June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Yes. I do remember that.

 

12Z Canadian is also much less extreme than the 12Z GFS.

 

Before June is over... there will be another significant warm spell. Count on it.

Whatever gets you to ridge at night.

[Timmy Supercell]

Last 90 of the season?

 

I hope you realize we're in meteorological summer now as of June 1st.

 

More 90's are coming. lol

[Bryant]

I hope you realize we're in meteorological summer now as of June 1st.

 

More 90's are coming. lol

 

Not necessarily 

[Timmy Supercell]

Not necessarily 

 

Averages say yes. There were maybe 1 or 2 summers I recall that didn't have 90's in July/August/September. Compared to the other 150 (or so..)

 

Averages Trump all.

[Jesse]

I am on vacation from June 28th-July 5th...I want that time period as the next significant warm spell!!

Fortunately, Tim is calling for an early July troughy period. Unless he changed his tune again.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever gets you to ridge at night.

 

 

The next 4 days look generally pleasant directly under a ULL/trough... partly cloudy with a few showers and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 up here.

 

Troughing is very pleasant to me as well in the summer.    The only thing I really dislike is being trapped under a stagnant, thick marine layer and that does not usually happen with a ULL overhead.

 

I am going by the general cycle of patterns here and reporting what I think will happen.   I don't want the heat of last weekend all summer by any means.    Just making a guess at what will happen.  

[TT-SEA]

Tim is calling for an early July troughy period. Unless he changed his tune again.

 

 

Its all about timing.   I think a warm spell during the last week of June and troughy period during the first week of July is a pretty good call right now.

[Jesse]

Averages say yes. There were maybe 1 or 2 summers I recall that didn't have 90's in July/August/September. Compared to the other 150 (or so..)

 

Averages Trump all.

I was being sarcastic in my statement last night. Obviously we have more 90s on the way at some point. Although hopefully we can avoid a boatload like the last few summers.

[Timmy Supercell]

I was being sarcastic in my statement last night. Obviously we have more 90s on the way at some point. Although hopefully we can avoid a boatload like the last few summers.

 

Medford will see it's 4th consecutive hottest summer on record.

[Jesse]

Medford will see it's 4th consecutive hottest summer on record.

Averages trump all!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much wetter for tomorrow afternoon... and a little wetter for Friday.    And now drier for Saturday.

 

And much warmer and drier for Sunday.     In fact... it shows a totally sunny afternoon that day with highs in the low to mid 70s with 500mb heights up to 576DM.

[Phil]

Its all about timing. I think a warm spell during the last week of June and troughy period during the first week of July is a pretty good call right now.

I think the second half of July is more likely to be troughy than the first half. Will probably be tough to get persistent west coast ridging of any kind during the second half of summer.

 

I could see a brief warm period sometime during the first half of July.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is much wetter for tomorrow afternoon... and a little wetter for Friday. And now drier for Saturday.

 

And much warmer and drier for Sunday. In fact... it shows a totally sunny afternoon that day with highs in the low to mid 70s with 500mb heights up to 576DM.

Agreed, Sunday looks great.

 

After that the 12z Euro looks pretty troughy for most of next week though. One could even say "crazy" troughy.

[Jesse]

The Euro wants to dig a lobe of the trough offshore by the end of the run, pumping a ridge up over the intermountain west.

 

Euro often has a tendency to dig things too far offshore in the mid-long range. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look.

[Phil]

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Nationwide blowtorch.

 

Coolest relative to average along the west coast, death ridge pattern everywhere else. Worst of it centered in the Southern Plains/Southeast.

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Nationwide blowtorch.

 

Coolest relative to average along the west coast, death ridge pattern everywhere else. Worst of it centered in the Southern Plains/Southeast.

 

 

Awesome... sounds like a July and August of 1988 type pattern.     I think July - September of 1988 was about as perfect as summer gets around here.

[Phil]

Awesome... sounds like a July and August of 1988 type pattern. I think July - September of 1988 was about as perfect as summer gets around here.

Probably. Either that or something out of the dustbowl. Hopefully it's just warm biased, but each run seems to get more impressive with the death ridge.

 

The ridge does propagate eastward each month in the means, though, so the west does cool overall through the summer.

[Timmy Supercell]

Tornadic Supercell right now just passed through Monument, OR. Tornado warned and possible golfball sized hail with 70mph winds. 76.0 dbz. 40k foot top. Couplets on velocity.

 

And I just remembered this was the same day the Long Creek tornado happened back in 1894. D**n, global warming back then too eh.

 

Edit: 1.75" hail (golfball) was reported in Monument.

 

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2dszuo.jpg

http://i66.tinypic.com/11j9kqq.jpg

[Jesse]

As I suspected, the Euro ensemble mean is troughier than the operational, hours 216 and 240.

[MossMan]

Windy, drizzly, and 50's currently.

[Timmy Supercell]

Windy, drizzly, and 50's currently.

 

Windy, mostly clear and mid 70's

 

Just shy of a perfect early summer day here. A storm would just put the frosting on the ice cream cake.

[TT-SEA]

Windy, drizzly, and 50's currently.

 

 

Nice evening here... very comfortable mowing the lawn.   We left it long to handle the heat better but now its time to cut it short again.  

 

Partly cloudy and calm now... quite pleasant out there.

[TT-SEA]

Temp dropped to 60 at SEA late this afternoon with that weak frontal passage but then jumped back up to 65 this evening.

[Jesse]

Temp dropped to 60 at SEA late this afternoon with that weak frontal passage but then jumped back up to 65 this evening.

Acting like a June day out there!

[TT-SEA]

Acting like a June day out there!

 

Yes it is.   

 

It also gets hot in June here at times.   Even back in the 19th century.   That is part of June as well.  

[Front Ranger]

Temp dropped to 60 at SEA late this afternoon with that weak frontal passage but then jumped back up to 65 this evening.

 

Dangerously close to an average day.

 

Some places in western WA will actually end up being below average today. Hope everyone enjoyed the peak of summer!

[TT-SEA]

Dangerously close to an average day.

 

Some places in western WA will actually end up being below average today. Hope everyone enjoyed the peak of summer!

 

Thinking we will manage to get into the 60s on a few days in July still.    Maybe a monthly peak of 70 at SEA.   Probably won't touch 60 in August though.    The Summit at Snoqualmie is hoping to be in full operation by the Labor Day holiday weekend.   They need it... they have missed that critical weekend the last couple years.

[Front Ranger]

Thinking we will manage to get into the 60s on a few days in July still.    Maybe a monthly peak of 70 at SEA.   Probably won't touch 60 in August though.    The Summit at Snoqualmie is hoping to be in full operation by the Labor Day holiday weekend.   They need it... they have missed that critical weekend the last couple years.

 

Extremely possible that SEA has already see the majority of 80+ days they'll see in 2016.

[TT-SEA]

Extremely possible that SEA has already see the majority of 80+ days they'll see in 2016.

 

 

Nahhh... when we reached this same pattern in June of 1988 (with the developing Nina more advanced and the PDO lower) we still had another 25+ days over 80 left and another 8 days in the 90s coming.   Probably add a few more thanks to the higher PDO and a some additional warming of the climate.  

 

Maybe not... but I think it will be plenty warm in July and August and into September.   

[Front Ranger]

Nahhh... when we reached this same pattern in June of 1988 (with the developing Nina more advanced and the PDO lower) we still had another 25+ days over 80 left and another 8 days in the 90s coming.   Probably add a few more thanks to the higher PDO and a some additional warming of the climate.  

 

Maybe not... but I think it will be plenty warm in July and August and into September.   

 

Never get your heart set on a redux of any summer/winter.

 

If SEA sees 8 more 90+ days, I will fly there and kiss the third runway. 

[Jesse]

Yes it is.

 

It also gets hot in June here at times. Even back in the 19th century. That is part of June as well.

Never said it wasn't.

[TT-SEA]

Never get your heart set on a redux of any summer/winter.

 

If SEA sees 8 more 90+ days, I will fly there and kiss the third runway. 

 

 

The ECMWF seasonal outlook indicates the same nationwide torch as 1988.   

 

Of course the details will be different... but I think JAS this year will end up a little warmer than JAS of 1988 here.

 

Looking at it another way... there is little doubt (someone else's favorite term ) that the next 10 days will be the coolest period until maybe late September.  

 

Better book that ticket now to SEA to save on airfare!  

[Bryant]

The ECMWF seasonal outlook indicates the same nationwide torch as 1988.   

 

Of course the details will be different... but I think JAS this year will end up a little warmer than JAS of 1988 here.

 

Looking at it another way... there is little doubt (someone else's favorite term ) that the next 10 days will be the coolest period until maybe late September.  

 

Better book that ticket now to SEA to save on airfare!  

Nationwide torch, with the exception of the West Coast... 

[TT-SEA]

Nationwide torch, with the exception of the West Coast... 

 

 

Just like 1988.   

 

And actually I don't think it really showed anywhere below average.   The West Coast was the coolest in terms of departure from average.    That was also according to Brett Anderson.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS came around to the ECMWF for Sunday... scoring a really nice weekend day with sunshine and temps in the 70s in this troughy pattern is a great thing.  

[Phil]

Just like 1988.

 

And actually I don't think it really showed anywhere below average. The West Coast was the coolest in terms of departure from average. That was also according to Brett Anderson.

West coast is near average on the monthlies. The rest of the country is on fire, especially the southern plains/southeast which are like +10.

 

I think it might be too warm, but we'll see in time.

[Jesse]

The ECMWF seasonal outlook indicates the same nationwide torch as 1988.

 

Of course the details will be different... but I think JAS this year will end up a little warmer than JAS of 1988 here.

 

Looking at it another way... there is little doubt (someone else's favorite term ) that the next 10 days will be the coolest period until maybe late September.

 

Better book that ticket now to SEA to save on airfare!

Also pretty likely the five day warm period over the weekend will be unrivaled the rest of the summer, especially up there.

[TT-SEA]

Also pretty likely the five day warm period over the weekend will be unrivaled the rest of the summer, especially up there.

 

 

Absolutely.    Little doubt and no question... or vice versa.  

[TT-SEA]

West coast is near average on the monthlies. The rest of the country is on fire, especially the southern plains/southeast which are like +10.

 

I think it might be too warm, but we'll see in time.

 

 

Also matches up to 1988 which was almost perfectly normal each month in the JAS period here.

[Phil]

Looking closer at the monthlies, I see a +15 contour on the KS/MO border. Those poor people, lol.

 

Imagine SEA having a July with an average high temperature of 92 degrees. That's what the ECMWF depiction is analogous to in the plains.