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June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

This is the one I use:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkavnmgnam.htm

 

There used to be an easier one that only showed Portland's or Seattle's, but I think that went away.

 

Scroll down and find your city on the left, then scroll to the "850 esnsembles" option on the right. Kind of interesting looking at other cities all over the continent, so that is one perk.

 

Also, the site seems to be in German.

 

 

Thanks!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Here are the only two decent lightning shots I was able to get in Yellowstone.  We had storms on several days, but most were during the day.  Finally this one edged into the overnight a little bit.  T

bainbridgekid
bainbridgekid

Pretty incredible picture of a friend of mine eating fire at Gas Works last night with a huge bolt of lightning behind her.   Photo and impeccable timing cred to Beth Crane.     I saw easily 20+ bolt

Jesse
Jesse

Went whitewater rafting on the White Salmon River today. Not too many heavy showers out that way.   Caught a great rainbow near Beacon Rock on the way home.  

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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00z Euro op and ensembles continue to look troughy through day ten. May need to put that second heatwave contest on the back burner. For now...

 

 

My feeling is that this troughy burst will have run its course by the end of next week and it slowly fades to flat ridging.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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My feeling is that this troughy burst will have run its course by the end of next week and it slowly fades to flat ridging.

 

Hard to say. Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles beyond day 10, and the EURO looked troughy.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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My feeling is that this troughy burst will have run its course by the end of next week and it slowly fades to flat ridging.

The background tendency through the remainder of the summer will be to build heights offshore, most likely, with occasional poleward anticyclonic wavebreaks into the EPO domain. Frequency/amplitude of -PNA/-AAM will increase overall.

 

Probably going to be tough to sustain ridging over the west for more than ~5 days at a time, especially from mid/late July onward.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Nice graphic. I was referring more to summer/early autumn as far as those analogs are concerned, though the -PNA/SE ridge is a given.

 

I have a somewhat different set of analog years going into autumn and winter. All of them are Niña/-QBO. It's still too early to factor anything else in for the time being, although we can probably eliminate some years now.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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The next 45 days on the CFSv2 basically a carbon copy of the ECMWF seasonal, CanSIPS, and NMME.

 

This through July 24th.

 

 

image.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The next 45 days on the CFSv2 basically a carbon copy of the ECMWF seasonal, CanSIPS, and NMME.

 

This through July 24th.

 

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

 

Looks about right.    

 

Perfection out here compared to the rest of the country!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The next 45 days on the CFSv2 basically a carbon copy of the ECMWF seasonal, CanSIPS, and NMME.

 

This through July 24th.

 

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

 

And looks almost exactly like the 1889 and 1988 maps I have seen posted.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Looks of like much of the Portland metro has been or is about to get a good soaking.

 

 

Not sure about down there... but up here the radar is a little misleading.   Looks like we are getting a really good rain but it has just been sprinkles for the most part so far.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Not sure about down there... but up here the radar is a little misleading. Looks like we are getting a really good rain but it has just been sprinkles for the most part so far.

Raining moderately where I am in Vancouver now. The radar has really filled in.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Raining moderately where I am in Vancouver now. The radar has really filled in.

 

 

Picking up here as well... nice soaking rain now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Raining moderately where I am in Vancouver now. The radar has really filled in.

 

Looks like PDX only managed .03 for the day under that band.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Microclimates.

 

No kidding.

 

My point was that it looked like PDX was getting a decent rainfall event but it did not show up in the daily stats.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Left work a little early to get the grass cut, had the petal to the metal as skies darken this afternoon...driving with one had on the wheel of the mower and the other holding my phone checking the radar. Looked very ominous both sky and radar. Got done just as a drop landed on my cheek. And then it cleared up and became a great evening!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Left work a little early to get the grass cut, had the petal to the metal as skies darken this afternoon...driving with one had on the wheel of the mower and the other holding my phone checking the radar. Looked very ominous both sky and radar. Got done just as a drop landed on my cheek. And then it cleared up and became a great evening!

 

 

Mowing when the grass is long and wet is one of the most disgusting yardwork tasks possible.  

 

I knew I had to get it done yesterday... particularly after the wind in the afternoon.   It was completely dry and soooo much easier.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Mowing when the grass is long and wet is one of the most disgusting yardwork tasks possible.

 

I knew I had to get it done yesterday... particularly after the wind in the afternoon. It was completely dry and soooo much easier. :)

Looked pretty wet down your way today, was shocked we stayed completely dry.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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00Z GFS and 00Z Canadian starting to hint at the troughy pattern relaxing later next week now.   00Z GFS is pretty warm for next weekend.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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00Z GFS and 00Z Canadian starting to hint at the troughy pattern relaxing later next week now. 00Z GFS is pretty warm for next weekend.

The model updates are back!

 

Always a good sign that things are trending towards possibly appearing to trend less troughy.

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