June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The idea of an Aleutian/NPAC trough (+PNA) is utterly ridiculous and will not come to fruition.

 

 

Then flat ridging.   Troughing will be focused more north.

[Phil]

Have to go into meeting... not time to debate.

 

Based on that then... we must be expecting a July and August with highs in the 50s and 60s here. Good luck with that forecast.

 

What happened in 1988? That was a JAS full of 70s and 80s and sunshine here with almost no rain... and a few excursions into the 90s.

Huh? Dude, here's every warm-season +ENSO to -ENSO transition since 1979. The -PNA/offshore ridge is actually the typical response. It's the norm under such circumstances.

 

[Jesse]

OK.    150 years of history.  

 

I am talking about evolving into you a summer pattern you will love.   

 

Who is forecasting -5 or -7 departures for JAS?   

 

You were just talking about a trough centered offshore. That is a pattern that we had the last two summers, and those were two of the nastiest in history heat and humidity wise.

 

We can have summer troughing over us without things being in the 50s and 60s all summer. The fact that you feel the need to take it to that extreme when people talk about the mean trough position being centered over us throughout the summer mainly exposes your anxiety.

[Phil]

Then flat ridging.   Troughing will be focused more north.

The vast majority of warm season transitions into La Niña are troughy in the PNW during J/A/S. What evidence do you have to suggest this year won't behave similarly?

[TT-SEA]

You were just talking about a trough centered offshore. That is a pattern that we had the last two summers, and those were two of the nastiest in history heat and humidity wise.

 

We can have summer troughing over us without things being in the 50s and 60s all summer. The fact that you feel the need to take it to that extreme when people talk about the mean trough position being centered over us throughout the summer mainly exposes your anxiety.

 

 

More anomalous than next week?   That is very anomalous.   546DM heights all of July and August?  

[Jesse]

More anomalous than next week?   That is very anomalous.   546DM heights all of July and August?  

 

Doesn't take much of a genius to figure out that the 500mb mean rises in July and August relative to mid-June.

 

You are just being dramatic. Having trouble accepting that this summer will likely be cooler than the last two. It's been obvious for weeks now.

[Phil]

I'm not saying it will be constantly troughy. There will be periods of ridging/+PNA in every transitional year, as intraseasonal forcings and wave interactions always vary. It will be troughier than average in the means, however, during J/A/S.

[Phil]

More anomalous than next week? That is very anomalous. 546DM heights all of July and August?

 

Anomalous = relative to average. I'm sure the troughing will be weaker in absolute terms, but possibly stronger in anomalous terms. Again anomalies, not absolutes.

[Jesse]

Anomalous = relative to average. I'm sure the troughing will be weaker in absolute terms, but possibly stronger in anomalous terms.

 

Hard concept for some people to wrap their heads around, apparently.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't take much of a genius to figure out that the 500mb mean rises in July and August relative to mid-June.

 

You are just being dramatic. Having trouble accepting that this summer will likely be cooler than the last two. It's been obvious for weeks now.

I would love this summer to be cooler.   

 

You can't accept that fact.

 

You are more concerned that I will be unhappy than anything else.

 

Its pretty hard for me to be unhappy in JAS!   

[Timmy Supercell]

Doesn't take much of a genius to figure out that the 500mb mean rises in July and August relative to mid-June.

 

You are just being dramatic. Having trouble accepting that this summer will likely be cooler than the last two. It's been obvious for weeks now.

 

Yeah, no surprise that it's going to be cooler, but considering how extreme last few summers were, we don't necessarily have to have a normal or below summer for it be cooler.

[Phil]

Hard concept for some people to wrap their heads around, apparently.

Lost count of how many times I've repeated that. Probably set an internet forum world record.

[Jesse]

I would love this summer to be cooler.   

 

You can't accept that fact.

 

You are more concerned that I will be unhappy than anything else.

 

Its pretty hard for me to be unhappy in JAS!   

 

I would be love for you to be happy this summer. Way less frantic 10 day Canadian map and drizzle survivor journal posts to wade through.

 

Unfortunately, finding happiness in our normal (not 2014-16) climate is ultimately your own demon to battle.

[Phil]

I do like the way the North Pacific high is keeping that ridiculous blob of heat over Arizona/New Mexico at bay. Hopefully it gets shunted east eventually and the southern Plains fry.

Screw you.

[TT-SEA]

Hard concept for some people to wrap their heads around, apparently.

 

 

Not much difference in a couple weeks.   The trough next week is very anomalous.   And Phil is saying even more anomalous.     Who is being dramatic?   

[Phil]

Not much difference in a couple weeks. The trough next week is very anomalous. And Phil is saying even more anomalous. Who is being dramatic?

It's not even close to the lowest 5yr standard deviation, let alone the decadal standard deviation or anything close to record breaking.

 

I think you've forgotten what deep troughing looks like.

[Jesse]

It's not even close to the lowest 5yr standard deviation, let alone close to anything record breaking. I think you've forgotten what deep troughing looks like.

 

It looks terrifying. The primal fear response is still there

[Phil]

It looks terrifying. The primal fear response is still there

Blue is evil.

[TT-SEA]

It's not even close to the lowest 5yr standard deviation, let alone the decadal standard deviation or anything close to record breaking.

 

I think you've forgotten what deep troughing looks like.

 

 

I know exactly what it looks like.     Next week is a deep trough.  Don't fear it all... looks sort of fun.  

[TT-SEA]

I would be love for you to be happy this summer. Way less frantic 10 day Canadian map and drizzle survivor journal posts to wade through.

 

Unfortunately, finding happiness in our normal (not 2014-16) climate is ultimately your own demon to battle.

 

Not at all. 

 

I would prefer JAS of 2012 to the heat of the last 2 years.    

 

I did not complain like you... but its not my preference for it to be uncomfortable hot.    

 

You have created this world where unless its the hottest summer ever then I will be miserable.  Just the opposite.   

[Phil]

I know exactly what it looks like. Next week is a deep trough. Don't fear it all... looks sort of fun.

I never said you feared it, and yeah it's a deep trough. However, it's nothing extraordinary, and it'd be easy for more *anomalous* troughing to develop as Niña forcing/-AAM consolidates through the summer.

 

Note: I'm speaking in *relative to average* terms.

[TT-SEA]

My ideal summer... every day has a high of 75-80 with one day of rain each week.  

 

That is certainly not a ridgy summer.  

[Jesse]

Not at all. 

 

I would prefer JAS of 2012 to the heat of the last 2 years.    

 

I did not complain like you... but its not my preference for it to be uncomfortable hot.    

 

You have created this world where unless its the hottest summer ever then I will be miserable.  Just the opposite.   

 

I didn't complain much the last few summers, relative to how bad it was.

 

I recall you praising the heat and humidity frequently. Maybe you were just trolling.

 

It would be great if this was a summer we both would like. At least according to this new definition of summer weather you suddenly are claiming you like.

[Front Ranger]

Yes. The troughing seems to just dissolve later next week.

 

Looking over 500mb patterns for so many periods in June in history as I have done in the past... that seems to be the most likely evolution as well.

It will soon take less troughing to produce cool anomalies. Your warm JAS call is looking shaky.

[TT-SEA]

It will soon take less troughing to produce cool anomalies. Your warm JAS call is looking shaky.

 

 

I was not that far from normal in my JAS forecast.

[TT-SEA]

I didn't complain much the last few summers, relative to how bad it was.

 

I recall you praising the heat and humidity frequently. Maybe you were just trolling.

 

It would be great if this was a summer we both would like. At least according to this new definition of summer weather you suddenly are claiming you like.

 

 

New definition?    I did not create 2014 and 2015... it just happened.   We found ways to make it more enjoyable.  

 

You were pretty bad the last 3 summers.    You may not have realized it.

 

Tons of dead trees in the forests around here.   Would be terrible for summers like that to continue.

[Phil]

I was not that far from normal in my JAS forecast.

Are you still thinking July will blowtorch? Honest question, as I could actually envision a very hot 5-10 day stretch during the first half of July, but only under a discontinuous retrogression scenario.

 

That's assuming there's residual anticyclone/EPO block present when forcing begins to lose interference and consolidate in the IO/MT. Otherwise, it's probably a significantly cooler than average month as there'd be no heatwave during the transition.

[TT-SEA]

Are you still thinking July will blowtorch? Honest question.

 

I could actually envision a very hot 5-10 day stretch during the first half of July under a discontinuous retrogression scenario. That's assuming there's residual anticyclone/EPO block present when forcing begins to consolidate in the IO/MT. Otherwise, it's probably a significantly cooler than average month.

 

 

No... not thinking blowtorch now.    But a little above normal.

[Phil]

No... not thinking blowtorch now. But a little above normal.

Cool, that sounds more reasonable to me. I think July could go one of two ways, both of which are equally possible as of now, in my opinion.

 

1) I think if we can somehow maintain a residual anticyclone/EPO into early July, a brief heatwave is possible during the first half of the month, during the what looks to be a significant transition into a -AAM/-PNA following the stabilization of the Niña cell. A discontinuous retrogression would result as heights try to build south of the Aleutians, with the top of the ridge turning over, sliding into the PNW.

 

2) If the anticyclone/EPO degrades in late June, then a heatwave is unlikely, and the month will likely finish notably cooler than average in the PNW, as trough/vorticity maximum rides the redeveloping offshore ridge S/SE, into the GOA and/or PNW.

[Jesse]

Must be a slow meeting.

[Phil]

New ECMWF weeklies are out. The standout signal is that big offshore ridge/-PNA look in the height anomalies, especially from mid-July onward. Very warm over the US, also most anomalous during the second half of July.

 

Also supports the idea of a mid/late June poleward NPAC anticyclone/-EPO, favoring a relaxing of the western troughing late June/early July. Never gets ridging centered over the PNW, though. Wants to put it offshore, which makes the most physical sense, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Must be a slow meeting.

 

 

It is.   I keep typing like I am taking notes.  

[TT-SEA]

Radar looks interesting!  

[Phil]

Haha, the d10-15 EPS mean is terrifying. Literally every state in the lower 48 is above average. Only WA/OR are near average.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, the d10-15 EPS mean is terrifying. Literally every state in the lower 48 is above average. Only WA/OR are near average.

 

 

Terrifying?   

 

Who is being dramatic?  

[Bryant]

Terrifying?

 

Who is being dramatic?

Once again, different strokes for different folks. Obviously his use of terrifying symbolises that he is not a fan.

[Deweydog]

Opinons!!!

 

Get 'em straight people before the PDO decides for you!

[TT-SEA]

Once again, different strokes for different folks. Obviously his use of terrifying symbolises that he is not a fan.

 

 

Right.

 

If I used the term 'terrifying' to describe any pattern it would be mocked endlessly.    Got to be on the perceived right side of the argument and then its perfectly fine.    

[Phil]

Terrifying?

 

Who is being dramatic?

I obviously meant it jokingly. Why take everything so literally?

[Bryant]

Right.

 

If I used the term 'terrifying' to describe any pattern it would be mocked endlessly. Got to be on the perceived right side of the argument and then its perfectly fine.

Back to the "If I did this" BS again? C'mon Tim, that's pathetic.