April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

One aspect shared by every single summer analog is the development of a furnace-ridge over the central/eastern states during J/A/S. I literally cannot find an analog without this feature present, so it might be a rough year for a lot of people, in terms of heat/drought.

 

In most of the analog years, this blowtorch continues right into the following autumn/winter seasons.

[TT-SEA]

The power of greyskull only goes so far. Dewey friendly summers with piles of 90 degree days can't last forever.

 

 

90s suck... too hot and they lead to strong marine pushes.

 

Give me a nice steady dose of upper 70s to mid 80s all summer!

[Jesse]

That is precisely why its nice.   

 

That's what I think about warm days, except those aren't so temporary lately. 

[Front Ranger]

Good god can we fast forward 10 weeks so we can stop fretting about analogs and start fretting about the models and the number of consecutive 90+ degree days they show?

 

Tim just really wants to make sure everyone knows no analog can bring him down. No amount of blue in Phil's maps will make him blue. 

 

It's going to be NICE.

[Jesse]

90s suck... too hot and they lead to strong marine pushes.

 

Give me a nice steady dose of upper 70s to mid 80s all summer!

 

I would actually agree with you, maybe subtract five degrees off of either end of that. Although last summer we got the worst of both worlds down here, with tons of 90s and no strong marine pushes to show for it.

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly evening here.  Down to 40.6F.  Had about 1/4" of rain today and it got a little breezy at times. 

[TT-SEA]

Tim just really wants to make sure everyone knows no analog can bring him down. No amount of blue in Phil's maps will make him blue. 

 

It's going to be NICE.

 

 

This is true!  

[Phil]

This is probably the strongest death-ridge signal you'll ever see with a sample size this large.

 

We have 11 analog years with an average J/A/S temperature anomaly greater than +1C over the central states. Impressive!

 

[Deweydog]

The power of greyskull only goes so far. Dewey friendly summers with piles of 90 degree days can't last forever.

I know the thought of it keeps you up at night, but all summers are Dewey-friendly. I grew up at the coast for crying out loud. Many a summer without an 80 degree day, my friend. All enjoyable, probably because weather didn't consume me.

[Jesse]

This is probably the strongest death-ridge signal you'll ever see with a sample size this large. Impressive.

 

image.png

 

Washington blue! Tim no like!

[Jesse]

I know the thought of it keeps you up at night, but all summers are Dewey-friendly. I grew up at the coast for crying out loud. Many a summer without an 80 degree day, my friend. All enjoyable, probably because weather didn't consume me.

 

What changed? Close to 6,000 posts and counting!

[Deweydog]

One aspect shared by every single summer analog is the development of a furnace-ridge over the central/eastern states during J/A/S. I literally cannot find an analog without this feature present, so it might be a rough year for a lot of people, in terms of heat/drought.

 

In most of the analog years, this blowtorch continues right into the following autumn/winter seasons.

It definitely feels like someone in the U.S. is gonna fry this summer.

[Deweydog]

What changed? Close to 6,000 posts and counting!

The internet, doofus.

[Phil]

Washington blue! Tim no like!

Yikes.

 

The mean is -0.4C, or around -1F for J/A/S, which according to Tim would still be "nice" by J/A/S standards. It's a win-win!

[Front Ranger]

This is true!  

 

As true as OLM's temp anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Yikes.

 

The mean is -0.4C, or around -1F for J/A/S, which according to Tim would still be "nice" by J/A/S standards. It's a win-win!

 

Yes... those were are all really nice JAS periods here.     JAS is always decent.

 

But a warm AMJ and a cooler than normal JAS can be truly a great summer in terms of duration and consistency.

 

Much better than wading through cold and wet until July like will probably happen in 2017.      

[Jesse]

The internet, doofus.

 

[Deweydog]

Could be some no way proclamations coming up if the models keep coming in warmer for this weekend/early next week.

[Jesse]

Could be some no way proclamations coming up if the models keep coming in warmer for this weekend/early next week.

Ready for another contest? Winning two in a row would be kind of fun.

[TT-SEA]

Could be some no way proclamations coming up if the models keep coming in warmer for this weekend/early next week.

 

 

Monday and Tuesday look like the really warm days on the 00Z GFS.

[Deweydog]

Ready for another contest? Winning two in a row would be kind of fun.

Chills and thrills.

[snow_wizard]

This is probably the strongest death-ridge signal you'll ever see with a sample size this large.

 

We have 11 analog years with an average J/A/S temperature anomaly greater than +1C over the central states. Impressive!

 

image.png

 

Interesting.  Maybe the torching we have seen the past couple of years will move east of the Rockies later in the year.

[Jesse]

Interesting.  Maybe the torching we have seen the past couple of years will move east of the Rockies later in the year.

 

Absolutely love the sounds of that.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutely love the sounds of that.

 

I'm really feeling it for cold the second half of this year.  I still remember how awesome the flip was in years like 1983 and 1992.

[Phil]

Absolutely love the sounds of that.

You've officially been blacklisted.

 

There's nothing more physically, mentally, and emotionally challenging than a blowtorch summer in the swamplands.

[snow_wizard]

You've officially been blacklisted.

 

There's nothing more physically, mentally, and emotionally challenging than a blowtorch summer in the swamplands.

 

I can imagine.  At least most of the hot days here are with low humidity.

[Phil]

Interesting. Maybe the torching we have seen the past couple of years will move east of the Rockies later in the year.

Yeah, that's the way it looks as of now. There's a solid analog consensus this go around.

[Jesse]

You've officially been blacklisted.

 

There's nothing more physically, mentally, and emotionally challenging than a blowtorch summer in the swamplands.

I feel your pain, but we've been stuck in torch mode for 2-3 years now. Time for a change.

[IbrChris]

Another taste of summer coming up. Maybe we will beat 2004 for the warmest April at PDX (1940-present).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The past few years have kind of numbed me to warm anomalies. 

[Jesse]

Another taste of summer coming up. Maybe we will beat 2004 for the warmest April at PDX (1940-present).

 

There's almost no way we don't. We are already running two degrees warmer than 2004 with another extended stretch of ridiculousness on the way.

 

If this April sets a monthly record, that will mean that 7/12 months have set new monthly records for all-time warmth at PDX in the 2014-16 period. A couple of those on multiple occasions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There's almost no way we don't. We are already running two degrees warmer than 2004 with another extended stretch of ridiculousness on the way.

 

If this April sets a monthly record, that will mean that 7/12 months have set new monthly records for all-time warmth at PDX in the 2014-16 period. A couple of those on multiple occasions.

Making up for the ridiculous cold of 2007 through 2012.

[Jesse]

Making up for the ridiculous cold of 2007 through 2012.

Oh I know. What a hellish period for warmth lovers that was. How many record cold months did PDX set in that period?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh I know. What a hellish period for warmth lovers that was. How many record cold months did PDX set in that period?

 

There may have been a record "cold" May in there somewhere...2011? Maybe not at PDX, but some places. 

[Jesse]

There may have been a record "cold" May in there somewhere...2011? Maybe not at PDX, but some places.

Yeah, that was one of the months that came to mind for me too. Not coldest May on record at PDX, but definitely in the top 5.

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows a faster cool down early next week. Would be nice to see that trend continue.

[James Jones]

12z Euro is faster and more aggressive with the cooldown than last night's run. Decent ensemble support too.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro is faster and more aggressive with the cooldown than last night's run. Decent ensemble support too.

 

 

Actually the ECMWF ensemble mean is weaker, slower with the cool down.   

 

Would not surprise me if it crashes on Monday night though.   

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS disagrees with the Tuesday crash and keeps it warm as the cut-off low meanders way offshore.

[TT-SEA]

Actually... the 18Z GFS is not too far behind the other runs now that its out farther.