with the convective nature we keep getting intermittent heavy snow showers with fat flakes followed by sunshine. Had some heavy sleet with the last shower. No accumulation but it's been our first snow in a month.

trim.99677EE7-ABF9-4B91-A354-6155EBDA5BEF.MOV

[Tom]

This storm has good potential of being huge for Wisco...

[bud2380]

Come on just need a 200 mile shift south. LOL.

[westMJim]

As of now will just hold tight on next weeks system. If we do get snow here it would be what I call a spring heartbreak storm. Have had them in the past.(not many in GR)  here is a list of some big late March into April events here in GR 10.2" March 26th 1970, 8.4" March 23rd 1956 (Had a F5 tornado that was less then a half mile from where my house is now on April 3rd that year)

 http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2011/04/today_marks_55th_anniversary_o.html

back to late March snow storms 7.5" on March 29th 1954 7.8" on April 2nd 1975 8.6 on April 5th 1952 5.0" on April 7th 1965 (after the tornado) and here is one that stands out 11.8" on April 16th 1961 and for one of the latest snow storms here in GR 5.5" on May 9th 1923.  Of course I did not move to Grand Rapids area until 1984 until 1984 I lived in the Bay City Michigan area and here is few of the big spring storms up there. March 23, 1968 11.0" March 25, 1947 13.3" and this one is the biggest March snow storm I have seen in my life time.March 17th 1973 when Bay City Michigan had both a snowstorm and a flood at the same time!!!  in this storm Bay City had 22" of snow

http://www.mybaycity.com/scripts/p3_v2/P3V3-0200.cfm?P3_ArticleID=8917

 

another storm I remember well was the April 2nd storm when Bay City received 14.8"  So while not real common spring snow storms do happen here in Michigan more so "up North"

[Geos]

This storm has good potential of being huge for Wisco...

 

So the EURO is favoring south it seems? I haven't had a chance to look at any models today. 

 

I see on the 18z GFS run, shallow cold air is trying to undercut pretty far south. Holds in the 30s here while areas just north get pounded. 

With the negative NAO and AO this might trend in the direction of the EURO or south.

[Geos]

Back from the rally...it was a fun experience seeing all the support from people who love this nation and are sick and tired of the politicians/congress stripping away at our freedom,  sucking money and jobs out of our country...I can go on and on.  It was a torch out there today and I got burnt up!

 

Meanwhile, here is the 12z Euro...

 

 

Great picture. Looks like everything was orderly. 

 

Today there was some snow showers with temps in the 30s. High of 39°

[gosaints]

So the EURO is favoring south it seems? I haven't had a chance to look at any models today.

 

I see on the 18z GFS run, shallow cold air is trying to undercut pretty far south. Holds in the 30s here while areas just north get pounded.

With the negative NAO and AO this might trend in the direction of the EURO or south.

 

Surprised you think it heads to your backyard...