June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

More cool members showing up on the 12z ensembles, in the long range:

 

Also seems to be a tendency toward this coming week's troughing lingering around for a bit longer, with a slower warm up.

[TT-SEA]

More cool members showing up on the 12z ensembles, in the long range:

 

image.png

 

Also seems to be a tendency toward this coming week's troughing lingering around for a bit longer, with a slower warm up.

Are you posting things that you like?

 

Real objective. I never do that!

 

Reality is then I have to listen to you complain about it for an hour. When everyone here does it.

 

Troughing dissolves... summer returns. Best way to describe the 12Z ECMWF.

[Jesse]

12z Euro is pretty nice.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro is pretty nice.

Yes... looks like normal summer weather without the extremes starting in a few days.

[Front Ranger]

Are you posting things that you like?

 

Real objective. I never do that!

 

Reality is then I have to listen to you complain about it for an hour. When everyone here does it.

 

Troughing dissolves... summer returns. Best way to describe the 12Z ECMWF.

 

But certainly not to anything close to the warmth seen earlier this month.

 

Could end up a very close to normal month most places.

[TT-SEA]

But certainly not to anything close to the warmth seen earlier this month.

 

Could end up a very close to normal month most places.

No kidding. Did I say it was going to be 100?? There is a nice middle ground between the last couple weeks!

[Front Ranger]

No kidding. Did I say it was going to be 100?? There is a nice middle ground between the last couple weeks!

 

Whoa, buddy. You said "summer returns", which would indicate going back to something. Whatever.

 

The main point is, troughing only gets you down to normal anomalies these days!

[TT-SEA]

Whoa, buddy. You said "summer returns", which would indicate going back to something. Whatever.

 

The main point is, troughing only gets you down to normal anomalies these days!

Yeah... 546DM heights and 850mb temps of 0C will be fading and summer returns. Not hot. Just nice.

[Timmy Supercell]

Which ones?

 

At least the GFS. But it is at the tail end of the month, so it may or may not be reliable.

 

Just saying, it's being shown. 

[Jesse]

[DareDuck]

Coming up to Seattle Thursday for the US game at Centurylink. We looking at scattered light showers with mostly cloudy skies with temps in the low 60s?

[stuffradio]

Someone needs to post more warm weather posts so I can keep the ratio of cold weather posts getting liked to warm weather posts being liked close to being even.

[Deweydog]

I like tacos and burritos.

[James Jones]

Someone needs to post more warm weather posts so I can keep the ratio of cold weather posts getting liked to warm weather posts being liked close to being even.

It looks like a benign summer pattern may be starting in about a week. Summer is warm.

 

It's important to note though, that IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN FOR PDX TO HIT 100+. We wouldn't want Flatiron to get all panicky thinking somebody might have implied this.

[Deweydog]

Been a week now since we toyed with 100 degrees.

 

Hmmm.

[Jesse]

About as perfect as a June day can get today.

[Front Ranger]

It looks like a benign summer pattern may be starting in about a week. Summer is warm.

 

It's important to note though, that IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN FOR PDX TO HIT 100+. We wouldn't want Flatiron to get all panicky thinking somebody might have implied this.

 

From time to time, you weirdly single me out. It's become a trend. I welcome the attention, JJ, but it is misplaced. When it comes to angst about future PNW weather patterns, I lag well behind several. There are others on here who easily care more about whether PDX hits 100+.

 

Now if OLM hits 100...

[Jesse]

When was the last time we had thicknesses around 535dm in mid-June?

 

The 6/10/2008 trough comes to mind, but that was definitely more impressive than this one is looking to be. If I remember correctly thicknesses got down around 530dm that time.

[ShawniganLake]

It's probably going to scorch at some point in July to make up for this.

[Jesse]

It's probably going to scorch at some point in July to make up for this.

What if this is making up for last weekend?

[Front Ranger]

I like to think that the weather is usually making up for what gets posted on this forum.

[Jesse]

I like to think that the weather is usually making up for what gets posted on this forum.

We need to be careful, or Bainbridge will be schooling all of us on the law of averages soon.

[ShawniganLake]

What if this is making up for last weekend?

Nope. That can't be right.

[Jesse]

Nope. That can't be right.

Good point. Last weekend may very well have been making up for December 2013.

[Deweydog]

When was the last time we had thicknesses around 535dm in mid-June?

 

The 6/10/2008 trough comes to mind, but that was definitely more impressive than this one is looking to be. If I remember correctly thicknesses got down around 530dm that time.

Yeah, it's not terribly unusual. We're right in the period of transition where we head into the two months or so where it's unheard of.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be close!

 

http://s33.postimg.org/fnsj46xa7/16061302_PDT.jpg

Nice!!!

 

I totally forgot. I'll work on the winner's swag basket tomorrow.

[MossMan]

Kind of March like out there. Not a big fan of March, especially March weather in June.  

[Phil]

Modeling puts a 600+dm ridge over the 4-Corners next week. Statistically, that's the strongest telltale sign of a hot summer nationally (particularly over the Plains/Midwest) during a developing Niña.

 

Since 1979, every year featuring a 600+dm ridge on/before June 20th was hotter than average over the lower 48, and every developing/preexisting -ENSO summer to feature such a ridge eventually developed "heat domes" in July and/or August. Every single one of them.

 

So, it appears the analogs suggesting widespread nationwide warmth have merit, and it's no surprise that these years tend to be -ENSO/+PDO, a reflection of an AAM/forcing state undergoing large scale transition (as we last observed in 2012).

[Jesse]

Nice morning.

[stuffradio]

What if this is making up for last weekend?

Cycles my friend, cycles...

[Phil]

Cycles my friend, cycles...

Something like that for now. I might've mentioned this a few days ago, but warm season anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC (during an AAM drop) favors another warm period, probably centered late June and/or early July, as there'll be a natural retrogressive tendency to any ridge that tries to set up near the west coast.

[Jesse]

Cycles my friend, cycles...

I'm not the one bellyaching about the inevitable shift to cool or even just normal after near record warmth the last 2 1/2 years.

 

Cycles.

[Phil]

Just typical intraseasonal wavefield fluctuations.

 

Heights will rise into AK/far NPAC following the secession of EPAC/WHEM forcing next week, so the anomalously deep troughing (locally) will relax for a few weeks. It's temporary, however, and it will reinitiate.

 

There will probably be a further consolidation of EHEM/Niña forcing and -AAM/-PNA in July, so not only will toughing return, but it'll probably be more "anomalous" than the upcoming period, relatively speaking.

Here's the post in reference. While the progression is fairly straightforward, the timing isn't and I might have to fine tune it somewhat.

 

Keep in mind, I've been biased slow with everything so far this spring/summer, so that might be the case here as well.

[Deweydog]

I'm not the one bellyaching about the inevitable shift to cool or even just normal after near record warmth the last 2 1/2 years.

 

Cycles.

I'm so proud of you. Sounds like Flatiron finally got you straightened out after your climate change derailment.

[Jesse]

I'm so proud of you. Sounds like Flatiron finally got you straightened out after your climate change derailment.

There can be cycles within a warming background trend. I don't think I've ever said anything that ran counter to that.

[Front Ranger]

I'm so proud of you. Sounds like Flatiron finally got you straightened out after your climate change derailment.

#iceage2017

#portlandthenewjuneau

[Phil]

#iceage2017

#portlandthenewjuneau

Someone's PDO ring must've turned red.

[Jesse]

Someone's PDO ring must've turned red.

Or blue.

[Jesse]

Is the Euro updating for anyone?

[TT-SEA]

Is the Euro updating for anyone?

 

 

Got it from another site... looks like flat ridging for next week with heights in the 576DM-580DM range.