June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 240-hour map from the 12Z ECMWF:

http://oi65.tinypic.com/2e1dhxz.jpg

[jcmcgaffey]

Not sure why, haha. Either way we're talking about semantics in the underlying grand scheme.

 

Regardless of the bumps and blips over the next two weeks, we're looking at the same low frequency tendencies, these being a gradual overall transition towards a -PNA/-AAM integral through the month of June, into/through the month of July, with the first half of June running significantly warmer than average, and the second half running notably cooler than the first half (possibly below average overall, though that's more likely to occur sometime in July).

This looks to be fairly accurate so far although we are not quite to the 2nd half of the month yet and the cool down has already occurred.  The statement of a cool down after a period of heat is expected but the statement of the cool down being enough to possibly even the month out or slightly below avg would be quite the feat but will give props if that ends up happening.  Looks to heat up a little more later this week though. 

[Phil]

Is the Euro updating for anyone?

Yeah, cooler than average through day 7, warmer than average days 8-10. Axis of strongest ridging remains offshore as expected, huge anticyclonic breaker overturns starting day 7, so you get that aforementioned period of warming/ridging there towards the end.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, cooler than average through day 7, warmer than average days 8-10. Axis of strongest ridging remains offshore as expected, huge anticyclonic breaker overturns starting day 7, so you get that aforementioned period of warming/ridging there towards the end.

 

Just a real short excursion to normal 500mb heights right?    Then we really get into even "more anomalous" troughing with 546DM heights or lower for most of July and August?  

 

Assuming 546DM would be even more anomalous in July and August than it is now in mid-June and that is what is happening this week.  

[Phil]

Just a real short excursion to normal 500mb heights right? Then we really get into even "more anomalous" troughing with 546DM heights or lower for most of July and August?

Trying to start another fight with me?

 

I never once suggested the entirety of July and/or August would feature troughing (let alone to a more anomalous extent vs what's currently ongoing).

[Jesse]

Just a real short excursion to normal 500mb heights right? Then we really get into even "more anomalous" troughing with 546DM heights or lower for most of July and August?

 

Assuming 546DM would be even more anomalous in July and August than it is now in mid-June and that is what is happening this week.

Broken record.

[Front Ranger]

Just a real short excursion to normal 500mb heights right? Then we really get into even "more anomalous" troughing with 546DM heights or lower for most of July and August?

 

Assuming 546DM would be even more anomalous in July and August than it is now in mid-June and that is what is happening this week.

I think he's been pretty clear - he's expecting the overall pattern to be increasingly troughy as the summer goes on. July and August being more anomalous in the lower heights direction than June.

[Phil]

I think he's been pretty clear - he's expecting the overall pattern to be increasingly throughy as the summer goes on. July and August being more anomalous in the lower heights direction than June.

Yeah, pretty much this. He's been obsessively digging for every possible loophole in my posts, as of late.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, pretty much this.

I expect Tim will next need to clarify that "troughy" in July or August really isn't that bad, nothing like the current trough-zilla.

 

If only there was some sort of anomaly to measure how NICE the weather is.

[TT-SEA]

Trying to start another fight with me?

 

I never once suggested the entirety of July and/or August would feature troughing (let alone to a more anomalous extent vs what's currently ongoing). I do, however, anticipate more anomalous period of troughing during mid/late July, and another one is August. This is an intraseasonal/intramonthly forecast.

 

Even the troughiest summers feature periods of ridging. The idea that I'd suggested otherwise is ludicrous.

 

 

You said troughing in July would be more anomalous than this current period of anomalous troughing. 

[Deweydog]

You said troughing in July would be more anomalous that this current period of anomalous troughing.

Jesus ******* Christ, Tim.

[Front Ranger]

You said troughing in July would be more anomalous that this current period of anomalous troughing.

Can you find a period of troughing in a previous July that was more anomalous than the current troughy period? I think you can. I bet one could find at least 5-10 such periods.

[TT-SEA]

I think he's been pretty clear - he's expecting the overall pattern to be increasingly troughy as the summer goes on. July and August being more anomalous in the lower heights direction than June.

 

 

Pretty hard to do... to be more anomalous than this we would need about the same 500mb heights as we have now.     Or it would not be more anomalous.

 

552DM in late July is about as anomalous as 546DM right now.   So we would need 546DM or so in late July to be more anomalous.  

 

We are at 546DM with an 850mb temp of 0C tomorrow.

[Phil]

You said troughing in July would be more anomalous that this current period of anomalous troughing.

Relative to average for the month of July? Sure.

 

I never once suggested the entire month would feature a more anomalous trough vs the current one, or that every day of the month would feature troughing.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty hard to do... to be more anomalous than this we would need about the same 500mb heights as we have now. Or it would not be more anomalous.

 

552DM in late July is about as anomalous as 546DM right now. So we would need 546DM or so in late July to be more anomalous.

 

We are at 546DM with an 850mb temp of 0C tomorrow.

So you're basing this off 1 day? Seems silly, given this is shaping up to be a nearly 2 week period of general troughing and below normal heights.

[TT-SEA]

I expect Tim will next need to clarify that "troughy" in July or August really isn't that bad, nothing like the current trough-zilla.

 

If only there was some sort of anomaly to measure how NICE the weather is.

 

 

I think July and August will probably feature mostly flat ridging with a few warm spells as the ridging bulges westward at times.     Much like 1988.  

[Phil]

Feels like I'm watching that MarcoRoboto debate again.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, pretty much this. He's been obsessively digging for every possible loophole in my posts, as of late.

 

 

No loopholes.       Normal progression here.

[Phil]

Was going to respond, but..nope. Deja vu all over again. I'm not continuing this crap.

[TT-SEA]

Deja vu all over again. I'm not continuing this crap.

 

 

Good!   

 

We are talking about July and August... easy stuff around here.  Even September is pretty easy.    Probably no real extremes this year given the pattern shaping up across the US.   

 

We should shift the discussion to what will happen in the fall and winter.

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles look slightly slightly troughier than the operational in the long range, overall.

[TT-SEA]

Euro ensembles look slightly slightly troughier than the operational in the long range, overall.

 

Splitting hairs as you know by your wording...  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zr9SIG.png

[Bryant]

Jesus ******* Christ, Tim.

Pretty much

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much

 

Growling puppy dog again.

[Front Ranger]

Sure.

 

Comes down to the definition of anomalous and I showed my math.  

 

Bottom line is that July and August look really easy this year as with most years.   And probably September as well.    

 

Based off ONE day.

[TT-SEA]

Based off ONE day.

 

 

From a 500mb perspective... this is a robustly anomalous 10-day troughing period.  

 

To be expected... June of 1988 had a similar period for 2 weeks.    

[Bryant]

From a 500mb perspective... this is a robustly anomalous 10-day troughing period.

 

To be expected... June of 1988 had a similar period for 2 weeks.

You act as if we are going to mirror 1988 to perfection... Never happens

[TT-SEA]

Some heavy rain here now... no thunder.   Looks like that is more possible tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

You act as if we are going to mirror 1988 to perfection... Never happens

 

No... just in general.   Probably a little warmer since the PDO is higher and the Nina is a little slower to get going this year.   

[Bryant]

No... just in general. Probably a little warmer since the PDO is higher and the Nina is a little slower to get going this year.

D**n that PDO for driving the weather

[TT-SEA]

D**n that PDO for driving the weather

 

 

A little more pronounced in the warm season of course.  

[Bryant]

A little more pronounced in the warm season of course.

The progatory forcing associated with the MJO (which promotes a back and forth in circulations) is fading, and the low frequency standing ENSO forcing is taking over. This Nina is about to get it's act together real quick here

[TT-SEA]

The progatory forcing associated with the MJO is fading, and the low frequency standing ENSO forcing is taking over. This Nina is about to get it's act together real quick here

 

 

Great.   Did the same thing in 1889 and 1988.     

[Front Ranger]

From a 500mb perspective... this is a robustly anomalous 10-day troughing period.  

 

To be expected... June of 1988 had a similar period for 2 weeks.    

 

But you used the 546 dam number. From one day. Are you gonna do a one day comparison in July? C'mon, this is just annoying.

[TT-SEA]

But you used the 546 dam number. From one day. Are you gonna do a one day comparison in July? C'mon, this is just annoying.

 

 

Whatever.  

 

We are in the middle of a 10-day deep troughing period.   Its not one day.   Its bottoming out at 546DM for a couple days.  

 

We were down to 548DM late last week as well.   

[Tyler Mode]

Heavy shower just passed. 1.97"/hour on the rainfall rate.

 

Down to 60 degrees after a high of 64.

[Phil]

The new ECMWF weeklies are out. They just keep trending hotter and hotter across the country, especially for mid/late July. Not a single state below normal, but the immediate WA/OR coasts and far NE are spared the worst.

 

There's now a +20F contour showing up during week 6 on the 51 member ensemble mean in KS/MO/IL. On the dailies/individuals, there are many with widespread +30F to +40F anomalies over the Plains/Central US.

[TT-SEA]

The new ECMWF weeklies are out. They just keep trending hotter and hotter across the country, especially for mid/late July. Not a single state below normal, but the immediate WA/OR coasts and Maine are spared the worst.

 

There's now a +20F contour showing up during week 6 on the 51 member ensemble mean in KS/MO/IL. On the dailies/individuals, there are many with widespread +30F to +40F anomalies over the Plains/Central US.

 

 

Perfection.   A little above normal but no extreme heat here.  

 

These nationwide blowtorch years are some of the best summers here.    

[Phil]

Perfection. A little above normal but no extreme heat here.

 

These nationwide blowtorch years are some of the best summers here.

I think it might be overdoing the heat, though northern Canada and the Arctic are chillier this run with a stronger +AO/-PNA signal.

 

The proposed solution would be more extreme temperature wise than the dust bowl even after accounting for observed climate change, so I don't buy it. The trend is notable, however, and the model is persistent with the strongest forcing west of 100E.

[Front Ranger]

Whatever.  

 

We are in the middle of a 10-day deep troughing period.   Its not one day.   Its bottoming out at 546DM for a couple days.  

 

We were down to 548DM late last week as well.   

 

Exactly. And yet you were insisting the July troughing period had to feature 546dm to meet Phil's requirements. What if we see a week in July with an average of 558dm? That would be pretty darn troughy, even if it never got down to 546.

 

You never answered my question. Can you find troughy periods (7-10 days) in previous Julys that had greater below normal height anomalies than what we're seeing with this troughy period? I bet you can find several. It's not like it's unheard of, which is what you're trying to make it out to be.