ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 How is this for torchiness and the heat never ends?EC_BCweather Despite a sweltering first half, May actually came in near normal in terms of temperature #BCweather https://t.co/fJO68LBlei01/06/16 9:05 am https://twitter.com/ec_bcweather/status/738038835607707648 Vancouver Island finished with above normal temps, but much of the province was normal or BELOW normal in temps.2nd warmest May on record here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 0z gfs ensembles trended warmer in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 00Z ECMWF is a little cooler for Sunday than its 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 00Z ECMWF is a little cooler for Sunday than its 12Z run. Should be close for triple digits down here, climo certainly isn't in favor of it seeing as it's only happened twice before late June (May 1983 and June 1970 in downtown Portland). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Tonight's Euro looks different from previous Euro runs which looked different from previous Euro runs before that. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Moderate rain here this morning. Picked up just under .50 here so far... while SEA and OLM got almost nothing. Looks like the Portland area also got some rain. 00Z ECMWF is going with the trough for next Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully another chance of rain for everyone. The pattern in the long term is looking more benign and shifted north. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls15/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls15-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-z3kxec.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 SEA really has missed out by a large amount. I get that it is due to the direction of the storms and the shadowing but there have been several times in the last week or two where I thought the measuring device at SEA was broken or not measuring accurately. There were several days recently I had between .5 and 1" of rain and SEA had nothing and I only live about 12 miles north. I would watch a big rain cloud go over SEA and they would only pick up .01 and places nearby would pick up .15 or .20. It just seems a little odd.Moderate rain here this morning. Picked up just under .50 here so far... while SEA and OLM got almost nothing. Looks like the Portland area also got some rain. 00Z ECMWF is going with the trough for next Wednesday and Thursday so hopefully another chance of rain for everyone. The pattern in the long term is looking more benign and shifted north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 If PDX hits 100 on Sunday, it would be the only time they have gotten that hot this early aside from 1983... Fortunately for us that is a terrible analog that we will never follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 SEA really has missed out by a large amount. I get that it is due to the direction of the storms and the shadowing but there have been several times in the last week or two where I thought the measuring device at SEA was broken or not measuring accurately. There were several days recently I had between .5 and 1" of rain and SEA had nothing and I only live about 12 miles north. I would watch a big rain cloud go over SEA and they would only pick up .01 and places nearby would pick up .15 or .20. It just seems a little odd. Yeah... I was just thinking this morning that there might be an issue with the precip sensor at SEA. Still have heavy drizzle here and up to .65 on the day. A great soaking rain here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 If PDX hits 100 on Sunday, it would be the only time they have gotten that hot this early aside from 1983... Fortunately for us that is a terrible analog that we will never follow. We won't follow 1983... not even close locally. And one day is not a good guide anyways. 2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 We won't follow 1983... not even close locally. And one day is not a good guide anyways. 2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather. Forum fantastic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Analog list from CPC also showing early June of 1998 on the list lately. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Analog list from CPC also showing early June of 1998 on the list lately.Any years you don't like showing up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Any years you don't like showing up?Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective. There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value. 1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective. There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value. 1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course.That didn't really answer my question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 That didn't really answer my question.There are years with all kinds of different results for summer on the list. Point stands though. 1951 has been high on the list. That was a great summer in my opinion. But it's probably meaningless since ENSO was going in the opposite direction. Of course last summer was going in the opposite ENSO direction and still was a summer with an early peak and then a steady decline to below normal by September. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 June 4th will be an easy record breaker in Klamath Falls, 89 was the record in 1969. Forecast to be 96 (was forecast to be 98 earlier). It may match record June high temperature of 98 set in 1992 and 2015. And if 100 happens, I beat record earliest 100+ by around a month. (07/02/2013 is the earliest and my last). They are more rare than in Portland. Based on averages, maybe every 8 occurrences in PDX there would be 1 in K-Falls. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 12Z GFS is troughalicious. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 12Z GFS is troughalicious. I was wondering why it took you so long to post about it. That explains it. Not even any maps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 We will hear about the 12z Euro trending warmer 25 minutes early if it does, though. Objective analysis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 I was wondering why it took you so long to post about it. That explains it. Not even any maps. On my phone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 We will hear about the 12z Euro trending warmer 25 minutes early if it does, though. Objective analysis. Not with maps until after 1 when I get back home. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 We won't follow 1983... not even close locally. And one day is not a good guide anyways. 2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.Looks more like 1980 to me, at least over the Western Hemisphere. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Very nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Really need to filter out years that were totally different from an ENSO perspective. There are a wide variety of years showing up... but I am looking for years with a Nino to Nina transition as having some possible future predictive value. 1998 has been on our list of possible analogs so its interesting when it shows up on the analog list multiple times. Might not mean anything, but Nino to Nina years carry more weight of course.The years showing up most frequently since April have been 1983, 1988, 1973, 1995, 1966, 2007, 1978, 1993, 1980, 1991, 1994, 1959, 2005, 1954. Actually have seldom seen 1998. It started showing yesterday, but it's still a terrible analog, and has shown no predictive value over the US this spring/summer. In fact, 1998 featured the driest May on record in the US. Obviously, nothing like 2016 from a pattern perspective, in the long run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 We won't follow 1983... not even close locally. And one day is not a good guide anyways. 2003 is probably a better match to this pattern anyways. 1983 was hot flash amidst cool, wet weather.Over the US as a whole, we'll likely follow a blend of 1978, 1980, 1983, 1988, and 1995 fairly closely, in my opinion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 The years showing up most frequently since April have been 1983, 1988, 1973, 1995, 1966, 2007, 1978, 1993, 1980, 1991, 1994, 1959, 2005, 1954. Actually have seldom seen 1998. It started showing yesterday, but it's still a terrible analog, and has shown no predictive value over the US this spring/summer. In fact, 1998 featured the driest May on record in the US. Obviously, nothing like 2016 from a pattern perspective, in the long run. Where we have been has no implication on where we are going! At least that is what you taught me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Where we have been has no implication on where we are going! At least that is what you taught me. True, my reasons for disliking 1998 as an analog have nothing to do with how frequently it shows up on an image during a certain few weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 True, my reasons for disliking 1998 as an analog have nothing to do with how frequently it shows up on an image during a certain few weeks. Understood. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 12Z ECMWF showing another heat wave for next weekend now. Maps to follow when I get home. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 12Z ECMWF showing another heat wave for next weekend now. Maps to follow when I get home. Thou shalt be judged!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Poor blob. Developing low frequency clockwise flow should finish it off by July. Might briefly resurge during the first half of June, however. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.2.2016.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Very nice. image.png Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution. Yeah, there's widespread suggestion for a GOA ridge during week2 now, though it'll root farther west/offshore overall compared the current one, and eventually the ridging should set up completely offshore. Almost like a drawn out version of discontinuous retrogression. All in all, it fits with the idea of a warm first half of June, followed by a much cooler second half. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Yeah, there's widespread suggestion for a GOA ridge during week2 now, though it'll root farther west/offshore overall compared the current one, and eventually the ridging should set up completely offshore. Almost like a drawn out version of discontinuous retrogression. All in all, it fits with the idea of a warm first half of June, followed by a much cooler second half. Don't tell the GFS. It will probably figure it out soon enough on its own. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Those warm, ridgy members are a possible hint of a pending switch to the ECMWF solution. Good thing. It would have been a shame to avoid another record warm month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Don't tell the GFS. It will probably figure it out soon enough on its own.http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/ECMWF-GFS-NAM_cartoon.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Good thing. It would have been a shame to avoid another record warm month.You'll enjoy the second half of June. The first half was always going to torch. Probably won't be a +4 month like I was originally thinking, but still easily +2.5 region wide. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 You'll enjoy the second half of June. The first half was always going to torch. Probably won't be a +4 month like I was originally thinking, but still easily +2 to +3 regionwide. Yeah... even 1889 had a relatively cool second part of June after a torchy first half. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Also, FWIW, low pass E-IO (80-110E) forcing and a dropping AAM integral now showing up on all the long range guidance, including the EPS, CFS, and now the GEFS/NAEFS/CMC ensembles starting late June, so agreement growing on that one. Glad I lowered my July anomalies in the contest, despite the timing/amplitude uncertainties. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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