April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Up to 72 here now at 10:30 in the morning.

[Front Ranger]

Up to 72 here now at 10:30 in the morning.

 

Summer is peaking really early.

[TT-SEA]

Summer is peaking really early.

 

I guess so!  

[Jesse]

Summer is peaking really early.

We can hope!

 

Maybe anomaly wise.

[TT-SEA]

Well... in 1983 it had barely gotten into the 60s at this point in the year here.   And in early April we were in the midst of a 3-week rainy period with highs in the 50s.   FWIW.   

[Jesse]

Well... in 1983 it had barely gotten into the 60s at this point in the year here. And in early April we were in the midst of a 3-week rainy period with highs in the 50s. FWIW.

I might be right about the anomaly thing. PDX's high is forecast to be about 25 degrees above average today. In July that would put us in all-time record high territory.

[Deweydog]

100 this afternoon in Newport?

[TT-SEA]

I might be right about the anomaly thing. PDX's high is forecast to be about 25 degrees above average today. In July that would put us in all-time record high territory.

 

Absolutely... hard to achieve 25 degrees above normal for high ever around here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Klamath Falls had a low of 35 degrees this morning. If we get 80+ today that will be an impressive diurnal change for April standards. This looks a lot like an October warm spell where K-Falls can easily come from a hard freeze/fog to 80-85 within 12 hours.

 

I have seen many days in April with low changes between 15-30 degrees from low-high. These few days will surely look out of place this month.

[Timmy Supercell]

Absolutely... hard to achieve 25 degrees above normal for high ever around here.

 

My average high in early April is 54 in K-Falls. I could potentially see 30+ above normal today.

[Phil]

Queuing Tim, out of the 7 (maybe 8) viable analogs for this summer, there is one analog that throws a bone to the warm summer idea, and it's 1942. On paper, low-freq forcing wise, it's as good an analog as any. Even had the wider HCs and +PDO/+QBO, with a June/July transition to La Niña under a +IO after a multi year +ENSO. Very good large scale analog, up there with 1983/1988.

 

That said, it has yet to show any resemblance to 2016, at any point in time since January, both in terms of forcing progression and strat/NAM feedback(s). I'm not sure why it behaved in the manner it did. Might be related to solar forcing/out-of-sync SH SAM/cell network feeding SH subtropics, or the weaker Niño/subsequent forcing regression might be involved, but it's an outlier as of now.

[Jesse]

Queuing Tim, out of the 7 (maybe 8) viable analogs for this summer, there is one analog that throws a bone to the warm summer idea, and it's 1942. On paper, low-freq forcing wise, it's as good an analog as any. Even had the wider HCs and +PDO/+QBO, with a June/July transition to La Niña under a +IO after a multi year +ENSO. Very good large scale analog, up there with 1983/1988.

 

That said, it has yet to show any resemblance to 2016, at any point in time since January, both in terms of forcing progression and strat/NAM feedback(s). I'm not sure why it behaved in the manner it did. Might be related to solar forcing/out-of-sync SH SAM/cell network feeding SH subtropics, or the weaker Niño/subsequent forcing regression might be involved, but it's an outlier as of now.

Cover those bases.

 

I'm sure this summer will be above average overall. But still cooler than the last few.

[Front Ranger]

I guess so!  

 

10:30 am on April 7...could be earliest peak ever.

[Jesse]

Today reminds me a lot of an early September warm spell, mechanics wise.

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely... hard to achieve 25 degrees above normal for high ever around here.

 

Yup. Although spring is the time of year it's happened most often in the past. The record for max above normal for Landsburg is +35, from 5/28/83. Second is +31, from 3/18/28, and 5/26-27, 2005.

[TT-SEA]

Queuing Tim, out of the 7 (maybe 8) viable analogs for this summer, there is one analog that throws a bone to the warm summer idea, and it's 1942. On paper, low-freq forcing wise, it's as good an analog as any. Even had the wider HCs and +PDO/+QBO, with a June/July transition to La Niña under a +IO after a multi year +ENSO. Very good large scale analog, up there with 1983/1988.

 

That said, it has yet to show any resemblance to 2016, at any point in time since January, both in terms of forcing progression and strat/NAM feedback(s). I'm not sure why it behaved in the manner it did. Might be related to solar forcing/out-of-sync SH SAM/cell network feeding SH subtropics, or the weaker Niño/subsequent forcing regression might be involved, but it's an outlier as of now.

 

 

1988 and 1995 were above normal for the July-September period here.   1995 was way above normal in July and September.   

 

Plus we have persistence on our side... its been warm lately.

[James Jones]

81 at PDX at 12:53.

[Phil]

Cover those bases.

 

I'm sure this summer will be above average overall. But still cooler than the last few.

Haha, just putting information out there.

 

The first half of summer looks warmer than average, definitely. However, I can't find much support for a warm second half of summer, minus 1942. I've expanded my analog field and I'm still getting the same large scale results, with most years flipping cool during June/July, a few in August.

 

My forecast, using a somewhat larger analog field, remains unchanged. Anticipating a warmer than average A/M/J aggregate, and a cooler than average J/A/S aggregate.

[Phil]

1988 and 1995 were above normal for the July-September period here. 1995 was way above normal in July and September.

 

Plus we have persistence on our side... its been warm lately.

No, they weren't warmer than normal. We went over this.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, just putting information out there.

 

The first half of summer looks warmer than average, definitely. However, I can't find much support for a warm second half of summer, minus 1942.

 

My forecast, using a somewhat larger analog field, remains unchanged. Anticipating a warmer than average A/M/J aggregate, and a cooler than average J/A/S aggregate.

 

 

In many ways... that is the best of both worlds.   Early summer tends to be cool and later summer tends to be hot.    So we could end up with a long, wonderfully warm summer without extreme heat with your forecast verifying.

 

That being said... almost every year I look at seems to have a considerably wet and cloudy June.    So I expect that will likely be the case this year.

[Jesse]

1988 and 1995 were above normal for the July-September period here. 1995 was way above normal in July and September.

 

Plus we have persistence on our side... its been warm lately.

I mostly agree with your results, but not your reasoning. The persistence thing obviously doesn't apply forever. At what point does one stop persisting with persistence? If anything is going to shake things up and break us out of the pattern we've been stuck in for years now, it is the ENSO state changing in a meaningful way over the summer.

[TT-SEA]

No, they weren't warmer than normal. We went over this.

 

 

July and September of 1995 were way above normal around this area.   And not just one station.   

[TT-SEA]

I mostly agree with your results, but not your reasoning. The persistence thing obviously doesn't apply forever. At what point does one stop persisting with persistence? If anything is going to shake things up and break us out of the pattern we've been stuck in for years now, it is the ENSO state changing in a meaningful way over the summer.

 

 

Too late for this summer.   I think it will be warm through September and then the shake up happens.     It won't last forever.   2017 will be cooler than normal.

[Jesse]

July and September of 1995 were way above normal around this area. And not just one station.

September 1995 was PDX's second warmest on record before 2014 came along and knocked 1994 into second and 1995 into third.

[TT-SEA]

September 1995 was PDX's second warmest on record before 2014 came along and knocked 1994 into second and 1995 into third.

 

 

No... it was cold according to Phil.

[Jesse]

81 at PDX, their second earliest such occurrence on record.

[Jesse]

No... it was cold according to Phil.

Phil is obviously starting to hedge his forecasts a bit. It will likely be an above average summer. Just not as ridiculous as the last couple? Pretty please?

[Phil]

July and September of 1995 were way above normal around this area.   And not just one station.

 

[TT-SEA]

Phil is obviously starting to hedge his forecasts a bit. It will likely be an above average summer. Just not as ridiculous as the last couple? Pretty please?

 

 

It can't be as warm as the last couple.   

[Phil]

No... it was cold according to Phil.

You said 1988 and 1995. I thought you were combining them.

 

I'm not even including 1995 in my analogs.

[Deweydog]

The the fun irony will be when our area is ravaged by the Cascadia earthquake Memorial Day Weekend and we all die horrific deaths before this summer even starts.

 

I think at this point we should be more focused on the potential and analogs for an apocalyptic earthquake/tsunami/marine push perfect storm.

[Jesse]

The the fun irony will be when our area is ravaged by the Cascadia earthquake Memorial Day Weekend and we all die horrific deaths before this summer even starts.

 

I think at this point we should be more focused on the potential and analogs for an apocalyptic earthquake/tsunami/marine push perfect storm.

Nostradewey?

[TT-SEA]

You said 1988 and 1995. I thought you were combining them.

 

I'm not even including 1995 in my analogs.

 

 

You had 3 analogs a couple days ago... 1983, 1988, and 1995.    You also had 1936 and 1998 earlier.

 

Now its all different??   

[Phil]

Phil is obviously starting to hedge his forecasts a bit. It will likely be an above average summer. Just not as ridiculous as the last couple? Pretty please?

Lol, I'm definitely not hedging anything. If I were hedging, I'd express more uncertainty.

 

All I did was point out that one analog (1942) appears to diverge from the rest in terms of its pattern progression. It was much colder than average during the A/M/J aggregate, and much warmer than average during the J/A/S aggregate, essentially the opposite of where we're heading now.

 

If pointing that out is considered hedging, then I hedge basically every forecast I make.

[Phil]

You had 3 analogs a couple days ago... 1983, 1988, and 1995. You also had 1936 and 1998 earlier.

 

Now its all different??

No, I apply I weighting scheme based on their large scale similarities. I weight 1995 positively for QBO/PDO, and negatively for ENSO/IO, and NAM/strat too for other reasons. It's a net negative.

 

I included it for ENSO/QBO to represent an analogous boreal spring forcing transition.

[TT-SEA]

No, I apply I weighting scheme based on their large scale similarities. I weight 1995 positively for QBO/PDO, and negatively for ENSO/IO, and NAM/strat too for other reasons. It's a net negative.

 

I included it for ENSO/QBO to represent an analogous boreal spring forcing transition.

 

 

OMG... so what are the analogs today??      

[Jesse]

It can't be as warm as the last couple.

Dewey thinks it can, and he basically controls our weather!

[bainbridgekid]

63 and raining here in LA.

 

You're welcome guys.

[Jesse]

63 and raining here in LA.

 

You're welcome guys.

You should be apologizing for stealing our rain!

[BLI snowman]

No... it was cold according to Phil.

 

1995 was a warm JJAS overall. It did have a cool August, we have yet to see a cooler one since.