Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Geos]

34/33 had a couple sleet rocks mixed in an hour ago. Not quite as exciting as ripping flakes!

 

Noticing snow on the ground across Lake Mendota. Waunakee and De Forest areas.

 

NAM now takes the low down towards Kokomo and Ft. Wayne, IN.

 

Before the 2nd deformation band gets going.

 

[Money]

HRRR really lights up the radar tonight 35-40 DBZ over SW Wi and ia/mn

[FarmerRick]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051_radar.gif

[Geos]

HRRR really lights up the radar tonight 35-40 DBZ over SW Wi and ia/mn

 

NAM continuing with the snow around here.

 

[gosaints]

Sleet didnt last long back to light snow

[Money]

HRRR continuing to shift the snow line farther south towards the end of it's run

[Money]

19z HRRR with it still snowing:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160323/1900Z/f015/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

RAP keeps the low pretty far south:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160323/19Z/f18/crefptypeconus.png

[jaster220]

Yeah something like that. The EURO really gets the second deformation band going tomorrow at this time. Showing snow here by 4pm. If the EURO continues to run too warm it may be earlier for both of us and maybe you could get some snow too.

 

Haha. You forgot where KRMY is. I don't think even the Euro shows more than a flake or two for mby, but no-foul since I don't really want any more of the SN. When it flashed 2 feet the other day, that I was interested in  but not nuisance dustings. We capped off our season with back-to-back legit WSWarned events here in SCMI, so zero complaints from me wrt seeing decent snowfall this month. Enjoy what you get over there, hope it rocks for y'all.   

[gosaints]

HRRR continuing to shift the snow line farther south towards the end of it's run

KLSE makes mention of the HRRR focusing the best stuff across northern Iowa.  They feel its an outlier but something to watch

[gosaints]

Radar already showing the instable look around here

[james1976]

What a nasty cutoff on the southern edge. Riding the fence here.

[Geos]

RAP keeps the low pretty far south:

 

 

That's close to where the EURO has it.

[Money]

Nice defo band forming at the end of the run on hrrr for northern il

[Geos]

Haha. You forgot where KRMY is. I don't think even the Euro shows more than a flake or two for mby, but no-foul since I don't really want any more of the SN. When it flashed 2 feet the other day, that I was interested in  but not nuisance dustings. We capped off our season with back-to-back legit WSWarned events here in SCMI, so zero complaints from me wrt seeing decent snowfall this month. Enjoy what you get over there, hope it rocks for y'all.   

 

By Battle Creek, that's right. Been at 36° or 37° all day today.

[gosaints]

Much better flake size now.  

[Money]

Much better flake size now.  

 

You're in a good spot. Easily 8+ 

[gosaints]

You're in a good spot. Easily 8+ 

Ya agree if the HRRR is nailing it right now the best stuff will be just to the south.  The flattening of the low path should nail you as well.  Quite common for us to do well in the same systems.

 

Best snow of the day now..  Roads are gonna be nasty when the crap on them now freezes

[Money]

Yeah, not sure about here yet tho. Do like the fact that there's snow on the ground now and we don't have to worry about ground/surface temps cooling and cutting down on accumulation. 

 

Whoever is just north of the sleet/fzr line is going to get pounded. Might be up towards Appleton/Oshkosh more though than on the north side of Fondy

[FV-Mike]

Man, Denver got blasted. Here is a picture from my friends backyard

 

[Geos]

Front hasn't moved all day in IL. Possible that everyone in WI will stay steady in temperatures until really early in the morning as the high pressure flow starts pulling down/in the cold air more.

[Snowshoe]

Snow having a hard time getting going.

[Geos]

Snow having a hard time getting going.

 

Snowing in Wisconsin Rapids at least. 

 

It's coming!

 

GFS in about 10 minutes.

[Geos]

GFS is about 25 miles further south near KC. 

 

Through 24 hours.

 

 

36 hours. Really liking my chances for snow now.

 

[Money]

GFS keeps the main convective precip towards central WI and out towards gosaints area.

 

HRRR/RAP continue to be farther SE with it.

 

RAP:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160323/20Z/f11/crefconus.png

 

HRRR:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160323/2000Z/f011/crefmw.png

Not sure which is right but makes a huge difference in terms of amounts.

[gosaints]

Yep nam gfs versus hrrr rap. the difference between another foot and another 6 inches

[Jaycee]

Snowing good here but no chance we get 8" or more. Just a tad too far north.

[Geos]

35° with light rain blowing sideways here. Yuck -

 

Been hearing of scattered sleet reports west of Milwaukee.

 

Snowing in Mequon.

 

[Geos]

Here's the front. More or less along the MO/IA line to Peoria and just south of Kankakee.

 

[Snowshoe]

Starting to crank now.

[Geos]

Looks like Red Wing is getting slammed.

 

Camera at Rosemount, MN. 6" or so...

 

[Tom]

That defo band is starting to get its act together...watching the TWC live as I sit here in AZ. Rooting for you guys in MN/IA/WI to get those big totals!

[Tom]

Thunder snow in NE which will swing over into parts of N IA/S MN and eventually C WI... What a potent looking storm!

[Geos]

Northern Iowa and southern MN are going to light up with snow and sleet by 1z. 

 

Rain/snow line at Grand Island now.

[gosaints]

Looks like rap hrrr have come more in line with other models around here

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS keeps the main convective precip towards central WI and out towards gosaints area.

 

HRRR/RAP continue to be farther SE with it.

 

RAP:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160323/20Z/f11/crefconus.png

 

HRRR:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160323/2000Z/f011/crefmw.png

Not sure which is right but makes a huge difference in terms of amounts.

 

Do you know what the precip type is on those?  If it's sleet would be cool to witness thundersleet for the second time this year.

[Madtown]

Wind shift from south east to north east here?

[Geos]

Not sure if thunder will make it this far north, but thunder sleet is very cool. 

 

RAP at 16z.

 

[Money]

HRRR really south now with the surface low:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160323/2300Z/f010/sfcmw.png

[Madtown]

Almost outta the north? 33atm