Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I've noticed some interesting forecasts for this Summer up near the Arctic regions. After a torchy season globally, some models are pointing towards below normal temps up near Siberia/Arctic this Summer. Here is the CFSv2's take... JAMSTEC... Wonder what implications this will have on ice cover up there this Summer. Ice cover would hang on longer. Slower annual melting of the polar ice cap is likely. Colder Arctic Ocean will be the negative feedback. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Here is the latest ECMWF SST forecast for JJA...courtesy JB Is the CFSv2 off its rocker??? Still showing a Nino in the central Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2016 NASA updated their seasonal forecast...Here is the June-Aug period... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png Looks wet in the bread basket of the nation right where it has been real dry of late. July - Sept... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png What's rather peculiar is that not only does the CFSv2, but the NASA model keeping the Arctic regions below normal through Spring/Summer and into early Fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 8, 2016 Report Share Posted April 8, 2016 Here is the latest ECMWF SST forecast for JJA...courtesy JB Is the CFSv2 off its rocker??? Still showing a Nino in the central Pacific. the latest drought monitor shows drought conditions spreading north to Nebraska. Dry as a bone here. Thank god for the the blizzard in February. Tom, I sure hope the NASA forecast verifies for the Central Plains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2016 20160405_usdm_home.png the latest drought monitor shows drought conditions spreading north to Nebraska. Dry as a bone here. Thank god for the the blizzard in February. Tom, I sure hope the NASA forecast verifies for the Central Plains[/quot As soon as the Pacific jet starts cutting underneath the blocking in Canada, most model suggests a wetter pattern east of the Rockies Week 2 and beyond. Trough gets established in the West which usually ushers in storms near the Rockies and brings your region moisture. Btw, I know the feeling when it's bone dry. Ever since I got here in AZ it hasn't rained one drop. Finally, we got some rain last night and you can smell the moisture in the air! Very refreshing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 9, 2016 Report Share Posted April 9, 2016 Dang, despite the El Niño, the California drought has hardly waned. What a shame. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2016 Report Share Posted April 9, 2016 Pacific NW, northern Rockies really improved. Still have that warm pool of water off the West Coast right now. Looking in the long range for this month, I see some warm days, but nothing consistent. Great Lakes are going to stay with the negative departure this month most likely. Keeping my finger crossed that May is closer to normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2016 Latest NASA model update for the summer months...this model is seeing a cool summer in the Plains/Midwest, right in the heartland of the U.S. Anyone to the west or east looks warm. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 9, 2016 Report Share Posted May 9, 2016 Awesome for me. I'll take a cooler summer than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 9, 2016 Report Share Posted May 9, 2016 Latest NASA model update for the summer months...this model is seeing a cool summer in the Plains/Midwest, right in the heartland of the U.S. Anyone to the west or east looks warm. That doesn't make sense for a developing la Nina though. Must be something else at work if it turns out cool/near normal like that. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2016 That doesn't make sense for a developing la Nina though. Must be something else at work if it turns out cool/near normal like that.It does sorta fit this year's LRC though. Let's see how it all plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 9, 2016 Report Share Posted May 9, 2016 Super ridge over the Eastern Pacific into Alaska would probably do the trick. We'll see how long it holds up. Needed this pattern in the winter not summer though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 12, 2016 Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 The JAMSTEC loves me I guess. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 12, 2016 Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!) Negative feedback for the continuing wet conditions it looks like. Humid summer coming up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 Negative feedback for the continuing wet conditions it looks like. Humid summer coming up.Last summer was superb, a little drier with temps in low 80's and 70's most of the time. I think we will see more moisture this summer and the likelihood of humidity is on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 12, 2016 Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif Africa looks toasty everywhere! Wonder if they ever have below normal or down right cold season(s)?? I look at places in the S. Hemi. to see who's having a cold winter down under, and it does not look like too many places are expecting one except central portions of S. America. Seems like we've owned that label the past few years (not this winter Captain Obvious!). Thoughts? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2016 We don't necessarily have a thread for Hurricane season, however, for those planning on vacations down near the Gulf states need to pay attention for developing Hurricanes this summer. As is typical during developing La Nina's, the Atlantic and GOM can be a hot spot for Hurricanes near FL or states nearby. This year's LRC has the area outlined in the hot spot this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 17, 2016 Report Share Posted May 17, 2016 Africa looks toasty everywhere! Wonder if they ever have below normal or down right cold season(s)?? I look at places in the S. Hemi. to see who's having a cold winter down under, and it does not look like too many places are expecting one except central portions of S. America. Seems like we've owned that label the past few years (not this winter Captain Obvious!). Thoughts?These maps have basically looked the same every month for years. Thus the reason why the planet is breaking records every month and year for warmest temps. It's really easy to see why when you look at these global temp maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 I chased in southwest Kansas last night south of Dodge City. Saw probably 10 tornadoes, although it was hard to keep track with tornadoes dropping and lifting. Even had 3 on the ground at the same time from the same storm! I'll post some pics when I get a chance to do some edits. Will be out again tomorrow in northern Kansas as it looks like it could be another big day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 I chased in southwest Kansas last night south of Dodge City. Saw probably 10 tornadoes, although it was hard to keep track with tornadoes dropping and lifting. Even had 3 on the ground at the same time from the same storm! I'll post some pics when I get a chance to do some edits. Will be out again tomorrow in northern Kansas as it looks like it could be another big dayDid you get to see the Bennington-chapman wedge today? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Did you get to see the Bennington-chapman wedge today? No When we came home Tuesday night, we were unsure of whether to go out. The models showed some potential, but the SPC wasn't too optimistic initially for the days chances. I woke up and saw the 2% and figured it would be a good day to rest and to go into work since I knew I would be going out Thursday. So I kind of stopped looking at things for the day Wednesday. When I finally did look again, I saw the mesoscale discussion for Kansas, etc. Almost pulled the trigger, but again chose to stay home. Well the rest is history..... Sucks too, because we probably could have made it down there in time if we had left when I saw the mesoscale discussion about the tornado watch.Of course we chased yesterday with the moderate risk and 15% hatched tornado risk area and saw absolutely nothing as did everyone else. What a horrible day yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 NASA's June updated Outlook for mid/late Summer... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 NASA's June updated Outlook for mid/late Summer... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png HOT SUMMER...bust? I won't complain about a normal season though if it goes that way. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 The central ridge really gets squashed in the medium range. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 The central ridge really gets squashed in the medium range. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060712/gfs_z500a_namer_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060712/gfs_z500a_namer_29.pngThat's a good change from the other day. Really not ready for a heat dome yet. Save it for July or August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2016 Report Share Posted June 8, 2016 That's a good change from the other day. Really not ready for a heat dome yet. Save it for July or August. Yeah it looks like it cools off a bit in your region. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here is TWC's idea of where we are heading July-Sept... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 @ TWC's take. Honestly, whether tele's support it or not, that's been the feel so far and would tend to agree with them. I doubt the trend towards warmer than normal reverses at this point. If anything it we haven't "peaked" yet wrt the heat 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2016 Hard to imagine the Plains to be that cool for the remainder of Summer according to the updated July run of the NASA model... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 JMA's take on the rest of Summer... August... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 11, 2016 Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 I think the general agreement is that after the next 10 days it's just going to be downright warm until summer is over. Still around 30 days for me until the average hottest day of the year but summer hasn't been too brutal so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 It would be typical of a emerging first year la Niña to have a big persistent ridge over the nation's mid section. I suspect the warmth will stretch into September quite a ways. Question is how dry or wet will it be. Been pretty dry around here, locally at least. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 ORD finished up 2.5 degrees above normal and it was a stormy/humid summer since June 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 /\ love the gauges! /\ Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 20, 2016 Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 Looks like summer will stretch its wings right into the Autumn season (Thursday September 22nd, 2016 @ 10:31am I believe). Fall will take a leave of absence for the time being. I guess we all should enjoy this wonderful, warm weather, because who knows what kind of a rough winter might be headed our way for some of us on this forum, if not, all of us. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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